Complete Unknown for Paul Nicholls

COMPLETE UNKNOWN (Paul Nicholls) – March 18, 2023

The 2022 EBF Hurdle Final winner Complete Unknown always looked the sort to make an even better chaser, so it was no great surprise that he produced a really smart effort in routing his field in Kempton’s feature handicap chase on Saturday.

Complete Unknown had had two previous runs over fences, landing a novice handicap at Ffos Las then finishing runner-up in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick. He’d been outpointed by the front-running Galia des Liteaux in a small field at Warwick, the return to a well-run handicap at Kempton, even back down in trip, showing him in a much better light.

Given a good sight of his fences, Complete Unknown turned in a very solid round of jumping and having travelled smoothly soon had his race won after taking over at the second-last. He was by no means all out to score by 16 lengths from Silver Hallmark.

Complete Unknown will face quite a hike in the weights, were he to be kept to handicaps, but the level of form he showed suggests another try in graded company would be well worth a shot. It is possible that running in bigger fields in handicaps shows him to best advantage and that will be where his future lies, but he could yet be better than a handicapper.

The Grade 1 Manifesto at Aintree or the Grade 2 Future Champions at Ayr – a race his stable has farmed over the years – would both be options.

However, given how this horse has gained his most notable wins going right handed, a trip to Punchestown might be on the cards.

The once-raced winning pointer Seeyouinmydreams made short work of her 11 opponents in the mares bumper that concluded Newbury’s card on Saturday.

She went off freely in the lead, had her rivals all in trouble early in the straight and coasted through the final furlong to score unchallenged.

There wasn’t much form to go on among her rivals, but she surely ran to a useful level.

Bought for 235,000 guineas, not long after her point win in April last year, Seeyouinmydreams had had a breathing operation in the autumn.

That appeared of no concern, as she was strong in the betting for her switch to bumpers and gave her supporters few anxious moments.

The Nickel Coin, the Grade 2 mares bumper at Aintree, looks an obvious target, and the level she ran to on Saturday is likely to place her among the form picks, with plenty more looking to be in reserve.

SHISHKIN (Nicky Henderson) – February 18, 2023

Shishkin was simply stunning at Ascot on Saturday, any thought that his no-show in the Champion Chase last March or his lacklustre effort in December’s Tingle Creek might be leading to the end of his career swept away.

He produced as good a performance as has been seen over fences this season, and is rightly a short price for next month’s Ryanair Chase.

To what extent Shishkin’s revival is down to the further breathing operation he has had since Sandown is hard to know. However, his relish for an increased test of stamina was clear.

Having his first start beyond around two miles over fences, Shishkin travelled sweetly throughout and was strong in the closing stages after hitting the front just after the second-last.

The favourite Fakir d’Oudairies was a bit flat and below his best, but the runner-up Pic d’Orhy ran his race and the longer-priced runners were well beaten, the overall time also supporting a very positive view of the form.

Shishkin looks almost certain to contest the Ryanair, and with Allaho out, the race looks his for the taking. And yet, he still holds a Cheltenham Gold Cup entry, and there is a case for running in the bigger, longer race. Firstly, there is Shishkin’s age and history: he’s already 9 and this might be his only chance for a serious crack at the Gold Cup. Added to that, his pedigree overall offers encouragement for seeing out the extra distance.

It’s not hard to picture Shishkin, on that Friday afternoon, full of running behind the leaders approaching three out. Wouldn’t it be something to see what unfolds from there?

LOVE IS GOLDEN (Gary Moore) – February 12, 2023

It was an afternoon of upsets at Newbury on Saturday, with the ground – much firmer on times than the official ‘Good, Good to Firm in places’ – the principal cause. There were plenty of runners hanging under pressure or not going from a much earlier stage than might be expected. As such, some of the form looks best treated with a degree of caution.

The most impressive winner of the afternoon was Love Is Golden, who scored on hurdling debut in a novice that has been won by plenty of good horses over the years. He was making his debut for Gary Moore after a full career on the Flat for Mark and Charlie Johnston, bought for 40,000 guineas at the Autumn Sales.

Love Is Golden, a Flat type in physique, ran 13 times, winning once, on the level in 2022, and his former yard isn’t one that leaves much to be exploited with its cast-offs, so it’s all credit to his new connections that he looked to have the potential to take his form to a higher level as a hurdler.

Having raced mid-field, Love Is Golden got right in contention with a good jump three out, quickening away on the run-in after being left in control at the last by the fall of the beaten pacemaker Russian Ruler.

The ground does still raise a question about the value of the form. Then, there’s always a slight concern with an exposed ex-Flat runner as to whether they will build on a promising hurdling debut. However, Love Is Golden is in a stable with a better record than most with this type of horse. He isn’t entered at Cheltenham – thankfully – but a run in the Dovecote at Kempton at the end of the month, with a trip to Aintree in mind, wouldn’t be out of the question

GERRI COLOMBE (Gordon Elliott) – February 5, 2023

While the focus over the last couple of days has understandably been on the Dublin Racing Festival, the one British Grade 1 race of the weekend, the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown, threw up a winner in Gerri Colombe with the potential to make a big impact in the top prizes at the spring festivals, given the chance.

It’s easy to list the positives with Gerri Colombe: physically looking the part of a good chaser, he is a very solid jumper, shows a willing attitude and has now won twice at the top level over fences, despite looking to find two and a half miles on the sharp side.

That was certainly the case on Saturday, where he was in trouble briefly after Balco Coastal quickened three out.

Gerri Colombe rallied at the next and was ahead soon after the last, the climb to the line enabling him to extend the advantage to a length and three quarters.

The form probably isn’t quite so good as L’Homme Presse showed in winning the Scilly Isles last season, though generally it looks well up to standard.

As such it places Gerri Colombe firmly among the very best novices at two and a half miles or further this winter.

Given how well he seems likely to be suited by three miles, he surely has more to offer.

Gerri Colombe isn’t in the Turners at Cheltenham, entered only in the longer Brown Advisory and the NH Chase, which tells its own tale.

The Brown Advisory, for which he is now generally favourite, would look the more obvious option, although he’s reportedly not a certain starter in either.

It would certainly detract from the race were connections to decide to give the most prestigious race in its category a miss.

ENERGUMENE (Willie Mullins) – January 28, 2023

Energumene was beaten in the Clarence House Chase for the second year running. Last season (when he was denied in the final strides at Ascot by Shishkin) there were clearly grounds for remaining upbeat about his Champion Chase prospects; and with Shishkin flopping on the big day, Energumene duly went one better.

Do his prospects still look rosy after defeat at Cheltenham not only by his main rival Edwardstone, but by Editeur du Gite as well?

Energumene remains very likely to go into the Champion Chase with the best form, so from that point of view, there is nothing the pair that beat him on Saturday did that requires him to be better than he has been previously.

The Clarence House turned on jumping and tactics, and Energumene could have been better on the first and connections will surely tweak the second, so again there are grounds for optimism. Although he sometimes makes the running, Energumene’s rider Paul Townend was happy for Editeur du Gite to set the pace. Perhaps there was an expectation that Niall Houlihan would go to fast in front, but he judged the pace perfectly for the track.

In addition, Editeur du Gite’s sound jumping kept him with a cushion over his rivals.

This told on Energumene in the straight. He fiddled two out when starting to give chase and hit the last when still around two lengths down and joined by Edwardstone in second. It’s doubtful Energumene would have won, even without the errors, though he’d have been significantly closer.

Clearly Edwardstone, ridden to beat Energumene and doing really well to almost beat the unconsidered Editeur du Gite, enhanced his Champion Chase claims.

However, on balance of form, rather than Saturday’s Clarence House, Energumene remains the one to beat in March.

PIC D’ORHY (Paul Nicholls) – January 14, 2023

Despite winning the Betfair Hurdle three seasons ago, Pic d’Orhy is only now reaching his peak, his career-best performance in the Silviniaco Conti at Kempton that of a high-class chaser, his profile of steady progression so typical of his trainer Paul Nicholls’ methods.

At face value, a cosy 16-length defeat of Clondaw Castle could be viewed even more positively, as form potentially to put him right in the mix for the Ryanair Chase, though there are grounds for taking a more conservative approach to the result.

Firstly, the conditions at Kempton were particularly testing for the track and plenty of horses on the card just didn’t cope with them – for example, just four out of 20 runners completed in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, which is obviously highly unusual for a race of that type.

Secondly, Pic d’Orhy, the form pick to start with, very much had the run of the race against rivals whose credentials were hardly the most solid to begin with.

Pic d’Orhy, under Harry Cobden, was able to get into a good rhythm in front, all bar one of his opponents sitting some way off the pace on the final circuit; largely jumping well and not going flat out, he was able to move decisively clear on the turn for home without being extended.

Pic d’Orhy is entered in the Ryanair. His only previous run at Cheltenham came when down the field in the 2019 Triumph on his British debut, so there is a question as to how effective he would be at the track (though that wasn’t the issue with his run then).

Given his stable, it would be no surprise to see him swerve the Festival in search of a weaker Grade 1. The Melling Chase at Aintree would generally be a more achievable option, though the Ascot Chase next month might be a tempting target in the meantime.

TAHMURAS (Paul Nicholls) – January 7, 2023

Despite getting a few things wrong, Tahmuras made it three from three over hurdles as he stepped up in grade to land the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown.

He made mistakes at the last two flights and still looked green as he wandered on the run-in, but he saw the race out well under testing conditions.

There is clearly more to come as he gains experience and, probably, once he steps up in distance.

This wasn’t a vintage Tolworth – hard for it to be a year on from Constitution Hill’s win in the race – and there are obvious reasons for talking the race down.

The exciting mare Luccia would have been a warm favourite had she not been ruled out after a set-back, the favourite in her place Authorised Speed scoped dirty after the race and the grand-looking Arctic Bresil, third in the market, ran no sort of race either.

It could be further added that Tahmuras was chased home by three of the longer-priced runners, but I wouldn’t use that as grounds for knocking the form.

None of that trio had run more than twice over hurdles previously, with good reason to think they could progress. I’d be hopeful those in the frame could confirm the improvement they seemed to show here.

Inevitably, Tahmuras was talked up for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ afterwards, Summerville Boy and Constitution Hill having done the double in recent seasons.

However, Tahmuras’s form in winning at Sandown doesn’t look so good as that pair achieved and it’s likely that Tahmuras would need soft ground to be competitive against the speedier types he might face there.

THE REAL WHACKER (Patrick Neville) – January 1, 2023

Make no mistake, The Real Whacker has the potential to go right to the top as a chaser.

He might be with a small yard and have a pretty ordinary pedigree, but he’s a rangy sort who stood out on condition in the field for the Paddy Power (Dipper) Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on Sunday and he gave some better fancied rivals a jumping lesson.

The Real Whacker, runner-up in the Grade 2 River Don from four starts over hurdles, is every inch a chaser on looks and he’s quickly taken his form to a higher level in two starts over fences.

Held up over hurdles, he has been ridden from the front in both his novice chases; that, in combination with his good jumping, gaining the day in a narrow success over three miles at the Cheltenham November meeting.

In the Dipper over half a mile shorter, The Real Whacker was ridden with plenty of purpose, again jumping boldly, the pressure applied drawing mistakes from his rivals.

He was chased into the straight by the smart hurdler Monmiral, who looked a threat, but The Real Whacker found extra under pressure to draw away again at the line.

BRAVEMANSGAME (Paul Nicholls) – December 26, 2022

There are two aspects to address with what Bravemansgame did in the King George: firstly, how his performance went to the next level as he stepped up in class, which augurs very well for his longer-term prospects; secondly what it says specifically about his Cheltenham Gold Cup prospects.

In terms of performance on the day, Bravemansgame was just about perfect, not put off by L’Homme Presse jumping left just ahead of him, always in a good position on the outside to cover any move made by his rivals and picking up as soon as he was asked.

It’s a pity L’Homme Presse departed when seemingly held at the last, as it requires a considered guess rather than a concrete measure to judge the winner’s superiority. Two lengths would seem to me a fair estimate, though I wouldn’t argue too much if it was suggested it might have been a bit further or slightly less.Which takes us to the Gold Cup.

The level of form is good enough, indeed Bravemansgame is more of a threat on form to Galopin des Champs than the current market indicates. The question is his stamina, though Boxing Day’s performance offered more encouragement in that regard than perhaps Wetherby (on his reappearance) did.

Concerns probably weigh more with Bravemansgame’s pre-race performance than what he did in the race. He wore a red hood and was still on his toes, given permission to skip the parade and go ahead of the others to the start.

On performance, he is likely to stay the extra quarter-mile at Cheltenham, while L’Homme Presse will stay it.

Does that distinction, along with the switch left-handed, make Bravemansgame vulnerable to L’Homme Presse?

DUSART (Nicky Henderson) – December 9, 2022

View from the track:

Dusart was sent off favourite for the open 3m handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday, but could finish only sixth behind his stable companion Captain Morgs.

Both runners attracted support, but it was Captain Morgs that coped better with the way the race unfolded. The omission of the final hurdle due to the low sun meant the tempo lifted only after the last, which is usually two out.

Such a test of speed, on good ground, didn’t suit the stout stayer Dusart who was left trailing into the straight.

That Dusart was running over hurdles at all was something of a negative. Although he’d finished third in the 2021 Sefton on just his second outing over hurdles, he very much has the physique of a chaser and did well over fences last season, winning three of his four starts.

After landing two small-field affairs at short odds, Dusart contested the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival, where he didn’t do at all badly, given his limited experience. On his final start, he had won a valuable novice handicap at Ayr, off a mark of 147.

It’s the sort of profile that might suggest the Coral Gold Cup as an early target; indeed, Dusart was entered and the race was mentioned as an option, but he didn’t make the field.

Friday’s Cheltenham card had a £70k Premier Handicap over the Gold Cup trip, which might have been a more obvious choice than the hurdle.

Dusart had a breathing operation and treatment to his back over the summer, so the supposed softer option was chosen.

SHISHKIN (Nicky Henderson) – December 3, 2022

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Where now for Shishkin?

That is perhaps the most intriguing question to come out of Saturday’s Betfair Tingle Creek. It’s easy to see where the impressive winner Edwardstone will be going, and even the runner-up Greaneteen has an obvious set of races in which to run. But for Shishkin, everything is up in the air.

Shishkin looked okay beforehand, fit, even if one or two others shone rather more obviously. His performance wasn’t the too-bad-to-be-true blowout that the Champion Chase was. He was there with a chance when he belted three out, not going so well as either of the pair that beat him for quite a while, done with after the error.

Perhaps his trainer’s instant assessment, that Shishkin was no long a two-miler and would be going up in trip, is the right way to read matters. His pedigree gives plenty of encouragement for such a path and he did win a Sidney Banks over two and a half miles as a novice hurdler.

However, it seems odd that this thought is there now, but presumably wasn’t there when entries for the King George were being made. Here’s a horse with a Supreme, an Arkle, a Maghull and an epic Clarence House on his cv that is suddenly not a two-miler.

The other possibility is that the effort required to overhaul Energumene in the Clarence House was so great that Shishkin hasn’t fully recovered, indeed may never do so.

The Silviniaco Conti appeals as a likely sort of race to rehabilitate his cause. A watching brief until after that, so far as any spring targets are concerned, seems the safest course.

THYME HILL (Philip Hobbs) – November 26, 2022

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Given how well he looked to have taken to fences at Exeter on his first attempt, leading staying hurdler Thyme Hill was a sorry disappointment in the John Francome Novices’ Chase at Newbury.

He looked windy after ballooning the first open ditch and, once the race began in earnest, he was comprehensively outjumped over the last four fences by the winner McFabulous.

In Thyme Hill’s defence, a tactical race on good ground wouldn’t have brought his stamina into play and, in terms of figures, it’s arguable that he hasn’t run at all badly. That said, he’d be very hard to fancy in something like the Kauto Star on this showing.

His paddock appearance beforehand probably gives a clue to another issue – he looked lean, his appearance in contrast to the winner who was off an even shorter break.

Thyme Hill’s overall profile suggests a horse that needs time between his races. He’s only once had three runs without at least a two-month break after the first or second.

Where to go now? Thyme Hill has come to chasing relatively late in his career, turning nine in January.

Given he’s likely now to have a break, it would surely make sense to draw stumps on chasing and aim him at the Stayers’ Hurdle in March.

BOOTHILL (Harry Fry) – November 19, 2022

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The furore around the ground at Ascot and the withdrawal of Constitution Hill meant the quality of Boothill‘s performance in winning the Hurst Park Handicap Chase went under the radar.

It shouldn’t have done: Boothill, having just his third start over fences, put up a performance that would put him right in the mix for any graded novice chase before Cheltenham. However, he doesn’t appear to have been given a single quote for the Sporting Life Arkle.

It’s not surprising that Boothill is already a much better chaser than he was a hurdler, having the physique and demeanour of one.

He disappointed on his one try over fences last season, but won well at Newton Abbot on his return and there was a lot to like about the way he won on Saturday.

Given a good sight of his fences, he jumped with assurance, and after travelling with zest, he saw the race out strongly too.

The Henry VIII at Sandown might come a bit quick and is the target of Arkle favourite Jonbon, so the Wayward Lad at Kempton at Christmas could be a good option.

BANBRIDGE (Joseph O’Brien) – November 12, 2022

View from the track:

There was no one standout performance over the three days of Cheltenham’s November meeting, but for my money, Banbridge is the horse that did the most to stake his claim for top honours.

Banbridge is already a Cheltenham Festival winner, having landed the Martin Pipe over hurdles last spring, but physically he’s very much a chaser, a rangy gelding with bags of scope, and his fluent fencing was the key to his victory in Saturday’s Arkle Trial.

Faced by a quartet who’d shown form a stone better than he had over hurdles, he gave them a jumping lesson, just needing to be pushed out to defeat Tommy’s Oscar by six lengths.

The time of the race looks good and Banbridge wouldn’t have much to find to reach a place in the Arkle itself. And there’s definitely more to come.

Although he’s raced mostly over further, he’s not short of speed and two miles will continue to pose no issues for him over fences.

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