AFL Round 12 Betting Tips: Melbourne to dominate Carlton, Jeremy Cameron to get off the leash
The first AFL bye is here, we have seven games to go and four teams have a chance.
The stakes are high on Friday night as the injured Carlton must win a game he must win against Melbourne at the MCG.
Port Adelaide are targeting nine straight wins against the in-form Hawthorn, while the Eagles will be keen to limit the damage against leaders Collingwood.
After losing three games in a row, Geelong travels to Marvel Stadium for a blockbuster action against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night.
Gold Coast and Adelaide will be hoping to secure their wins over top-eight opponents and GWS hosts Richmond.
To wrap up the round, Essendon meets an improving North Melbourne at Marvel.
The sports news gives you the best betting tips for round 12.
Quotations courtesy of Bluebet.
We scored last week three our nine predictions.
In a surprise round, several players performed worse than expected, including Errol Gulden, Jeremy Cameron and Tom Liberatore.
MORE: AFL team lists Round 12: Chopping block – Carlton injury crisis, Collingwood loses stars
Melbourne (4th) vs. Carlton (13th) best bet
Melbourne will be favorites despite losses to Fremantle and Port Adelaide, with Simon Goodwin’s side keen to get the season back on track.
The injury-plagued Blues, who have won just one of their last seven games, have had to make at least five changes due to fitness issues.
With Carlton having a revolving door to choose from due to injury and form issues, and the quality of the player lacking in Friday night’s game, it’s safe to assume the Demons will do the job fairly easily.
The cap is 18.5 and it’s likely the Demons will pull that off against a struggling Blues team.
Melbourne – 18.5 point line – $1.90
Port Adelaide (2nd) vs. Hawthorn (16th) best bet
Port Adelaide are aiming for their ninth straight win as they take on a rapidly improving Hawthorn at the Adelaide Oval.
The Powers have re-emerged as a Premier League leader under Ken Hinkley and will be heavily favored against the Hawks.
Hawthorn has made positive progress in 2023 – capped by an inspirational win over St Kilda last week.
Zak Butters has been arguably the best player in the competition in recent weeks and we can expect the Hawks to invest time in him.
Because of this, Connor Rozee is a huge opportunity to come off the leash – especially at home when a win is at stake.
He’s also had more than 25 possessions in his last four games.
Connor Rozee 25+ exits – $1.55
West Coast (18th) vs. Collingwood (1st) best bet
This will be a duel between first and last, the outcome of which is likely to be what we expected.
West Coast is struggling to put a full team on the park, let alone compete against the competition.
Collingwood just keeps winning games, with Brisbane being the only team to claim victory this season.
If Essendon can beat the Eagles by 50 points at Optus, Collingwood can comfortably cover the 57.5 point mark.
Collingwood -57.5 point line – $1.90
Western Bulldogs (6th) vs. Geelong (10th) best bet
The reigning premier Geelong is in a tough spot in 2023, having lost their last three games to GWS, Fremantle and Richmond.
While the Bulldogs won five straight games in Darwin last weekend, they lost to Gold Coast.
Jeremy Cameron has shot 3.7 for the last three weeks and certainly won’t put in another poor performance on the dry track at Marvel Stadium.
He still had five shots on goal last week but shot inaccurately at 2.3.
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals – $1.95
Gold Coast (12th) vs. Adelaide (7th) best bet
Both teams have great victories, with the Suns beating the Bulldogs in Darwin while the Crows beat Brisbane in Adelaide.
The Suns can qualify for the finals with a win, and the Crows can prove their qualification for the finals if they get the chocolate.
Izak Rankine will return to Metricon Stadium in top form and expects to be well prepared against his former club.
The small forward should at least be good for a few goals.
Izak Rankine 2+ Goals – $1.75
GWS (14th) vs. Richmond (15th) best bet
In whatever form, the Giants will take on the Tigers on their home field.
GWS picked up a surprise win against Geelong in the cattery and nobody expects them to win there.
The Tigers beat Geelong three weeks ago but have since lost to Essendon and Port Adelaide.
Toby Greene is averaging 2.9 goals per game this season and in a game where they are favored to win we would like the Skipper to score 3+.
Toby Greene 3+ Goals – $1.80
Essendon (8th) vs. North Melbourne (17th) best bet
North Melbourne have improved in recent weeks with an unfortunate loss to Sydney and a heavy loss to Collingwood.
However, they will still be the strong underdogs at Marvel Stadium on Sunday against Essendon.
With the Roos’ improved form and better performances at Marvel, they have a good chance of imposing their lineage.
The Bombers are a decent team, but 30.5 is a decent lead.
North Melbourne +30.5 point line – $1.90