Bills at Rams: Time, channel, how to watch, pick, key matchups for Week 1 ‘Thursday Night Football’ showdown

The 2022 NFL season is finally here. There will be a total of 272 games played this season before we reach the playoffs, and in the first of those games, the defending champion Los Angeles Rams will begin their Super Bowl title defense by welcoming one of this season’s favorites — the Buffalo Bills — on Thursday night to the SoFi Stadium.

In what projects will be an exciting debut competition, we will see stars all over the field. From Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey to Von Miller and Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the griddle will be crowded with some of the league’s best players. There is hardly a better way to open this campaign.

Before we break down the matchup, here’s how to watch Thursday night’s game.

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Date: Thursday 8 Sept | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: ABC | Electricity: fuboTV (click here)
Consequences: CBS Sports App
Opportunities: Bills -2.5, O/U 52

When the Bills have the ball

Before we dive into the various stars that matchups revolve around on this side of the ball, it’s important to talk about structure.

According to Tru Media, no defense in the league last season played more early-down snaps (first and second) than the Rams with six or fewer defenders in the box. On Buffalo’s offense, meanwhile, opponents played light boxes on early downs more often than all but two other NFL teams. So the Bills are used to seeing that defensive stance — and finding success against it, ending the season eighth in the EPA per game on those snaps.

Beginning under Brandon Staley and now Raheem Morris, Los Angeles primarily wants to take away the deep pass, and structuring the defense like this allows them to do that while — at least in the last two seasons — they don’t give up too much in the running game . Without players like Sebastian Joseph-Day up front, it will be interesting to see if Morris can still play things the same way or if he has to switch to more traditional four-man defenses and maybe even drop a safety in the box more often than he does is dear. Either way, the Rams would certainly prefer the Bills to put the ball in the hands of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss or James Cook than Josh Allen.

However, the Bills have an interesting counterattack up their sleeve – essentially using Allen as a running back. We saw them do this in their preseason game against the Chiefs last season when Allen had 11 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown and played a big part in the Bills on their opening drive going right that Marching down the field to score a touchdown the game. Allen had 31 drafted runs against six or fewer men in the box last season, the most of any quarterback. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry on those games, an elite mark by any measure.

The Bills also used stronger staff groupings in the second half of the season to get better running game numbers and also open game action against linebackers. It turned out to be quite successful, and we got to see more of that against the Rams. In the second half of the season, Allen also showed more willing to check the ball for secondary targets and let them play after the catch. Buffalo specifically targeted pass catching this offseason to support that style of play. First he freehandedly pursued JD McKissic, then signed Duke Johnson and drafted James Cook. If Cook (or Johnson, if active) can get the first man to miss a swing pass or checkdown (a difficult feat against Bobby Wagner’s and Ernest Jones’ lines), that could prove very useful.

Buffalo’s other counter to the “take away deep shots” style defense was to simply throw the ball all over them. Allen was 13 of 31 for 534 yards and two touchdowns on throws for at least 30 air yards during the regular season, and we saw against both the Patriots and Chiefs that he has both the arm strength and the confidence to take the Throwing the ball as far as he can and trusting his receivers to handle it.

It’s also worth watching as the Rams opt to play against Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Dawson Knox at the back end. Morris used Jalen Ramsey more often than Staley, but Diggs doesn’t show up there that often; He only did this on 21 percent of his routes last season. McKenzie seems likely to open the season as the primary slot man. Is it worth that much to get Ramsey closer to the ball and the line of scrimmage when he spends most of his time covering Buffalo’s most sneaky wideout but is still the third or fourth option in the passing game? And can Morris trust Troy Hill and David Long to hold their own against Diggs and Davis on the fringes? Morris didn’t use Ramsey to shadow receivers last season, but it might be worth considering in this matchup.

Of course, Allen needs to have enough time to actually throw the ball to those wideouts, and that might be harder than you think. Aaron Donald is capable of single-handedly destroying any game plan, and the games that Buffalo struggled offensively last season were ones in which the offensive line was simply overwhelmed by opposing defensive lines. How well the inside of that line can hold up against the best player in the game is perhaps the most important factor in Buffalo’s offensive success.

When the Rams have the ball

The key thing to watch here is how the Bills defensive backfield is handling the Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp connection and whether the Rams’ other receivers can capitalize on the attention given to the league’s most prolific receiver from last season must become.

Buffalo will be without star cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is still recovering from a cruciate ligament rupture he sustained last season. That puts two rookies – first-rounder Kaiir Elam and sixth-rounder Christian Benford – in line for long-term play alongside Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson. Will the Bills be able to play as much man coverage as they normally want (according to Tru Media, only three teams played at a higher rate of man in early downs last season) without their star corner? Considering that Kupp had 24 receptions against zone coverage last season than any other player in the league, it might be wise to not just let him find between defenders.

What Stafford really brought out for the Rams last season was their ability to connect on the field during big games. A year after Jared Goff fielded just 13 of 49 at throws for at least 20 yards, Stafford completed 31 of 73 such attempts and had the fifth-best EPA per game in the league with those dropbacks. However, the Bills were better than any other team in the NFL at restricting big plays in the passing game. Buffalo allowed just 10 completions from 20 or more air yards all of last season, limiting opponents to a hilarious 10-of-45 for 283 yards, zero touchdowns and seven interceptions on those passes. With Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer still patrolling the deep part of the field, the Rams may need to attack the short and middle ranges more frequently. and when the Bills need to play more zone due to their lack of cornering experience, those areas of the field are open to them.

Kupp aside, it will be interesting to see how the Rams field Allen Robinson, their new No. 2 wide receiver. He’s a very different player to Robert Woods or Odell Beckham Jr., the last two players to fill that role. Robinson is 6-2, 220 and is much more of a perimeter ball-winner type than either of those players, and that could prove difficult for Buffalo’s defensive backs when he and Stafford have instant chemistry on back-shoulder-type throws can develop. (Stafford’s elbow injury is also worth seeing here. Can he fire the ball out with his trademark elite arm strength?)

The biggest problem for Los Angeles on offense is offense. This is an offensive line that was overwhelmed at times last season and both no longer have Andrew Whitworth in the left tackle and lost would-be starting supervisor Logan Bruss to a preseason injury. Buffalo has both firepower and depth down the defensive line, as Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier can take out anyone from Miller, Gregory Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Shaq Lawson, Boogie Basham, Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle to the Test Rams in many ways.

Not having to resort to blitz is key against the Rams, as Stafford hilariously punished defense when they trailed six or more rushers last year, averaging 1.01 EPA per dropback — the best in in the league by a mile and so much better than the league average of just .15 per dropback that it’s hardly worth comparing. Buffalo blitzed about league average a year ago but may be tempted to do so more frequently early this season due to White’s absence, hoping the young corners will spend a little less time reporting on average snaps.

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams +2.5

Finally, how the Rams split snaps and touches between Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson is worth watching. The team had planned to use Akers as a Todd Gurley-style workhorse before he tore his Achilles tendon before last season. When he miraculously recovered quickly from injury, they shifted a heap of work onto his plate despite his relative ineffectiveness. Sean McVay has spoken of the pair of defenders as more of a committee coming into this season. Who he trusts and if he’s willing to ride the hot hand instead of just going with the guy they had higher hopes for will be interesting to see. Buffalo finished last season just outside the top 10 in run defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA and were most vulnerable to runs on the rim – right past the Bills’ aggressive pass rushers. If the Rams manage to attack this area on the fly, it could lead to game action and on-field bootlegging against a defense that doesn’t normally allow these to be completed.

Prognosis: Bills 33, Rams 30