Auburn vs. Iowa odds, prediction, betting trends for 2023 March Madness first round matchup
To open the Thursday night prime-time roster, No. 9 Auburn will take on No. 8, Iowa, in the first round of the 2023 men’s basketball tournament. The game will kick off at 6:50 p.m. ET from the Legacy Arena at the BJCC in Birmingham, Alabama (TNT).
The Tigers (20-12) took a step back this season after their incredible 2021-22 season in which they went 28-6 against Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler but lost to Duke in the second round of the NCAA tournament . Auburn did not have a long run at that year’s SEC tournament, losing to Arkansas by three points in the quarterfinals. The Tigers haven’t played their best basketball all the way through, losing seven of their last 11 games. However, Bruce Pearl’s side have played well in non-conference play earlier this season with a 10-2 record.
The Hawkeyes (19-13) no longer have the services of Keegan Murray, but his twin brother Kris has been phenomenal this season, averaging 20.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. Iowa lost in the first round to 12th-ranked Richmond last year, a fate they hope to avoid this time. Iowa didn’t have a tough schedule outside of the conference, but they won against Virginia in November but also lost to Iowa State by 20 points in December. The Hawkeyes played well in the Big Ten that season, finishing seventh in one of the top conferences in college hoop. However, it doesn’t matter if Iowa doesn’t start having some NCAA tournament success.
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Auburn vs Iowa Odds
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
To no one’s surprise, Auburn is just a point favorite in Thursday’s game against Iowa. The total score is set at 152.5 points, likely helped by the fact that Iowa ranks 22nd nationally (80.2 points per game).
- spread: Maroon -1
- About Below: 152.5
- money line: Maroon -119, Iowa -101
Three betting trends to keep an eye on
– The Tigers are 12-13 against the spread as favorites this season but 20-5 right on the money line.
— The Hawkeyes are 3-5 ATS as underdogs and 0-4 ATS at a neutral this season.
— Auburn is 7-4 ATS after losing this season, while Iowa is 7-5 ATS after losing.
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETS:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | props | Round 1 Best Bets
Key figures of Auburn
For the Tigers to advance to the Round of 32 this weekend, they need a tremendous performance from second-year forward Johni Broome. Broome is one of four Auburn players to score in double digits, averaging 14 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. The 6-10 forward is also a force on defense, averaging 2.3 blocks per game (third in the SEC and 12th in the country). Along with Broome, the Hawkeyes have Wendell Green Jr., Jaylin Williams and Allen Flanigan to deal with. Green Jr. was named to the All-SEC second team with Broome after 13.8 points, 4.2 assists and 3.3 rebounds this season. Although short in stature (5-11), Green is a tough guard who tries to play for others.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Key figures from Iowa
The Hawkeyes will rely on Kris Murray, who plays at the same level as Keegan for Iowa last season. Murray is averaging 20.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game en route to being named to the All-Big-Ten First Team. Murray isn’t doing everything himself, however, as the Hawkeyes have contributions from Filip Rebraca, Tony Perkins, Patrick McCaffrey, and Payton Sandfort. Rebraca, Perkins and McCaffrey earned honorable mentions from the Big Ten while Sandfort won sixth man of the year. Sandfort averages 10.2 points and 4.2 rebounds in 20.6 minutes per game. He also shoots 34.6 percent from three-point range and has at least 10 points in 10 games.
HISTORY OF ORIGINS THROUGH SEEDS:
15 against 2 | 14 against 3 | 13 against 4 | 12 against 5
Best Individual Matchup: Johni Broome vs. Kris Murray
These two forwards may not meet often on Thursday night, but they will play a huge part in their respective teams’ success. Broome played well in his freshman season with the Tigers after spending his freshman two years of college at Morehead State. He can influence the game with his defense and play with his back to the basketball on offense. As for Murray, he can score in heaps and produce 15 games of 20 or more points. He has the athleticism to run across the ground, post inside the arc, and parry shots from around the perimeter.
Auburn vs. Iowa stats to get to know
Iowa goes into the first round Thursday night with one of the best offenses in the country (80.2 points per game). It also does a great job of distributing the ball, resulting in 16.6 assists per game (24th in the NCAA). Finally, the Hawkeyes are a better team at the free-throw line (73.9 percent) compared to Auburn (70.2 percent), who could play a role late in the second half. However, the Tigers have the better scoring defense (67.1 points per game) they need to slow down Murray and Co.
EXPERT PACKAGES:
DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
Prediction of Auburn vs. Iowa
We don’t expect either side to be sent off as Thursday’s second-half game will come down to the final five minutes. Auburn knows how to play in tight games, but it wasn’t able to pull off the win. Meanwhile, Iowa is a good team in the regular season but can’t pull itself together in the NCAA tournament. However, we want the Hawkeyes to win as they are more balanced offensively and have a dynamic goalscorer in Murray.
Forecast: Iowa 80, Auburn 77. Iowa (+1) covers the spread on the fly ABOVE the sum (152.5)
See what BetQL is projecting for Iowa vs. Auburn, along with sharp picks, value bets and more for each March Madness game!