2023 New York Yankees Betting Preview: Odds to win AL East, World Series, over/under win total, more

The 2023 Yankees are looking like a solid contender for their 28th World Series championship in franchise history and their first since ’09. The Yanks could very well have the best starting rotation in baseball, led by Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, and the offensive line will remain close to the top of the league in most offensive categories thanks to a nine-year, $360 million contract that newly titled Captain Aaron Judge in pinstripes.

The betting market also agrees that the Yankees are one of the top contenders to win the Commissioners Trophy this fall, giving them the second lowest odds of winning the 2023 World Series at +750 per DraftKings Sportsbook. New York also expects to win the AL East for the second straight year and is entering the year as a favorite at +110 odds.

Below we list the various New York Yankees futures markets that bettors can delve into and offer advice on how to approach betting on them.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2023 New York Yankees Regular Season Overall: Over or Under?

• OVER 94.5 wins (-105)
• UNDER 94.5 wins (-120)

Last season, the Yankees started the season with a 92-over/under win and surpassed that number with a 99-63 record. This year, the Yankees’ total regular-season wins have risen to 94.5 wins, which is a fair number for a team that appears to have gotten better in the offseason.

Even in a highly competitive AL East, the Yankees won 47 of their 76 division games, giving them a respectable 62 percent win rate. However, as MLB adopts a balanced schedule, New York will only play 13 games against division opponents instead of 19. While that might seem like a positive thing given the depth and competitiveness of the AL East, given the Yankees’ success within the division, it might affect their chances of 95 wins.

New York started last season as arguably the best team in baseball, going into the All-Star break with a 64-28 record, but it played .500 baseball to finish the regular season. Given how dominant they were in the first half, the Yankees were unlikely to maintain their .696 win ratio all season.

The Yankees still managed to post .500+ win odds on both home (.704) and away (.519) games, and only had one month (August) when they didn’t play a .500-ball (10-18). . So, which Yankees team will we see more of in 2023? The one who dominated the first half or prevailed in the second half?

We’ll be going for a mix between the two, with more consistency throughout the season leading to the Bronx Bombers eclipsing their 94.5 overall win in the regular season. Between an offense that ranked fourth in wRC+ (115) and a pitching staff that kept batsmen at the third-lowest xwOBA (.290), New York has a real shot at cashing in their overall win in the OVER regular season for a second consecutive season.

2023 New York Yankees odds for AL East

team	opportunities
New York Yankees	+110
Toronto Blue Jays	+215
Tampa Bay Rays	+380
Boston Red Sox	+1700
Baltimore Orioles	+2200

A team that’s likely to win nearly 95 games should also likely win its division, so it’s no surprise the Yankees are rated +110 as the team to beat in the AL East. While the Blue Jays’ chances of winning the AL East (+215) seem more enticing, it’s difficult to bet against a team that had a win rate of over .500 against every division opponent last season.

The AL East will likely be a two-team race between the Yankees and the Blue Jays, but you can never count out the Rays (+380). The Red Sox (+1700) have too many glaring holes in their roster to be in contention for an AL East title, and while the Orioles (+2200) put on an 83-79 season, they couldn’t beat a winning record line up their AL East opponents, something you can’t have when you’re fighting for the division title.

While we think the Yankees are on their way to another successful regular season, we listed the Blue Jays as our favorite division-win bet in our division odds preview. We believe the Jays’ odds should be slightly lower than +215, so we see some value for the Jays to win the AL East. as weather, It’s difficult to find value on the Yankees, as they are always a crowd pleaser and bettors tend to pay more premium to bet on them. The Yankees may not have betting value to win the AL East, but when you consider that the betting market gives them a 47.62 percent chance of winning the division, that tells you the market still ranks them as the most complete team in the AL East.

New York Yankees AL pennant odds 2023

• Yankees odds of winning the American League: +360 (implied probability: 21.74 percent)

The Yankees sit right behind the Astros and have the second-best odds of winning the American League at +360. New York has not won the AL pennant in over a decade (13 seasons) but has reached the ALCS three times in the past six seasons.

The Astros were the Yankees’ kryptonite, ending their hopes of winning the AL pennant the last three times. Houston’s roster is every bit as impressive as last season, if not more impressive, with 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu bolstering an already dangerous lineup. While they’ve had their struggles against the Astros in the postseason, it’s only a matter of time before Aaron Boone’s group breaks through to the World Series considering they’ve reached 50 percent of the ALCS for the past six years.

The betting market correctly priced the Yankees’ AL pennant odds, however They could still be a worthwhile bet at +360 for those who outperform the market with the Yankees.

2023 New York Yankees World Series odds

As previously mentioned, the Yankees have the second-best chance of winning the 2023 MLB World Series at +750, behind only the Astros (+600). Granted they can stay healthy, New York’s pitching rotation will be tough to get runs against October, and as long as they’re able to battle it out with runners in goal position, New York has a good chance as they always do this fall to hoist the commissioner’s trophy.

A modest bet on the Yankees to win it all in 2023 isn’t a bad way to dish out a chunk of your bankroll, but with the World Series odds market available throughout the season, it’s usually a good idea to hold off before completing it your bet. The odds probably won’t be 7.5-1 if they get off to a hot start again, but New York could be 10-1 if they start slow. Of course, this is all part of the gamble, but For now, we recommend sticking with the re-evaluation of the World Series markets after a month or so.