Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 2

• We try to rank each game outcome by comparing the actual outcome to the range of possible outcomes that could occur given the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, with 100 representing the occasions where the process most closely reflects the actual outcome, and lower scores indicate a game where the outcome is not fully reflected in the balance of opportunities created.

Manchester United were stunned as Brentford clinched a 4-0 win in the late Premier League kick-off.

Four different goalscorers secured the result at half-time, although the expected goals show how Brentford capitalized on the chances they created themselves.

The Infogol model estimates the probability of the game ending 4-0 for the Bees at 2.2% based on expected goal counts.

There was also a 6.7% chance that Brentford would score four given his 1.74 xG. An afternoon to forget for United but the underlying figures show it wasn’t quite as bad as the backs will make it out to be tomorrow.

Arsenal 4-2 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 2.98-0.67
• Fairness Rating: 89.16
• Goalscorers: Gabriel Jesus 19′ 35′, Granit Xhaka 55, Gabriel Martinelli 75”; William Saliba OG 53′, James Maddison 74′

Arsenal celebrated back-to-back victories with a 4-2 win over Leicester in the Emirates to open the Premier League season.

Gabriel Jesus scored his first league goal for the Gunners with under 20 minutes played. The striker – surrounded by Leicester defenders – somehow found space in the box to circle his shot into the far corner. His second put them in a superior position at the break.

Leicester struck back early in the second half when Jamie Vardy’s pressure forced William Saliba to head the ball into his own goal, but the joy was short-lived as Granit Xhaka restored Arsenal’s two-goal lead just minutes later.

It was an afternoon of frustration for the Foxes, who again reduced the deficit, this time through James Maddison in the 74th minute, only to concede moments later.

The Infogol model put the probability of the game ending 4-2 at 1.9% based on expected goal counts, while Gabriel Jesus accounted for 52.1% of Arsenal’s total xG.

Aston Villa bounced back from their opening weekend’s disappointment with a 2-1 win over Everton in Saturday’s early kick-off.

Danny Ings’ well-fed goal gave Villa the lead after just over half an hour. Ollie Watkins had space up front thanks to John McGinn’s long ball and the cross caught Ings who turned and shot deep into the Everton net.

Diego Carlos’ close-range header went over the bar in the opening minutes – accounting for 71.4% of the hosts’ total xG tally in the first half.

Emi Buendia fired in a second in the final ten minutes of the game – a chance with a huge .80 xG – but Lucas Digne’s own goal gave the away side some hope soon after.

Buendia only had two shots in contention after coming off the bench, but he accounted for 39.5% of Villa’s total xG.

Brighton 0-0 Newcastle

Brighton were unlucky to draw 0-0 with Newcastle based on the chances created by both teams.

The home side had the better opportunity in a goalless first half, scoring 0.39 xG to Newcastle’s 0.10. Leandro Trossard was the top threat, accounting for 41.0% of the Seagulls’ xG before the break.

The hosts were the ones most keen to score but failed to convert the opportunities they created into attack.

The Infogol model puts a 16.0% chance of this game ending in a 0-0 draw given the two xG results posted by both sides, and comfortably scored the lowest fairness rating of the 3pm kickoffs .

It was an enjoyable afternoon for champions Manchester City as they secured a 4-0 win over recently promoted Bournemouth Members Extra readers with a winning nap by Mark O’Haire.

After impressing with two goals last weekend, Erling Haaland became the assist to score the opener with Ilkay Gundogan in the 19th minute.

De Bruyne doubled the lead with an outside shot into the far corner before Phil Foden made the three as half-time neared.

Based on their 1.19 xG at the break, there was only a 9.2% chance City had a three under their belt, while the 3-0 HT result was rated at 8.0%.

Jefferson Lerma’s own goal was the only goal of the second half. The Infogol model states that – based on City’s xG figure – there is a 6.1% chance Pep Guardiola’s side will score four goals if they recklessly take care of Bournemouth.

Southampton 2-2 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 1.54-1.95
• Fairness Rating: 91.28
• Goalscorers: Rodrigo 46′, 60′; Joe Aribo 72′, Kyle Walker-Peters 81′

Southampton came back from 0-2 to salvage a point in their home opener against Leeds.

Both sides had chances but Leeds will be concerned after Patrick Bamford left injured after less than 30 minutes – accounting for 35.7% of his first-half xG.

With less than 60 seconds into the second half, Rodrigo – who had been pushed further up at the break – converted a Jack Harrison cross to put the visitors ahead.

He scored one second past the hour and contributed 62.1% of Leeds’ total xG at the time. Joe Aribo pulled back a goal as Southampton pressed on in the final 20 minutes.

Kyle Walker-Peters then evened things out when he struck from close range (.32 xG), with a score that scored highly in the fairness ratings. However, there was only a 6.9% chance that the game would end 2-2.

Wolves 0-0 Fulham

Fulham failed to capitalize on a second-half penalty in their 0-0 draw against Wolves.

Daniel Podence had the biggest chance of the first half but failed to convert after 31 minutes on the clock, while Fulham looked to Aleksandar Mitrović who accounted for 76.6% of his xG before the break.

Morgan Gibbs-White had a great chance (0.46 xG) in the second half but failed to convert from a cross into the box. Mitrović then had the game’s best scoring opportunity in the 81st minute, but his penalty was saved by Wolves keeper Jose Sa.

Based on both teams’ xG totals, the Infogol model has an 8.5% chance of the game ending 0-0.