Aaron Judge home run pace: Tracking Yankees slugger’s MLB HR record chase compared to Roger Maris, Barry Bonds, others

Aaron Judge made a show of force for eternity in 2022.

The Yankees slugger established himself as one of the game’s best power hitters back in his rookie campaign in 2017, when he hit 52 homers, a rookie record at the time. Judge hit 200 homers in just 671 games during his career, becoming the second fastest player to reach that milestone.

Now he’s chasing even more historic milestones. Judge is chasing the 60 home run mark, a number only five players in MLB history have ever reached. And while the single-season home run record might be a tough number for him, he could be a run on the American League record set by Roger Maris in 1961 at 61.

How many home runs does Judge have and what’s his pace this season? Sports news takes a look.

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Aaron Judge Statistics 2022

So far, Judge has started 46 home runs in 118 games. The Yankees have 40 games left in the 2022 season.

Judge has had a couple of hot and cold months with the Force this season. He has just four home runs in 17 games in August and just six in 20 games in April. However, he hit 12 in May, 11 in June and 13 in July. A hot streak for Judge and his numbers could skyrocket.

The rest of Judge’s stat line is also impressive. He has a career-best OPS of 1.050 with a slash of .295/.393/.657. His 7.0 bWAR leads the majors.

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Aaron Judge home running pace

There are a few ways the pace for the judge’s home run total can be viewed. The first thing most would think of is his home runs per game pace. Based on that, Judge is on track to finish the season with 62 home runs if he plays in all of the Yankees’ 40 remaining games.

But there are other factors to consider like multi-homerun games, cold streaks, and other random elements that could come into play.

The Sporting News simulated the remainder of the Judge season – based on him playing in all 40 games – to see where his home run totals could end up. It looks like this:

The most likely exact score is 59 home runs at 11.1 percent and a 56.1 percent chance of hitting at least 59 home runs.

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For those wondering about the 60 homer plateau, Judge has a 45 percent chance of hitting at least 60 HRs and a 10.5 percent chance of hitting exactly 60. There’s a 34.5 percent chance of at least tying Maris 61 and a 25.3 percent chance of surpassing him.

What about the all-time mark of 73 home runs? That’s pretty unlikely at this point, given that there’s a 0.05 percent chance of tying Bond’s record and a 0.02 percent chance of breaking it at 74. The most home runs the model has ever seen was 75, a 0.01 percent chance. Needless to say, these are all incredible long shots.

Only eight players in Major League Baseball history have ever hit 60 home runs in a season. Two of them have done it multiple times (Mark McGwire twice, Sammy Sosa three times). Judge has maintained a better pace this season than several players who accomplished the feat, including Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa’s 1999 season.

Here’s a look at each player’s pace based on their team’s games played.

Most home runs in an MLB season

The year-long home run record has changed hands throughout baseball history, but not as often as one might think. Here’s a look at the timeline of all-time record holders.

George Hall

In 1876, the inaugural year of the National League, Philadelphia Athletics outfielder George Hall hit a whopping five home runs. While Lip Pike of the Baltimore Canaries had seven hits in 1872, that was back when baseball was governed by the National Association. In 1876, the National League took over and remains the senior circuit of Major League Baseball to this day.

Charlie Jones

In 1879, an American snatched the one-year record from the British Hall. Boston Red Stockings outfielder Charley Jones hit nine homers. He would hold the record for four years.

Harry Stovey

In the inaugural year of the American Association, 1883, Harry Stovey of the Philadelphia Athletics hit 14 home runs, the first time a player had double-digit home run totals. He would eclipse by double digits six times in his career, with a career best of 19 in 1888. However, his single-season home run record only stood for one season, and he never reclaimed the title.

Ed Williamson

Talk about a breakaway season. Edward “Ned” Williamson hit a total of eight home runs in the first six seasons of his National League career. But in 1884, the White Stockings’ third baseman went ballistic, batting for 27 home runs. It was a long time before anyone caught him. It wasn’t until 35 years later that a two-way phenomenon named George came along and broke the record.

Babe Ruth

George Herman “Babe” Ruth was a standout pitcher for the first five seasons of his Red Sox career, but his batting skills in 1918 with a roster depleted from World War I gave the team reason to believe he could do more should spend time to beat. While still pitching in 1919, he also hit 29 homers, breaking Williamson’s record. It would be the last year Ruth would be a full-time pitcher.

In 1920, his freshman year with the Yankees, Ruth hit 54 home runs. The year after, he hit 59 home runs. Then, in 1927, the 32-year-old outfielder smashed 60 home runs. While he remained an amazing power hitter for the rest of his career, hitting 298 home runs from age 33–40, he never reached 60 again. That record held for 34 years, giving Ruth a total of 42 years as a record-season-holder , until another Bronx bomber took the record away.

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Roger Maris

Roger Maris came off an MVP season in 1960 when he hit 39 homers and hit .283/.371/.581. It was his first year with the Yankees on a team led by star outfielder Mickey Mantle. In 1961, Maris and Mantle had staggering performance numbers, with Mantle posting a career-best 54 home runs. But it was Maris who broke Ruth’s record at 61 and won his second straight MVP.

Maris hit just 117 home runs in the last seven seasons of his career, but his record of 61 home runs lasted for 37 years, the second longest of any record holder.

Mark McGwire

The 1998 MLB season will likely long be remembered as one that helped save baseball. After a 1994 strike dampened national enthusiasm for the sport, McGwire and Sosa brought energy back. On September 8, McGwire hit his 62nd home run of the season, passing Maris.

Sammy Sosa

Not to be outdone, Sosa caught up and passed McGwire on September 25 to briefly hold the record at 66 when he hit Jose Lima with a tape measure.

Mark McGwire

On the same day that Sosa took the lead over McGwire, the Cardinals’ first baseman also hit his 66th home run to tie Sosa and stay in the fight. In the final two days of the season, McGwire hit four home runs to regain the lead and set the record at 70. He held that record for three years. McGwire has since admitted to using steroids during the 1998 season. Although Sosa has often been linked to the steroid scandals, he has never admitted to taking performance-enhancing drugs.

Barry Bonds

On his way to setting the all-time home run record, Bonds claimed a single-season home run record. In 2001, his ninth season with the Giants, Bonds hit 73 home runs, officially surpassing McGwire on October 5. This season earned him his first of four straight MVP awards. Bonds has never admitted to steroid use, but he was charged with perjury and obstruction of justice in 2007 for believing he lied under oath about steroid use during the BALCO hearings.