Trump’s Latest Dancing Partner: Those Trying to Indict Him
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If you think politics bears more than a passing resemblance to theater, as the late activist Harvey Milk argued, then it’s worth dusting off a classic 1975 screenplay by John Kander and Fred Ebb to capture this topical moment in Republican politics to explain politics. Towards the end of the first act Chicago, celebrity killer Velma Kelly comes to an uncomfortable realization: her star power is limited by the flood of news, and to stay on top, she needs a fresh twist to catch the attention of the fickle public. What she needs is an employee. “I just can’t do it on my own,” actresses like Chita Rivera, Bebe Neuwirth and Catherine Zeta-Jones sang in a mixture of panic and defeat.
Right now, Donald Trump is America’s real Velma Kelly: backed into a corner, his ability to command headlines weak, and his future depends on aligning himself with the news that poses his greatest threat. And in this case, his Roxy Hart is not one person, but several – all those in New York, Washington and Georgia who are working to make Trump the first ex-president in history to face criminal charges. Without the dance partner of legal threats, Trump’s return to power is less certain; With prosecutors like Alvin Bragg at odds, Trump could take his variety act back to the top thanks to a public willing to play fast and loose.
Trump’s legal circle appears to be narrowing, with the Manhattan District Attorney appearing closest to filing an indictment over alleged fraudulent accounting that bought an adult movie star to remain silent about an affair just before the 2016 election. Elsewhere, Georgia prosecutors continue their investigations into Trump’s clumsy efforts to reverse Joe Biden’s victory in the state. Federal prosecutors are investigating Trump’s handling of classified documents after he left the White House and his role in the deadly US Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.
With characteristic courage, Trump has used these campaign-end-to-everyone-else threats to rally. Other candidates would see them as daunting obstacles to power; For Trump, they are a useful commodity that can further persuade his flock that he—and they—confront elite victimization. Candidates who face far less danger would speak in a about these challenges sotto voce; Trump turns her from center stage to his 11 o’clock belt.
“Either the Deep State destroys America or we destroy the Deep State,” Trump said Saturday night at his rally in Waco, Texas, the timing and location of which was difficult to ignore. As Americans recalled—and some even mourned—the deadly US government siege of a cult compound in Waco exactly 30 years ago, Trump nurtured his supporters’ distrust of the government and even fact-based history.
For a time earlier this year, Republicans seemed at least open to exploring other alternatives to a third Trump nomination for the White House. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed the likeliest contender. But the urge to be RonCurious has faded, and his poll ratings have also been hit. Trump’s precarious position has forced Republicans – and even some independents – to reconsider their dislike of the ex-president. They may not love Trump, but they can’t help but harbor a degree of suspicion when they fear that a payment designed to spare a married businessman the embarrassment of having a porn star detail their alleged sexual encounters would put an end to Trump . The potential accounting crimes involved, and perhaps even undervaluing Manhattan real estate to avoid tax debts, isn’t great, but probably isn’t disqualifying in the minds of many Republican voters either.
Hence the rally moment behind Trump. Much like an antihero — in politics, theater, and the lyrics of Taylor Swift — the public finds the pull to cheer them on strong.
Without the legal threat Trump is glaring at, he would have to rely even more heavily on his record, his grievances with other corners of government, or perhaps even outline what exactly he would do if elected to a second term. (Aside from bringing “revenge” against his enemies, of course.) Even then, these aren’t exactly enough to shield a skeptical GOP sentence against more Trump bubbles just two years after he left the White House begin to heal. The uncertainty surrounding the impeachment hearings and the drama that followed brings with them the same concerns that accompanied both of Trump’s storied impeachments, events that have forced many Republicans to defend Trump lest they be excommunicated and recast in this production.
Of course, as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie noted, indictments don’t help anyone. But Trump could prove that they don’t exactly hurt either. The former president has so far raised millions from his self-announced impending arrest. The threat to his candidacy has even garnered support from some who have flirted with NeverTrumpism. The tenacious streak within the GOP that Trump has nurtured for years is hard to shake, and the defiance incumbent on Trumpism has altered the political DNA of many of those constituents.
It’s unlikely Trump would have been as strong heading into the second quarter of this calendar year at this point without the unexpected boost from prosecutors. His mainstream defenders don’t like that very much, but they’ll take anything that increases the Republican Party’s chances of making Joe Biden a president-for-one-term. Much like Trump’s realization that he needed something to spice up his performance, the GOP is using its own Velma Kelly-esque “act of desperation” to find a new partner. But nobody in the starting blocks has anything like Trump’s star power. At least not at this point in the first act of 2024.
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