XFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 3: Defenders, Roughnecks stay undefeated, Guardians search for first win

Unlike the opening week of the 2023 XFL season, Week 2 had only one game that came down to the final two minutes. However, punters were still excited as two underdogs (Battlehawks and Defenders) won outright and two favorites covered the spread (Brahmas and Roughnecks). For the first two weeks, the favorites took the moneyline and went straight up 5-3, but only 3-5 against the spread.

Week 3 begins Saturday night when the Sea Dragons tour to play the Vipers at 7pm ET (FX). Both teams are still looking for their first wins as they try to crawl out of the basement in the North division. Then on Sunday we have a triple header starting at 1:00pm ET between the Battlehawks and the Defenders in our nation’s capital (FX). St. Louis and DC are both unbeaten at the start of the season (2-0) but the defenders are the betting favorites (+300) on BetMGM with the Roughnecks to win the XFL Championship.

Below we’ll break down the XFL Week 3 best bets and give our predictions on how things could play out across the league:

MORE WEEK 3 XFL: DraftKings lineup

Table of Contents

XFL Week 3 picks, predictions

All odds courtesy of BetMGM

Seattle Sea Dragons at Vegas Vipers

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FX

  • spread: Sea Dragon -3
  • money line: Sea Dragons -160, Vipers +135
  • About Below: 38

The Sea Dragons and Vipers head into Week 3 in search of their first wins of the season after suffering two heavy losses last weekend. Seattle appeared to be in control of its game against the Battlehawks, but costly turnovers were part of its decline. The Vipers eventually made the quarterback substitution, benching Luis Perez for Brett Hundley; It didn’t have much of an impact, however, as Vegas’ offense only picked up six points in terrible field conditions, failing to stop the charging duo of Abram Smith and D’Eriq King.

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Fast forward to this week and it’s hard to trust the Sea Dragons putting three points down the road. They have the playmakers on offense and defense to be one of the best teams in the XFL, but QB Ben DiNucci didn’t do a great job protecting the ball (four turnovers) for two weeks. If Hundley gets into a groove with his receivers and the Vipers’ defense plays like it did in Week 1, Vegas should be able to keep that close and cover the spread.

Choose: sea ​​dragon 20, Vegas 18 (+3)

St Louis Battlehawks at DC Defenders

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FX

  • spread: Defender -2
  • money line: Battlehawks +110, Defenders -130
  • About Below: 35.5

The Battlehawks are underdogs on the road for the second straight week as they look to improve their tally to 3-0 against defenders on Sunday. St. Louis has yet to play a full game, but it doesn’t matter when you’ve got AJ McCarron, who looked like the best Tom Brady in the fourth quarter. Do they have any more late-game magic heading into this week’s competition? We’ll find out.

The defenders continue to play their football at both ends, leading to a crucial Week 2 win over the Vipers. DC used the two-QB system again with Jordan Ta’amu and D’Eriq King and helped turn the game in their favor. Ta’amu, King and RB Abram Smith gave the Vipers defense a hard time as they rushed for 229 yards and two touchdowns. On the defensive end, they held Vegas at 3.8 yards per play and released Hundley twice. As Sunday afternoon’s game begins, we should expect the defensemen to be successful against the Battlehawks’ running defense, which has allowed for 118 rushing yards per game. McCarron will face an aggressive DC defense that could lend itself to a turnover or two. Take the Defenders on the track and think of the UNDER too.

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Choose: Defenders 18 (-2), Battlehawks 15

Orlando Guardians at Arlington Renegades

Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FX

  • spread: Renegades -9.5
  • money line: Guardians +350, Renegades -450
  • About Below: 37.5

Orlando was the worst team in the XFL and has no identity on either side of football. Your two-week game almost reminds you of the Pittsburgh Maulers, who were the USFL’s worst team last summer and struggled every week.

The Renegades should win this game easily as their defense looks to recover after losing to Houston last week. We don’t know who will start as quarterback for the Guardians this week, as Paxton Lynch and Deondre Francois snapped under center. Lynch completed nine of 19 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. He was also sacked twice in their 18-point loss to the Brahmas. Meanwhile, Francois completed six of 13 passes for eight yards, a touchdown and an interception. If Dallas’ defense can create a few turnovers, QB Drew Plitt shouldn’t have to do much under center other than manage the game. However, if Plitt is struggling and unable to get the offense going, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kyle Sloter. Still, the Renegades cover that wide spread at home with a few defensive touchdowns.

Choose: Rogues 24 (-9.5), Guardians 12

San Antonio Brahmas with the Houston Roughnecks

Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2

  • spread: Brawlers -4.5
  • money line: Brahma +165, Brawlers -200
  • About Below: 37.5

The final game of Week 3 sees another state showdown, this time between the Brahmas and the Roughnecks. Houston struggled against the Renegades last week as they had a few turnovers, giving Dallas a three-point lead at halftime. However, the Roughnecks beat the Renegades 12-0 in the second half to remain undefeated.

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Houston will be tested again this weekend by the Brahmas, who claim a dominant win over Orlando. San Antonio couldn’t get their ground attack going with Kalen Ballage and Jacques Patrick but were able to air it out which bodes well for Week 3. Jack Coan completed 16 of 24 passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns, but he might find it difficult to repeat that feat this week against a physical, aggressive roughnecks defense that has 12 sacks and five interceptions in the first two weeks . At 4.5 points, we feel comfortable sharing that number with the Wade Phillips-led Roughnecks, who are a complete team and a contender to win it all.

Choose: Houston (-4.5) 24, San Antonio 17

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