Bustin’ Out predictions, AL West: Is Jarred Kelenic’s hot spring for real?
One of the best parts of any baseball season is watching the players exceed expectations. These are the guys who, for whatever reason – injuries, youth, lack of opportunities – haven’t been able to fulfill their potential.
Until they do.
Think back to last year. Who would have thought that Andrés Giménez would come sixth in the AL MVP voting? And who knew Spencer Strider would deliver one of the best strikeout seasons ever from a right-handed pitcher? Who knew Nestor Cortes would become one of the most reliable starters of the greats? You probably don’t. But here’s a bet that Andrés, Spencer, and Nestor knew what they were capable of.
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So we’re going to focus on the majors, looking for one player from each team capable of, as they say, becoming a star — or a bigger star — in 2023.
Today: The American League West
Astros: Hunter Brown
Brown’s stuff is exceptional, and with any other team, he might have had a bigger impact in the majors during the second half of the 2022 season. But the Astros’ pitching team was mostly just ridiculous, and finding innings for baseball’s best team was difficult. The right-hander threw 20 1/3 innings, crossed out 22 and posted a .89 ERA. Brown is working to leverage his control this spring — his 3.8 walk rate in the minors has been high, but so has his 11.4 strikeout rate per nine — and once he does that, he’ll become a favorite be to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. He’s talented enough that All-Star consideration isn’t impossible.
Sailors: Jarred Kelenic
Heading into the 2021 season, Kelenic — the Mariners’ prize piece that brought Edwin Diaz closer to the Mets — was ranked the No. 4 in all of baseball. He was one spot behind another Seattle colleague you may have heard of: Julio Rodriguez. It’s safe to say that their MLB paths have taken different paths. While J-Rod became a phenomenon in 2022, Kelenic is struggling to adapt to MLB pitching. In 558 plate appearances over two years, he has a .168 average, a .251 on-base percentage and 66 OPS+ — and his 2022 numbers were worse than 2021. It wasn’t pretty.
But Mariners fans can’t help but be a little excited this spring. Still only 23, Kelenic has crushed the ball with four homers in his first seven games. Will it be different this year? Will he earn PAs with his production instead of just getting them for his talent? If he’s a true left-hander in this Seattle lineup, that would be huge for the Mariners.
Rangers: Jonathan Hernandez
Hernandez made his MLB debut in 2019 and excelled in the 2020 schedule shortened by the pandemic, posting a 2.97/3.19 FIP ERA in 31 innings. However, Tommy John’s surgery wiped out his entire 2021 season and about half of his 2022 season. When he came back in July it was more the same. In 30.1 innings, he had a 2.97 ERA, although his walk rate was much higher (5.0 versus 2.3 in 2020) as he worked his way back.
Now with a “normal” offseason, Hernandez appears to be in the closer mix for Rangers. He’s got what it takes to finish games and Rangers are hoping to have plenty of saves to pass around this summer.
A: Esteury Ruiz
Ruiz hasn’t done much in his short stint in the majors for the Padres and Brewers — .194 average in 17 games — but his numbers in the minors have been staggering. In 114 games on the San Diego and Milwaukee systems (49 in AA, 55 in AAA), Ruiz had 16 home runs, 85 stolen bases, 33 doubles, a .332 average and a .447 on-base percentage. By the way, this stolen base number is not a typo. And because the A’s were traded to him as a key piece of the three-team deal that sent catcher Sean Murphy to Atlanta, you know Oakland will give him every chance to lead the AL in stolen bases.
Angel: Anthony Rendon
OK, yes, that’s a bit of a scam. But this could be the first year Rendon shows Angels fans what he’s capable of in a full season, his fourth year in uniform. His was really good in his freshman year, but the 2020 season was only 60 games. And injuries – so many injuries – limited him to 58 games in 2021 and 47 games in 2022. And when he was in the lineup, he was often not entirely healthy.
So this will be the year. Don’t necessarily expect him to be an MVP contender like he was from 2017-2020, but being a solid MLB third baseman himself would help the Angels a lot in contend for one of the three AL wildcard spots .