6 NFL mock draft surprises from Mel Kiper Jr’s latest first round projection
We’re approaching the NFL draft season, folks. We’ve removed five weeks from the Carolina Panthers, who are on the clock after receiving the No. 1 overall pick from the Bears, and dozens of questions remain.
Obviously, the Panthers are picking a first overall pick quarterback, but there’s still debate over who that will be. Then we have the rest of the top 10 and the remaining quarterbacks, each of which could potentially be ranked No. 1 — before we get to the incredible defensive talent in this class, which will be lower than it should be due to the scramble for passers.
Mel Kiper released his latest mock draft on Tuesday, and while Kiper’s mockery tends to polarize — there’s no doubt he has ties in the NFL that influence some of his decisions. So let’s dive into the biggest stories (and surprises) he sees emerge on draft night.
CJ Stroud goes 1st overall
This is becoming more and more likely. The Panthers have developed a soft landing spot for a rookie QB, and new quarterback coach Josh McCown gushed about Stroud before he was hired by Carolina, comparing him to Joe Burrow with more athletic advantages.
There’s still a chance the Panthers will defy conventional thinking and pick Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, but the prevailing view is that the team won’t pick Bryce Young because of his size. Frank Reich has made comments in the past about the importance of having a good statue under your belt, and Young doesn’t fit that mold.
The Seahawks take a quarterback?
From Russell Wilson’s second trade onwards, Seattle was expected to find their QB of the future in this draft, but that was pushed aside due to Geno Smith’s outburst in 2022, cementing the Comeback Player of the Year honors.
It’s definitely sensible logic to strike while the iron is hot and the team has the No. 5 standings, with Kiper bringing Anthony Richardson to Seattle. This would be an incredible landing spot where the pressure wouldn’t be immediate, and Richardson could adjust to the NFL over the next year or two without being asked to start before he’s ready.
With so many gaps Seattle has yet to fill, going quarterback with so much defensive talent on the board seems like a luxury, but this could be a really intriguing position in the draft to watch.
Not a big fall for Jalen Carter
Nobody, and I mean nobody, has had a worse six weeks than Carter when it comes to drafting. First there were legal troubles in Georgia that got Carter involved in a street race that resulted in the deaths of a Georgia player and a staff member (Carter did not object to reckless driving), and then Carter was nine pounds heavier on UGA Pro Day than Indianapolis, and was significantly more sluggish than the tape indicated.
Still, it wasn’t enough for Kiper to get him further down than 6th as Carter is the second defender off the board – heading to the Lions.
Detroit bolstered their secondary at free hand, a nice move that allowed them to focus on picking the best player available. There’s no doubt Carter is a force and has long been voted No. 1 when Chicago hasn’t been able to act down, so bringing him here on performance alone is a huge win.
The question is whether the last six weeks will put some teams off.
A bad year for top receivers
This class of WRs really isn’t great. Still, it’s equally surprising that no one comes off the board until pick #20, and it’s Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That 20 range feels right for him, but it seems very strange Smith-Njigba going ahead of TCU’s Quentin Johnson.
While this is a weak class, the WR position is so critical that I believe some are being taken sooner than expected – even if they’re ranges.
How long is Bijan Robinson waiting?
The running back position is in shambles in the NFL. We’re fast approaching the point where something needs to be done to step in and make sure these players, who routinely have the shortest careers in professional football, don’t just get used to a rookie contract and ditch it — never to have a significant one see payday.
This continues into the 2023 NFL Draft, with Kiper predicting that Texas’ Bijan Robinson will remain at the 27th pick through to the Buffalo Bills. This is entirely plausible and underscores why things are so ridiculous with this position at the moment. If that were 15 years ago, Robinson would be in contention for No. 1 overall and would absolutely not drop out of the top 5.
Here’s the thing: Teams are seeing players like Christian McCaffrey being dealt out for relative peanuts, Derrick Henry on the trading block and Ezekiel Elliot being cut. As a result, front offices are reluctant to overinvest or draw capital into the RB position.
The late 20’s feels right, but it’s wild that it is.
Watch Brian Bresee
Clemson defensive tackle Brian Bresee has been a quick climber since his strong performance at the combine, and that’s only picking up speed. Once firmly in the second round, Bresee climbs to 29th in the Kiper mock and lands with the Saints.
This is one of those players that could easily slip to the top on day two or be the “WOW!”. First round pick as the team picks him up in their teens. Bresee definitely feels like a player a team will fall in love with, so keep an eye on him as the draft season progresses.