Bustin’ Out, NL Central: Reds’ Hunter Greene ready to challenge for Cy Young votes

One of the best parts of any baseball season is watching the players exceed expectations. These are the guys who, for whatever reason – injuries, youth, lack of opportunities – haven’t been able to fulfill their potential.

Until they do.

Think back to last year. Who would have thought that Andrés Giménez would come sixth in the AL MVP voting? And who knew Spencer Strider would deliver one of the best strikeout seasons ever from a right-handed pitcher? Who knew Nestor Cortes would become one of the most reliable starters of the greats? You probably don’t. But here’s a bet that Andrés, Spencer, and Nestor knew what they were capable of.

MORE: Who will drop out in NL East? | At least?

So we’re going to focus on the majors, looking for one player from each team capable of, as they say, becoming a star — or a bigger star — in 2023.

Today: The National League Central

Red: Hunter Greene

I strongly believe that Greene is a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2023. Yes, he experienced some bumps in the road in 2022 resulting in a so-so 4.44 ERA and 4.37 FIP, but he’s the real deal. He’s got one of the best arms in baseball and the brain, motivation and work ethic to match. He had eight starts last year in which he went at least six full innings and conceded one or no deserved run. His numbers in those eight starts: 50 1/3 innings, 19 hits, 3 earned runs, 1 home run, 15 walks, 69 strikeouts

That’s legitimate. He missed most of August and half of September with a shoulder strain but came back to finish the season with four starts and was brilliant: .78 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 23 innings. And that was his season at the age of 22.

I’m telling you this is the year he establishes himself as an elite NL starter.

Boys: Christopher Morel

One thing about Morel is certain: he has the personality to be a star. He’s as personable as he is on the baseball field, and he has the talent to match. Cubs fans fell in love with him when he went straight from Double-A Tennessee to the Bigs in mid-May thanks to some memorable hits and the spark he started instantly. And he finished the year with 16 homers, 10 stolen bases and 47 RBIs in 113 games.

Not bad. But last year, his season at the age of 23, showed that Morel was still developing as a player. He got off to a strong start — .850 OPS, 13 doubles, nine homers, nine stolen bases and four three-pointers in his first 58 games — and an ending that wasn’t great when the league adjusted for him. In his last 55 games, Morel had a .578 OPS, with six doubles, seven homers, no triples and one stolen base. With an offseason full of adjustments, Morel is poised to make an impact on the 2023 Cubs. He has a chance to earn regular ABs at third base, but his versatility might best suit the team’s needs. Morel started 50 games at center field, 28 at second base, 16 at third base, 10 at shortstop, and even one in left field.

It’s that kind of versatility that will prove valuable. Morel’s hard hit and barrel rates have been stellar over the past year, and with a little big league experience and the knowledge he’s learned from 2022, his 2023 could be special.

Cardinals: Nolan Gorman

Like Morel, Gorman had plenty of big moments as a rookie in 2022 — hitting 14 home runs in 89 games — but like Morel, his end of the season wasn’t great as he struggled with pitcher adjustments at the major league level. But the talent and power are there to be an impact hitter in the Cardinals’ lineup. In addition to those 14 homers in the big league, Gorman hit 16 in 43 games at Triple-A, giving him 30 in 132 games overall. This will play.

The biggest weakness was the high fastball. That’s a pitch that can be caught up in the minors, but it’s different in the majors. So he’s been working on it all offseason, and that work will continue this spring. Manager Oli Marmol now described his swing as “flatter” which helps at the top of the zone. It’s another adjustment on a long list of adjustments Gorman had to make in order to be at the top and stay there. The most important adjustment was the defensive position change. Another Nolan locked out third base in St. Louis, so Gorman has been learning to play second over the past year or two. It’s still a work in progress, but expect improvements there this year. And he needs to get better because the shift ban puts even more value on this position.

Pirates: Oneil Cruz

While some teams are short of candidates, the Pirates have plenty, including Roansy Contreras and Rodolfo Castro. And Ke’Bryan Hayes, a 26-year veteran on that roster, is still not fulfilling his potential on the plate despite posting a 4.3 bWAR last season. But the nod here goes to Cruz, the athlete with skills that are eye-catching and mind-blowing. In 87 games in the Bigs last year, Cruz had 17 homers, 54 RBIs and 10 stolen bases, and those numbers should all increase with a full season. And you have to consider that at 6-7 and his speed, the larger bases could help him get more extra steals than a smaller base runner. He’ll probably never be a .380 percentage guy on base, but if he can take that into the .330 range with better pitch selection and more contact, he’s a potential 30-30 guy this year. Don’t be surprised if it happens.

Brewer: Garrett Mitchell

In 28 games with the Brewers last year, Mitchell stole eight bases. In his first spring practice game that year, he hit two homers against the Dodgers. So yes, the talent is there. Mitchell, the 20th overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft from UCLA, has shown a knack for coming through the minors on grassroots — a .382 on-base percentage in 132 games — and he showed the same in his short tenure at the majors. also with a .373 mark in 68 PAs.

The Brewers didn’t give him their first job in midfield, but he’s there to take. If he stays healthy you can expect him to be a strong contender for NL Rookie of the Year.