Trump’s latest court loss may not hurt primary bid, but some Republicans raise alarm about 2024 viability

(CNN) The initial reaction to Tuesday’s unprecedented ruling blaming a former president and current White House nominee for sexual abuse charges offered no reason to believe that Donald Trump’s position as the front runner for the GOP nomination is under imminent threat.

But some of his GOP critics have raised questions about his fitness for office, which will surely be the focus of the next general election when he is the Republican nominee.

“That and a few other things make me wonder if he would be the best candidate for the party,” North Dakota Senator, who has not yet confirmed, Kevin Cramer told CNN’s Manu Raju.

The unanimous ruling could deepen his vulnerability with key constituencies, including women – among whom the GOP must improve to win back the White House.

“I think he would go down. He wouldn’t win the White House. It would likely result in us losing the House and Senate,” GOP Rep. Don Bacon told CNN’s Melanie Zanona. “I would see very dark clouds on the horizon if he’s the nominee,” added Bacon, who is representing a Joe Biden-won Nebraska district president and has previously said he will not support Trump for the nomination.

The jury found that Trump sexually assaulted former columnist E. Jean Carroll in a New York department store in 1996 and that he was liable for assault and defamation while awarding her $5 million. The jury’s unanimous verdict provided vindication for Carroll and a symbolic victory for other women who have made assault allegations against the president. Trump, who denies any wrongdoing, immediately denounced the trial as a witch hunt and said he didn’t even know Carroll. He later said Tuesday night that he would appeal.

For most of modern U.S. history, and for most candidates, Tuesday’s developments would raise potentially insurmountable viability questions. Many White House hopefuls have left the presidential races for less. And Trump, who has pleaded not guilty in a separate criminal case into hush money payments to an adult film star in New York, is facing multiple legal threats. He is awaiting charges in separate investigations into his attempt to overthrow the 2020 election and his hoarding of classified documents. But the fact that Trump won’t leave the GOP race — and no one will get him to do so — shows his dominance of the Republican Party and how he’s redefined behavioral expectations for public life.

How the verdict will affect politics in the short term

No one can know how Tuesday’s ruling will affect voters in the GOP primary early next year or the outcome of a national election 18 months away. Because the trial was civil rather than criminal in nature, Trump will face no conviction or jail time. And several other dramas surrounding Trump if he is the nominee and Biden are likely to erupt and shape the campaign next year when that verdict will be but a memory.

Still, the immediate political repercussions of the Carroll case are already playing out in the Republican presidential campaign and among key GOP figures in Washington, and offer a glimpse of the state of the party and national politics as it stands now.

So far, there has been silence from most of Trump’s rivals or potential opponents in the GOP nomination contest. The lack of response underscores how the 2024 hopefuls struggle to define their profiles as alternatives to him while trying not to upset his followers. No statement has yet emerged from former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or potential White House contender Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. While some Republican voters have a clear sense of exhaustion over Trump’s endless scandals and personal political vulnerability, those who have expressed this frustration do not vote close to the former president, if they are running at all.

Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who earned 1% in a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll of Republicans and GOP-affiliated independents, came out with an unequivocal condemnation of Trump. He told CNN’s Erin Burnett that the jury system is sacrosanct, that the jury reached a verdict in this case that meant Trump was unfit to serve, and that Republicans should consider the electoral implications if a such candidate leads their ticket.

“I respect what a jury finds. By and large, they’re doing it right,” Hutchinson said, arguing that a president found guilty of sexual abuse would go against core US values. He said the United States is remarkable for its jury and justice systems. “Let’s not undermine it and disrespect it.”

But having defined much of his candidacy against Trump, Hutchinson is considered a longshot.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy characteristically dodged comment on the ruling after exiting the White House debt crisis talks on Tuesday. But the California Republican did Trump a service by pointing out that the ex-president – a powerful influence on his slim majority in the House of Representatives – had denied wrongdoing.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a staunch Trump supporter, reinforced the ex-president’s claims that he could not get a fair trial in Manhattan – a reference to the hush money case and Tuesday’s verdict. “I think the New York legal system has gone haywire when it comes to Donald Trump,” Graham said.

One of the most ardent opponents of Trump’s behavior, Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, did not hold back. He noted that “the jury of his peers ‘blamed Trump for sexual abuse’ and awarded the injured person $5 million.” The 2012 GOP presidential nominee added, “I hope the jury of American people will come to the same conclusion regarding Donald Trump.”

As scathing as it was, Romney’s disdain for Trump could have been predicted.

North Dakota’s Cramer – who pointed out in March that Trump’s indictment in the hush money case did not amount to a conviction – while expressing concern about Tuesday’s developments, he also nodded to the political factors that may protect Trump long ago. permanent damage.

“It’s very serious. But I think as a political issue, it’s less interesting to people outside of Washington DC than it is inside these walls or on Capitol Hill,” he said.

“I’d much rather have a president who doesn’t have that history, but at the same time there will be a binary election at some point and then we’ll get through it.”

Concerns about Trump’s influence on women and swing voters

This is far from the first time questions have been raised about Trump’s treatment of women — and how that might turn off some voters. It is now questionable whether it will be different this time.

When asked by CNN’s Jake Tapper whether the New York ruling should disqualify Trump as a GOP candidate, former Trump White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin said, “I think the answer is, it should.”

“This is one of the many firsts in history that Donald Trump has hit — a new low,” added Griffin, now a political commentator at CNN. She pointed out that after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape in 2016 — in which Trump boasted that stars could grab women’s genitals with impunity — many Republicans became concerned about his character. Well, she argued, those concerns have been backed up by a jury of his peers who have blamed Trump for sexual abuse. “We can’t afford to run this man as a Republican if we actually want to win because women will run away from voting for him.”

Senator Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who has criticized Trump in the past, said: “Of course that’s a concern. How could there not be a cause for concern?” But he added that it was up to voters to decide whether it should disqualify him.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said he doesn’t think the ruling will affect the Trump base, but it could affect some swing voters critical of a general election.

“I think there’s a cumulative effect, just the constant drama and chaos that always seems to surround him. But, you know, like I said, that doesn’t seem to affect his hardcore supporters,” the South Dakota Republican told reporters.

That’s partly because Trump and his conservative media cheerleaders have done such an effective job of delegitimizing in the eyes of his supporters every institution that holds him accountable, including the courts.

Trump’s connection to his constituents is emotional. His coalition applauds his refusal to abide by the rules of the supposed establishment elites, even the rule of law. His claims that he is a victim of Democrats who have armed the judicial system are a strong organizing principle of his campaign. So it’s hard to imagine the ex-president’s core supporters turning against him after so many turbulent years on this issue.

One of his staunchest supporters in Congress, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, spelled out a Trump-era truism when he told reporters Tuesday night he didn’t think the verdict “will make much of a difference.”