Chargers’ horrid end to last season just the latest disappointment

When the Los Angeles Chargers played aggressively last season and took advantage of cap flexibility while Justin Herbert was still out on his rookie contract, they hadn’t aimed for a wildcard spot. But the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t let them anymore, and at least the Chargers would win this wildcard playoff game.

The Chargers led 27-0 in the playoffs against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In more than 100 years of NFL football prior to this Saturday night, only four times had a team gambled away and lost a lead of 27 points or more. This includes the regular season and the playoffs.

Everyone remembers what happened next. It was the pinnacle of Chargering. The Chargers lost, and they lost in regulation. Three of those four comebacks that scored 27 or more points ended in overtime. Los Angeles couldn’t even get the game into overtime. It takes a lot to go wrong to give up a 31-3 run in a playoff game, but if any franchise could do it, it would be the Chargers. Even for the Chargers, the loss was notable: it was the largest lost lead in franchise history. It was also the first time in playoff history that a team had a +5 revenue margin and lost. It all happened after coach Brandon Staley left his key players idle on the line in Week 18 and injured a number, including receiver Mike Williams, who missed the wild card game.

It’s not just a game. These are years of strange losses and disappointments. The Chargers aren’t one of those franchises that haven’t garnered enough talent. They were fortunate to switch from Philip Rivers to Herbert as quarterback. Other Hall of Famer-level players have also emerged from the organization. Apparently, every year we hear how good the Chargers are on paper, and they’re a popular, swanky choice for the Super Bowl. They haven’t won a division title since 2009 and have only had two wildcard playoff wins since then. They have survived the divisional round once since 1994.

These are the Chargers. Why should 2023 be any different?

There’s still talent. Herbert wasn’t particularly good last season, but he’s a high-level quarterback and the addition of Kellen Moore as the team’s new offensive coordinator should help. Perhaps Moore can figure out why the Chargers’ deep passing game dried up last season despite having a quarterback with one of the best arms in the league. Offensive players like Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are fantastic, and the team added first-round receiver Quentin Johnston in this year’s draft. Defenders like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Durwin James are superstars. Someone, somewhere, is looking at the Chargers’ depth chart and telling themselves that Los Angeles will be a Super Bowl contender. It happens every year.

It’s a pivotal year for Staley, who has made some controversial decisions over the past couple of seasons and appeared to be on shaky ground following the loss to the Jaguars. Staley wasn’t fired, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the hot seat. Many of the Chargers’ stars aren’t necessarily old, but edge rushers Mack and Bosa, receivers Allen and Williams, Ekeler, center Corey Linsley, defensive tackle Austin Johnson, and cornerbacks JC Jackson and Michael Davis will all end up being over 27 years old the season. They are no longer a young core and their CVs do not yet have any major team achievements.

Maybe this season will be where it all works out, with Herbert getting into the MVP talk, Bosa winning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and every other blue-chip player staying healthy and having great seasons. But we’ve heard that before.

offseason class

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Chargers. Most of their big steps came last season. The only notable coming and going happened at the linebacker. Drue Tranquill joined the Chiefs and was replaced by longtime Minnesota Viking Eric Kendricks. That’s all. The Chargers’ biggest move was the resignation of offensive tackle Trey Pipkins to a three-year, $21.75 million contract. The draft was decent, with first-round receiver Quentin Johnston leading the class. Unlike last offseason, this has been boring for the Chargers.

Degree: C

quarterback report

Justin Herbert’s renewal is coming up. There wasn’t much news about it, which is probably a good thing. At some point, Herbert will become, or be close to, the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback. Then Joe Burrow will likely sign a contract with the Cincinnati Bengals that surpasses Herbert’s contract. Jalen Hurts signed a contract worth $51 million a season and then Lamar Jackson surpassed that at $52 million and it’s safe to assume Herbert will be around that area. Herbert faltered a bit in a phenomenal 2021 season (5,014 yards and 38 TDs in 2021; 4,739 yards and 25 TDs last season), but his status among the NFL’s top quarterbacks is pretty clear. He’ll be getting his salary soon and will likely continue to put in great seasons, although the high salary caps will pose a challenge for the Chargers in the years to come.

Breakdown of BetMGM odds

The Chargers aren’t buried in the rankings because they were a 10-win playoff team and have a talented roster led by a good quarterback. But I’m not optimistic that they will make a positive step forward. Their win total at BetMGM is 9.5 and I’d rather lean under that, but I’d rather bet the Chargers not make the playoffs at odds of -105. Even if the Chargers win ten games, I can’t pick them as division winners, and the competition for wildcard spots in the AFC will be fierce. There are more than seven playoff-quality teams in the conference. Take the Chargers to miss the playoffs.

Yahoo’s fantasy version

From Scott Pianowski of Yahoo: “There’s nothing wrong with a selection from Keenan Allen, I suppose. It’s just a floor pick.”

“Allen hasn’t played a full season since 2019. He never scored more than eight touchdowns in a year. He’s starting his season at age 31 and the Chargers have increased their wide receiver room.”

“If I’m going to justify this type of pick, I want my other above-the-fold picks to gleam with upside potential. In other words, Allen is more of a reactive than a proactive choice for me this draft season. I prefer My first pick consists mostly of players who are still on the escalator to the top.

Statistics to remember

Austin Ekeler wasn’t happy with his contract and with the running back market dying, it’s easy to see why he wanted a new contract. The Chargers added $1.75 million in incentives to Ekeler’s contract last year, and he said he wasn’t angry about the situation. That’s good because the Chargers rely heavily on Ekeler. His 38 total touchdowns over the past two seasons lead the NFL. He’s had 177 receptions over the past two seasons, including 107 last season. Ekeler turns 28 this season and should be in position to put in another great season and then he can see what awaits him in free agency. If Ekeler is ever absent this season, the Chargers will quickly find out just how valuable he is.

burning question

Can the defense make a big step?

Last season, the Chargers should be good on defense. They were mediocre at best. Joey Bosa missed most of the season with a groin injury. Cornerback JC Jackson, a big free agent signing, was struggling and his season ended with a torn patellar tendon. Khalil Mack wasn’t bad, but he didn’t look like a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Chargers were decent against the pass and couldn’t stop the run at all. Defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill joined the Miami Dolphins and was replaced by assistant coach Derrick Ansley. There is much to do. It starts with the stars of the team having good seasons. If that happens and pass-rushing duo Bosa/Mack live up to last year’s hype, Jackson comes back and plays like an $82.5M cornerback, and a linebacker change is positive, maybe it can make a top-10 – Become a unit.

Best case scenario

There’s an alternate universe where the Chargers don’t have terrible luck with injuries, don’t screw up games in staggering ways, and actually go on to become one of the best teams in the NFL. Justin Herbert has MVP advantage. There is more than enough talent around him to be in the top five on offense and defense should be better under Brandon Staley. It might come together. If so, and you want to be really optimistic, maybe there’s a way for the Chargers to win the AFC West. It’s not that the squad doesn’t have that ability.

nightmare scenario

Brandon Staley was overly reckless at times in his first season. Then he seemed to go conservative at the wrong time last season. He ended last season with two fiascos: letting his regulars play (and getting injured) in a meaningless Week 18 game and failing to make the playoffs in Jacksonville. It’s not often that you hear hot speculation about coaches winning ten games and making the playoffs, but for Staley there was some after last season. Unless the offense improves significantly with new coordinator Kellen Moore and a continued lack of deep passing plays Justin Herbert and defense doesn’t make progress, the Chargers could miss the playoffs. If Staley was in trouble after last season, he would surely be in trouble again if there was no postseason for the Chargers.

The crystal ball says…

I can’t trust the chargers. I’ve walked this path too many times, and it always ends in agony. They won’t be bad, but they will leave you wanting more. I can’t get the Chargers ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC West and wildcard racing is going to be tough. The Chargers will be in the playoff bubble towards the end of the season. Given her history, I expect there will be a few bewildering losses that will put her off. In that case, they need to think about a change in head coach.

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