Colts at Broncos predictions: Odds, total, player props, pick, how to watch ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos will start Week 5 in the NFL when these AFC clubs go head-to-head Thursday night at Empower Field in Mile High. In the first month of the season, these two teams haven’t really reached the top of what many of them expected for the year, especially after both teams improved at quarterback during the offseason. The Broncos go into this game 2-2 while Indy sits 1-2-1.

Here we will be looking specifically at the different betting angles this game has to offer. Along with the spread and totals, we’ll also take a look at some players’ props and offer our picks on how we think this showdown will play out.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

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Date: Thursday 6 Oct | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Consequences: CBS Sports App
Opportunities: Broncos -3.5, O/U 42

line movement

Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Broncos opened as a 3.5-point favorite when that line first opened in the spring. Since then, we’ve seen that reading drop a full point in the look-ahead where it was Denver -2.5. This line moved back to Broncos -3.5 after the events of week 4 and after dipping to Broncos -3 it’s back to Broncos -3.5.

The selection: Stallions +3.5. This has the makings of an ugly game in Denver, so getting more than one field goal with Indy feels like good value. Denver will be without running back Javonte Williams (ACL) and Randy Gregory (knee) in this game, drastically injuring both sides of the ball. Indy has also struggled with injuries, particularly with reigning rushing champion Jonathan Taylor ruled out with an ankle injury. Franck Reich, on the other hand, usually always had his team ready for action at prime time. Under his supervision, the Colts 9-2 ATS are under the lights. Meanwhile, the Broncos rank last in red-zone touchdown percentage (30%) and have a 48% punt rate (the worst in the NFL). That suggests we’re going to be watching a hard-fought game, and the Field Goal Plus pad is a nice thing to have in your back pocket.

key trend: Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight loss

Over/Under total

The total opened at 44 in the spring and fell a full point to 43 in the outlook. It has shifted between 42.5 and 43.5 over the past week but has leveled off at 42 on the eve of this neck-and-neck race leveled off.

The selection: under 42. The Under is a combined 7-1 between those teams this season and it feels like we could be headed for another low goals affair on Thursday night. Both teams are bottom three in the league in points per game this season, with the Colts sitting last with an average of 14.3 and the Broncos sitting 30th in the NFL with 16.5. As we noted above, Denver has been terrible in the red this season and that should only get worse with Javonte Williams now out for the season with a cruciate ligament rupture. Since last season, the under has scored in 71% of Broncos games, and those competitions have averaged 37.7 total points per game.

key trend: The Under is 9-0 in the Colts’ last nine games.

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  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (above +114, below -157)
  • Passing yards: 233.5 (above -106, below -129)
  • Frenzied courtyards: 2.5 (above -106, below -129)
  • Longest passport completion: 36.5 (above -121, below -113)
  • Interruptions: 0.5 (above -123, below -111)

The over on Ryan’s interception prop is a strong play. He’ll likely have to pass more often when Taylor is out, giving Ryan more opportunities to throw it into the arms of a Broncos defenseman. In his last three short-pause starts, Ryan has thrown six interceptions. He also has five to four games this season.

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  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (above +116, below -160)
  • Passing yards: 229.5 (above -137, below +100)
  • Frenzied courtyards: 13.5 (above -101, below -135)
  • pass attempts: 31.5 (above -109, below -125)
  • Longest passport completion: 35.5 (above -117, below -117)
  • completions: 19.5 (above -133, below -103)
  • Interruptions: 0.5 (above -108, below -127)

Wilson is struggling with a right shoulder injury, but it doesn’t look like it will stop him from playing. That said, an injury to a quarterback’s throwing shoulder is bound to slow him down a bit, right? That got me leaning on the Under on his 229.5-yard stay. He’s fallen short of that total twice in the past three weeks, averaging 213.3 yards per game. Factor in the injury and it’s hard to see his passing stats seeing a drastic increase even as the Williams injury potentially forces him to pass more often.

Player Props to Consider

Melvin Gordon Total Rushing Yards: Under 54.5 (-199). The prevailing thought is that Gordon should see an uptick in working with Williams this year. Yes, that’s certainly possible, but Mike Boone will also be part of the calculus. Last week, Boone passed Gordon by 36% to 19%. In the second half, Boone saw three carries and four goals while Gordon received two carries and one goal. With that in mind, this could be more of a committee than most think and if Gordon continues to struggle he could be on the bench this game.

Michael Pittman Total Receptions: Over 5.5 (+106). Pittman has surpassed that number twice this season and has been Ryan’s only reliable option in the passing game. Ryan completes 71% of his passes for Pittman with a 106.8 passer rating. For every other wideout on the list, Ryan executes 59% of his shots with a passer rating of 56.4. Without Taylor, Ryan could lean even more on Pittman to move the chains, giving us value for money here.

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