Biden set for latest symbolic clash with Putin after surprise Ukraine trip
Warsaw, Poland(CNN) The last time President Joe Biden spoke from the courtyard of the Royal Castle in Poland, most of the content of his 27-minute speech was obscured by what he ended up saying at will about Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“For God’s sake,” he proclaimed, “this man cannot remain in power.”
Nearly a year later, Biden returns to the royal palace this week to mark the anniversary of a war that has increasingly brought him directly into conflict with the Russian leader, a Cold War dynamic exacerbated by Biden’s top-secret visit to Kiev a day earlier was underlined.
Alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Biden used his mere presence in the Ukrainian capital to mock Putin for failing in his ambitions to invade and control the country.
“Putin’s war of conquest is failing,” Biden said, adding later, “He thought he could outlive us. I don’t think he’s thinking that right now.”
If there was ever a point at which Biden and his aides hoped to avoid personalizing the Ukraine conflict, it was over well before this week’s anniversary. Biden has declared Putin a “war criminal” and a “pure thug”, accused Russia of genocide and implicitly called for regime change in his palace speech.
Still, this week’s carefully planned choreography stands out, openly pitting Biden against his Kremlin counterpart. On Tuesday, both will again engage in a rhetorical contest and deliver important speeches to celebrate a year after the start of the Russian invasion.
From Warsaw Castle, Biden intends to recommit to supporting Ukraine, even as costs mount and public support appears to be waning. And in Moscow, Putin delivered a key speech to the Federal Assembly, in which he again falsely claimed that Ukraine and its western allies had started the war and gave no sign that he would withdraw his ambitions.
Speaking to reporters ahead of Biden’s speech, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described the Warsaw speech as an “affirmative statement of values” that would place the Ukraine conflict in a larger context. He said it was not intended as a direct refutation of Putin.
“We didn’t set the speech up for some kind of head-to-head race,” Sullivan said. “This is not a rhetorical competition with others.”
Sullivan said Biden’s speech was larger than a single response to his counterpart’s address in Moscow.
“The President’s remarks today relate to … something bigger. And we picked that time, we picked that date, not because President Putin spoke today,” he said.
According to senior US and European officials, Putin’s goals have not changed since he began his invasion a year ago. Despite humiliating setbacks for its military and an apparent power struggle between the Wagner mercenary group and the Russian Defense Ministry, Russia has recently made gains in the east. Putin’s forces appear poised to take the city of Bakhmut in the first significant Russian military victory in months.
In contrast to Biden’s last appearance in Warsaw, when Putin’s forces appeared on the retreat and observers expected Russia’s economy to collapse under the weight of Western sanctions, the war now appears poised to drag on for at least another year. There are currently no serious efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting.
During his visit to the region this week, Biden hopes to once again sound a rallying cry for Ukraine and demonstrate to Putin and Russia that the West’s resolve is not faltering. At meetings with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and other Eastern European allies, he will reaffirm his commitment to these countries’ security.
Biden announced Monday he would join European nations to announce new sanctions against Moscow and unveil another security aid package on top of the tens of billions already pledged this year.
The White House said ahead of his trip that Biden would speak by phone with other Western leaders later in the week, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom and President Emmanuel Macron of France.
“Freedom is priceless. It’s worth fighting for while it lasts. And that’s how long we will be with you, Mr. President – as long as it takes,” Biden told Zelenskyy in Kiev on Monday.
The upcoming fight
But Biden — nor any other Western leader — has been unable to say exactly how long that will take, so this week refers to the year ahead as much as it does to the past 12 months.
The war has left an indelible mark on almost every aspect of Biden’s presidency, and it has shaped the war, from the billions of dollars in arms shipments to the reinvigorated Western alliance. It has caused shocks in the global economy and domestic political troubles, while still offering Biden an opportunity to demonstrate his oft-recited claim that “America is back.”
White House officials have been looking at this week’s anniversary for weeks, consistently pointing out that a year ago, when Russian troops were massing on the border with Ukraine, there were many people — including within the Biden administration — who supported Kiev predicted would fall in a few days.
The surprising resilience of the Ukrainian people together with the unexpected ineptitude of the Russian armed forces prevented a full takeover. Instead, the war has become what NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg described last week as a “grueling war of attrition” with no apparent end.
“I think it’s wise to prepare for a long war,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who will visit Biden at the White House early next month, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Friday.
The United States and other Western nations have been shipping batches of arms, tanks and ammunition to Ukraine and steadily increasing their readiness in hopes of changing the tide of the war. Selenskyj is not enough, he wants heavier weapons and fighter jets.
US officials have said they hope the massive influx of weapons into Ukraine – which include new vehicles, long-range missiles and Patriot air defense systems – can help Ukraine assert itself on the battlefield and put the country in a stronger negotiating position end of the war.
But it remains unclear what parameters Zelenskyy might be willing to accept in peace talks, and the US has steadfastly refused to define what an agreement might look like, other than that it will be up to Zelenskyy to decide.
Concerns about the future of the war
Meanwhile, fresh concerns over available stockpiles of ammunition and weapons have surfaced over the past week, a clear indication that the West cannot indefinitely provide unlimited support – either logistically or politically – according to polls showing support for the flagging war effort.
In the US, some conservative Republicans have refused to provide any further aid to Ukraine, although party leaders appear to have shown unwavering support. As Biden prepares to announce his re-election intentions, fears are growing in Europe that a change in the White House could herald a shift in policy towards Ukraine.
“I have to say that there are concerns in both Poland and Ukraine about US staying power beyond this administration. This war would be very different without US support,” said Michal Baranowski, the managing director in Warsaw of the German Marshall Fund.
“The fact is we’re fighting the clock, right?” said Baranowski. “I mean, it’s really about whether time is on the side of Russia, which is losing but has a lot of resources to exhaust us in the West. That makes me think. I hope we have the staying power.”
White House officials said that in Biden’s upcoming Warsaw Castle speech to mark the anniversary of the war, the president plans to address the cost the war has inflicted on the rest of the world. He and his associates have tried to downplay the prospect that Republicans may sharply reduce American aid to Ukraine, noting that GOP leaders are broadly united in their support.
As an indication of the enormous number of refugees Poland has taken in since the beginning of the war, his remarks will be translated into both Polish and Ukrainian.
John Kirby, coordinator of strategic communications at the National Security Council, said the president’s message was for “people around the world.”
But almost a year after calling for his downfall at the same spot, Biden also plans to deliver a message to the man in the Kremlin.
“You will hear him send a message to Mr. Putin and the Russian people,” Kirby said.