XFL Betting Preview, Friday Recaps
Friday brought us a day deeper into our NFL season retreats at Tuley’s Takes home office, but a day closer to more football as the XFL season begins Saturday.
I know a lot of people say it’s an inferior kind of football, but it’s still football, the best betting sport with teams playing just one game a week and the way the points are scored . Also, we’ve had a lot of success in the past with these spring minor league football leagues as our emphasis on underdogs and unders fits well with leagues that have balanced teams. This is actually the third iteration of the XFL, which had its first year-long season in 2001 and then the 2020 restart that was cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic.
I was on board with the XFL when it made its smashing debut in 2001, covering every Las Vegas Outlaws game at Sam Boyd Stadium (if you’re looking at an old tape from the season opener with his battle for the ball in midfield). Instead of a coin toss, you can see me running onto the field to take a picture).
But what I remember most about the season was when a preseason game on NBC went into overtime and delayed the start of a “Saturday Night Live” episode starring Jennifer Lopez by 45 minutes. SNL founder Lorne Michaels was so upset that the league changed its rules to include a running clock to prevent this from happening again. I jumped on the Unders as the odds makers didn’t adjust the bet totals enough but I always regretted not making more money on this once in a lifetime opportunity as it really was a perfect storm. The 2020 version has also been good for under-weather, which has been the case for the other spring football attempts (AAF in 2019, USFL in 2022) due to the difficulty for offense to stay in sync after starting at zero to be so the defense is ahead of the attacks for the most part. The odds makers did a better job this time as they put all bet totals below 40 points and early bettors put them even lower. I made sure to get U37 in Saturday’s season opener between the Vegas Vipers and Arlington Renegades (see below) and posted it yesterday, so I hope readers caught that cue as they join us at the Unders . Pretty sure 3 of the 4 games this weekend will stay below their opening scores but not so confident against the closing lines (not far fetched to predict they will split 2-2 so doesn’t seem like an advantage to to bet blindly on the Unders at this point).
Another criticism I hear about these spring football leagues is “they’re players we’ve never heard of,” but there will certainly be many players from FCS/Division I-AA and lower levels of college football, who didn’t get much of a chance to make it to the NFL if you watch a lot of Power 5 college football, there are sure to be many well-known names on TV from across the country alongside many former NFL players looking for a second chance Broadcast games: WR Josh Gordon, WR Martavis Bryant, QB Ben DiNucci, QB Kyle Sloter, QB Jordan Ta’amu, QB Paxton Lynch, QB AJ McCarron, RB Matt Jones and LB Vic Beasley. Like I’ve told people, it’s no different than hampering new college football teams with their player rotations every year. In any case, it’s good that football will be back so soon! Moving on to our daily recaps of Friday’s betting action (a very light schedule featuring the NBA All-Star Break) and then offering our best bets for Saturday, starting with an NHL First-Period Over Parlay along with our previously posted XFL plays for opening weekend.
Flashback to Friday
NHL: The underdogs went 3-2 on Friday after upsets by the Blackhawks (+220 in a 4-3 win at Senators), Rangers (+115 in a 5-4 win at Oilers) and Wild (-105 in a 2-1 win against stars) . Road teams also led 3-2. Over 4-3.
CBB: There were zero top 25 teams in action on Friday, but we’ll see 19 in action on Saturday, including two games between ranked teams, both in the Big 12: No. Kansas State hosts No. 15 Iowa State as a 3-point home Favorites at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT and No. 5 Kansas host No. 9 Baylor as the 5.5-point home favorites at 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT.
Best NHL bet on Saturday
Flyers-Canucks 1P over 1.5 -180/Saber Sharks 1P over -190 (Parlay Payout +137): While we’re excited to play football with the XFL, we still consider this our best bet of the day despite losing on Friday. The Stars-Wild 1P Under 1.5 came through to a goalless draw for us in the first 20 minutes; However, the Ducks let us down again (they are 5-6 in their last 11 games) with their 1P over while the Kings were only 1-0 up. Still, it was worth trying for a +214 payoff, and we’re still crushing it with those parlays lately. So let’s get back to it as the Canucks have won 8 straight and are 15-2 in their last 17 as they are clearly the best 1P over team at 42-13 (76.4%) while the Flyers are the No. 7 team at 34-19, including 7-3 in their last 10. Meanwhile, the Sabers and Sharks are the No. 4 and No. 9 1P over teams, respectively, and have combined at 65-44 (59, 6%) hit. .
XFL Week 1 Best Bets
Vegas Vipers – Arlington Renegades under 37 (Saturday): We wanted to post this pick as soon as possible as there were still 37s on Friday and we predicted the stakes would be lower. And it was, because the only 37 I see early Saturday morning are at the Station Casinos here in Las Vegas. As we wrote above, we’ve seen the Unders dominate in all of these spring football leagues (XFL, AAF, USFL) and we’ve already seen all of these opening scores bet this way, so as always, keep looking get the best numbers you can find. I still think it’s worth a shot as I don’t expect 37 to be as big a “key number” as it used to be in the NFL, especially without PAT kicks as teams get a 1-point conversion from the can 2-yard line, 2-point conversion from the 5-yard line, or 3-point conversion from the 10-yard line.
Seattle Sea Dragons -1 at DC Defenders (Sunday): My dog-or-pass philosophy will be put to the test as I wish I had released this game when the Sea Dragons opened as underdogs. I backed them for pick ’em and now they’re as popular as they always should have been. Since there are no ties in the XFL, we think it’s okay to put -1 and risk a push if it lands on the number. I figured more bettors would jump on the bandwagon when they started hearing more about head coach Jim Haslett (2000 NFL Coach of the Year) and former Cowboys QB Ben DiNucci along with offensive coordinator June Jones, and that was by the Sea Dragons are up to -1.5 for most books through Saturday morning. I still believe they are the correct site, but laying points is at your own risk.
