ATP Tour best bets for Rio de Janeiro, Doha and Marseille

Recommended bets: ATP Tour Tennis

1pt ew Roberto Bautista Agut at the Qatar Exxonmobil Open at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5 points ew Jiri Lehecka at the Qatar Exxonmobil Open at 20/1 (BetVictor)

1pt ew Maxime Cressy in Open 13 at 25/1 (BetVictor)

0.5 points ew Marc-Andrea Huesler in Open 13 at 50/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

Rio open

• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (outdoor sand)

Will appear here…

Qatar Exxonmobil Open

• Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)

A two-week stint in the Middle East begins this week for the ATP Tour.

Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime are the two top-10 players in the field in Qatar, but newly crowned Rotterdam champion Daniil Medvedev is the favourite.

It’s totally understandable after his impressive performance in the Netherlands, although conditions will change significantly this week as this is an outdoor venue.

The Plexicushion courts can play fairly quickly in the heat, but the ball’s pace tends to slow down in the night sessions when the temperature often drops significantly.

That could be awkward for the many players arriving from Rotterdam, where Rublev lost to Alex de Minaur in the opening round and Auger-Aliassime was beaten by Medvedev in the last eight.

Rublev is a former champion here (in 2020 when the tournament was held at its original venue in January) and also won the title in nearby Dubai last season.

That’s a record that shows he can adapt quickly to conditions, but at 11/2 I don’t see much value in his price.

I’m more interested in another man with a good record in the Middle East and this is ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT.

The Spaniard is the defending champion this week and also won here in 2019. In addition, he was the defeated finalist in 2021 and is a former champion at the aforementioned Dubai tournament.

He likes courts with some pace but not too fast for his baseline-dominated game. He does that here.

RBA has already been to an outdoor ATP Finals this season (in Adelaide) while following up that effort with a run to the last 16 of the Australian Open.

Last week in Rotterdam he lost first to Hubert Hurkacz, although the competition was decided by a tie-break in the final set, showing he wasn’t far behind and played well enough.

The early loss will have given him time to settle into a place he clearly loves and he appears set to return on 18/1. to be of interest.

Critics will point out that he’s in Medvedev’s quarters, but it’s interesting to note that the RBA is leading their neck-and-neck race 4-2, with the tough outsider record at 3-0.

I think Bautista Agut’s chances this week are very positive and I’ll be happy to support him for the prize.

The top half appears to have potential for punters if you’re willing to take on Rublev.

And after losing to De Minaur last week, so am I.

The other seeds in the section aren’t exactly scary.

Alex Zverev is obviously still groping his way back after six months and has looked way off his best in recent weeks.

For someone who spends a lot of free time in Dubai, Dan Evans has a disappointing record in the Middle East, while Botic van de Zandschulp has not beaten anyone higher than 62nd place so far this year.

The one I will therefore give a chance to is Jiri Lehecka on 20.1.

The 21-year-old enjoyed an excellent Australian Open, reaching the quarter-finals after victories over Borna Coric, Cam Norrie and Auger-Aliassime.

He backed that up with two Davis Cup victories to help the Czech Republic qualify for September’s final.

Throw in his run to the Next Gen ATP Finals in late 2022 and he has now won 12 of his last 16 games.

His decent serve should benefit the day conditions here, while in the evening sessions he has the power to hurt opponents from the back of the court.

Let’s try a small each-way punt.

open 13

• Marseille, France (hard hall)

Hubert Hurkacz and Jannik Sinner are the top two seeds in Marseille this week and it’s not hard to campaign to support either of them.

Hurkacz was our man in Rotterdam last week, where he played four tie-breaks and defeated Roberto Bautista Agut before losing to Grigor Dimitrov. He knocked down 45 aces in those two games and could be hard to stop this week if he serves like that.

Marseille has tended to be one of the fastest events on the tour, although Gerflor’s recent surface switch to Slamcourt seems to have slowed things down a bit.

I can see Hurkacz is doing well but do I want to support him at 6/1? The answer is no.

Ante-post Jolly Sinner is significantly shorter – and again I’m happy to dodge.

The Italian arrives here after a disappointing loss to Daniil Medvedev in the Rotterdam final, a match he led by a set only to win just four more games.

It could be faster than ideal for him this week and even with a first round bye, 7/4 looks like a very short prize.

Grigor Dimitrov and Alex de Minaur are others in single digits after decent performances in the Netherlands last week but I’m drawn to the higher odds and will take one in each half.

In the lower section MAXIM CRESSY has the serve to make the most of good conditions for his game.

Two weeks ago in Montpellier he made it to the final, beating both Borna Coric and Top 10 star Holger Rune along the way.

This was his fourth ATP final in less than 14 months and each time he managed to get rolling with a serve that can net a lot of cheap points.

A repeat looks more than possible in Marseille, where he ended up in the De Minaur neighborhood.

The Australian won last week’s Rotterdam meeting in a decisive set, but Cressy could retaliate on a faster place.

Up in the top half, I’m pretty sure of that MARC ANDREA HÜSLER shouldn’t be a 50/1 shot.

The eighth seed won indoors in Sofia last fall and is another player with a big first serve that can do real damage.

OK he hasn’t had the best start to the year but it has been far from a disaster and he comes here with a track record including a couple of notable Davis Cup victories for Switzerland.

Huesler now sits at a career high ranking and for the price seems undervalued and worth a few beans.

Posted at 2020 GMT on 2/19/23

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