College Basketball Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Saturday: UCLA-Arizona, Texas-Kansas, & North Carolina-Duke highlight big day
Saturday marks the penultimate day of college basketball’s regular season, and basketball fanatics are treated to a jam-packed slate led by three marquee matchups: UCLA-Arizona, Texas-Kansas and North Carolina-Duke. North Carolina is the only bubble team of these six schools and the team most desperate to win. The rest of the schools are banned from NCAA tournaments, but it never hurts to add another quality asset to your resume.
Will UCLA secure their 18th conference win to close out the Pac-12 game? How will Kansas fare on its first-ever trip to the Moody Center? Can the Tar Heels secure their second Quad 1 win of the season? Sporting News looks at the odds for all three marquee games while providing the best bet for each matchup.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
#4 UCLA vs #8 Arizona odds, tips, best bet
- spread: UCLA -5.5 (-106); Arizona +5.5 (-114)
- About Below: OVER 147.5 (-115); BELOW 147.5 (-105)
- money line: UCLA-220; Arizona +180
No. 4 UCLA is looking to end the Pac-12 conference game with an 18-2 record, leveling the regular-season streak against No. 8 Arizona. UCLA is currently on the nation’s eighth longest winning streak (nine games) and has all the makings of a return to a Final Four for the second time in three seasons.
With UCLA’s moneyline at -220 (68.75 percent implied probability), there’s a chance the Bruins will take care of business at home and avoid the regular-season win over the Wildcats, but coverage of the current spread of 5, 5 points is another task. Arizona has yet to finish this season as an underdog as they will be underdogs for the first time this season on Saturday.
In the Wildcats’ 58-52 win over the Bruins on Jan. 21, Arizona held UCLA to just .79 points per possession, with 36.2 percent from two-point territory and 20 percent from three-point territory shot. While UCLA still has one of the better offenses in college basketball (22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency), they are significantly better on the defensive end of the court (second in adjusted defensive efficiency).
An Arizona offense with KenPom’s sixth most efficient offense (120.8 points per 100 possessions) should be able to hang around and stay within a few possessions. The Wildcats probably won’t win outright in the end, but we got the 5.5 points with a team that hasn’t had to be underdogs all season yet.
Best Bet: Arizona +5.5 (-114)
#9 Texas vs #3 Kansas odds, tips, best bet
- spread: Texas -2.5 (-114); Kansas +2.5 (-106)
- About Below: OVER 148.5 (-114); BELOW 148.5 (-106)
- money line: Texas -146; Kansas +122
After directly winning the Big 12 regular-season title, No. 3 Kansas travels to Austin to take on No. 9 Texas at the Moody Center. Kansas finds itself on the road as a two-point outsider, trying to give Texas just their second loss in their new homeland, but picking up a road win in Austin won’t be easy, despite the Longhorns amid a two-game losing streak.
Texas fought hard in the 88-80 away loss to Kansas on February 6, despite being up to 14 points behind in the first half. The Longhorns pair up fairly well with the Jayhawks and held their ground defensively, despite going into Saturday’s regular-season Finals with the ninth-best defensive rebound rate in the Big 12 (31.4 percent).
Kansas is not overly tall on the frontcourt and has struggled with offensive rebounds in conference play, ranking eighth in the conference for offensive rebound rate (27.7 percent). When the Jayhawks struggle to convert their first shots, it becomes harder to generate a consistent offense. We think the Longhorns’ defense is holding back Jayhawks regular Jalen Wilson while their backcourt emerges on offense and helps Texas secure a home win on Seniors Day.
Best Bet: Texas -2.5 (-114)
North Carolina vs Duke odds, tips, best bet
- spread: North Carolina -2.5 (-110); Duke +2.5 (-110)
- About Below: OVER 143.5 (-110); BELOW 143.5 (-110)
- money line: North Carolina -138; Duke +115
North Carolina is slowly gaining momentum in the postseason and has an opportunity to claim its second Quad 1 win with a home win over its archrival. The Heels are currently considered a two-point home favorite over the Blue Devils and are looking to end the regular season with a 13-2 record at the Dean Dome.
Avoiding a regular-season win against a well-rounded Duke group will take a collective effort of which North Carolina is capable. In his first encounter against Duke, a 63-57 away loss, center Armando Bacot held his own against one of the nation’s most talented frontcourts to hit a double-double (14 points, 10 rebounds). Bacot will once again have his hands full keeping Duke center Dereck Lively off the glass, but he has a chance to neutralize him enough that the backcourt could decide the game.
Guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis both ended their first matchup against Duke on below-average offensive stats as the duo combined just 23 points on 10 of 31 shots from the field. With Love and Davis likely to have high shot volume again, better shooting performance is a must if the Heels have any hope of defeating Duke. They also have to put the brakes on Jeremy Roach, who added 20 points on eight-of-20 shooting from the field.
Like most Duke-North Carolina matchups, this one is about final possessions, and we think the Tar Heels are the beneficiaries of more 50-50 balls, resulting in North Carolina’s second Quad 1 win of the season.