Czech Masters preview and best bets

• Over the past month, Ben’s previews have picked out winners at 28/1, 25/1 and 28/1 to take his annual profit beyond +150 points. Get his full tipping record here.

Golf betting tips: Czech Masters

2pts e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Julien Brun at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Victor Dubuisson at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Gavin Green at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Jake McLeod at 400/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Ian Poulter takes another much needed break from golf in this week’s Czech Masters, one of a handful of so-called LIV rebels (not a team name, because it actually sounds like a team name and that won’t do) taking part in a tournament which represents an upgrade on last week – at least in terms of field strength.

Laurie Canter and Hennie du Plessis are the others, unless they’ve now been deemed surplus to requirements of course, but the top of the market is rightly dominated by a man who could so easily have won this event three times in five, Thomas Pieters. It was here in 2015 that Pieters earned his first DP World Tour title, one he came within a whisker of defending, and it was here that he ended a three-year drought back in 2019.

That week, the awesome Belgian got the better of rookie Adri Arnaus and in 2015, his chief victim was Pelle Edberg. These three players tell you so much about what you need to do here at Albatross, and so do Johannes Veerman, Tapio Pulkkanen and Sean Crocker, last year’s one-two-three, who also give the ball a mighty whack. Not only does this resort course invite players to do so regularly, but it seldom punishes them for straying off-line.

Such a formula calls to mind some of the easier editions of the Portugal Masters, with its trampled-down rough, and also the Saudi International. Pieters boasts an excellent record there, Arnaus could so easily have won this year’s edition, and once more there’s huge reward for those who can get after it off the tee. That suggests we might dodge a Poulter win and makes Victor Perez every inch the right second favourite.

Of the two, Pieters makes more appeal and as 7/1 shots go he’s by no means a bad one. Some might tell you he’s one of the sport’s great underachievers and I certainly feel there’s a lot more under the bonnet, but we’re talking about a six-time winner whose 28th place in the Open last time out is high-class form for this grade, so if you can get six or seven places you might be on an each-way bet to nothing.

Then again, the Open was a month ago and we saw in last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship that returning under very different conditions can be difficult. My view is that Will Zalatoris benefited from reacquainting himself with the PGA Tour in the weeks prior to his breakthrough, and I’m not sure the market has paid any attention to Pieters’ absence.

Would he have been 5/1 had he played four solid rounds last week? I doubt it. Could it be the thing that catches him out? Yes.

Two players made my list for this before research even began but with Matti Schmid electing to head to Korn Ferry Tour Finals instead, the headline vote goes to WILCO NIENABER.

The longest driver in this field, Nienaber is heading to arguably the most suitable course for him on the DP World Tour. Green Eagle in Germany is longer on the scorecard but with water everywhere and some par-fives occasionally beyond even his reach, Albatross seems to me to be the premiere destination for a big-hitter like him.

That’s in contrast to last week, where a degree of accuracy was needed, so for Nienaber to finish 23rd goes down as highly encouraging. He said he didn’t much like the multi-course format, nevertheless was delighted with an opening 66 which he called his best round in a while, adding that his ball-striking was ‘really good’.

Subsequent rounds of 72, 71 and 69 at Galgorm Castle are fine by me and he really should improve a good deal for coming back to Albatross, where he was 14th at halfway before a chastening weekend on his sole visit in 2019. Back then, we were only just hearing about this freak athlete and what he might do, and he was very raw. The fact that he was closer to the lead here than anywhere else all year is another indication as to how suitable it is.

Having been seventh thanks largely to a second-round 61 three starts ago, it’s also fair to say that, combined with 21st a few weeks prior to that in Germany and 23rd last week, the youngster is in form. And as for that remarkable round of golf at Fairmont St Andrews, remember it’s a score also shot by Ewen Ferguson that day, and he carried that with him towards a second DP World Tour title a couple of weeks later.

The other angle to note is the Race to Dubai. Last year, Nienaber came up just short of full DP World Tour status, hence just 11 starts so far this season. He then went back to the Challenge Tour where, having given others a head start by dividing his time between circuits, he also came up just short. It will have been enormously frustrating and, from 141st in the standings right now, something he’s keen to avoid a repeat of.

If all of this sounds water-tight and you are new, I should stress that with such power comes volatility, and there would be worries around his putting even more so than his approach play. However, even allowing for the increase in field strength, if he drives the ball the way he usually does here at Albatross he ought to improve upon last week’s finish, and that puts him right in the mix.

While Nienaber was a straightforward decision, it would be fair to say I’ve gone back and forth on Crocker, ultimately deciding to leave him out. Runner-up last year when by far the best ball-striker in the field, he’s since shown what happens when he holes a few putts by winning in Scotland, and I made him my headline bet for the Wales Open just days later on the basis that he could kick on beyond this level.

That remains my belief, and he in fact drove the ball considerably better at Celtic Manor than he had when winning, with his approach play similar. The problem is that his short-game exploits at Fairmont St Andrews stand out as totally anomalous and at the prices, I’d rather suggest would-be backers wait for a potential exchange drift and use him as a saver if edging towards 40/1 come tee-off.

I feel very similarly about Richard Mansell, a player I like a lot but will just have to miss if he does win. He was also in my staking plan at 55/1 two weeks ago and having played well in Northern Ireland, as he did here last year, of course made the shortlist again. The trouble is he’s more than halved in price, the favourite here is much stronger, and I simply don’t believe he represents value.

French fancies

Instead then we’ll pivot to a peculiar and coincidental theme with ANTOINE ROZNER heading a list of three French players, one I could even have stretched to four.

Rozner is selected for the simple reason that his long-game really is back now, and it seems to me to be a matter of time before he puts it all together and contends for what would be a third DP World Tour title.

The two he’s won so far have come in contrasting conditions, from a shootout in Dubai to a windswept slog in Qatar, and while he’s yet to play Albatross, note that he is a winner in Prague from his days on the Challenge Tour.

As we often find, a ho-hum set of form figures explain a price which undersells his ability, not just in winning terms but in overall skill level, and yet there’s much more to it. He has simply putted to an abysmal standard on two of his last three starts, both on links greens, and whereas for Crocker that’s normal, where Rozner is concerned there’s plenty of good to go with the bad.

Despite these issues, he ought to be thrilled with the state of his long-game. Rozner drove it just about as well as he ever has in the Hero Open, and has got that club singing again this summer. The same is true for his approach work, which was poor at the end of last year and into the start of this, and again dipped in the spring, but has been of a very high standard since the beginning of June.

Consistently long off the tee (20th in distance this year, 17th last, and 20th in his 2020 rookie campaign), he has the right tools for Albatross and it’s only been more putting woe which has kept him from hinting as much via those correlating events in Portugal and Saudi Arabia.

With a seven-shot demolition job to his name here in the Czech Republic, he’s a 40/1 chance I’m really excited about.

Speaking of local connections, JULIEN BRUN‘s career really took off when he moved to Prague with his girlfriend, and he’s now the touring professional for Albatross.

This event will therefore have been circled in the calendar for some time and while he doesn’t have the power of my other selections, that doesn’t mean to say he has nothing in common with past champions. In fact he reminds me quite a bit of Andrea Pavan: wild off the tee at times, but deadly thereafter when at his best.

We’ve seen that in bursts during a solid rookie campaign, Brun having contended in Abu Dhabi (Pieters first), at a big-hitters’ course in South Africa (Arnaus second), and at the aforementioned Green Eagle when he played in the final group. Again, while that course is longer and harder, it does offer some correlation such as through Pulkkanen, who ought to have won this tournament when selected a year ago at 66/1.

Back to Brun and having been 30th in the Irish Open and 27th in the Barbasol Championship, he’s continued to suggest that a rookie win is possible before the year is out, and I can very easily forgive a poor effort in the Barracuda. That’s played on a quirky, fiddly course at high altitude and I’m not at all surprised it found him out.

We’ve not seen him since but whereas Pieters I suspect has had his feet up for a couple of weeks, or rather been engaging in the proper grind of parenting a toddler, Brun will have been at Albatross getting ready for this. You have to assume he believes he’s best arriving here fresh and both of last year’s Challenge Tour wins did come after a short break.

The first of those came in his native France and he’s twice been runner-up in his adopted home at a lower level, so with room here for his occasional waywardness, Brun is worth backing to get to work thereafter.

Frederic Lacroix is the other Frenchman I could have made a serious case for and there’s a less serious one for Robin Roussel, who is playing better than his odds but probably wants a different test. However, it’s VICTOR DUBUISSON who completes the tricolore trio.

Chances are you know the deal here: Dubuisson, a professional golfer whose Instagram page is made up exclusively of pictures taken while fishing at sea, is a law unto himself. He withdrew last time out despite by no means a disastrous start (three players shot worse scores and went on to finish in the top 10) and I’m only half joking when I say I’m more inclined to take the risk when the sea is so far away.

But there are positives, especially in the way he’s hit the ball lately. His irons in particular were excellent for that one round in Wales, they’d been solid in the Hero Open and very good in the Cazoo Classic. His driving has improved, to the point that he might be close to the levels he showed when ranking third in Belgium. He’s gained strokes around the greens five times in eight starts this year, and his putting has also been much better lately.

Like Brun, he has a big Rolex Series performance to his name from back in January but it’s those more recent efforts which catch the eye, with finishes of 11th and 19th before something distracted him at Celtic Manor. There have just been enough hints that he’s taking things seriously and that his game really is at the sort of levels required to contend in a field like this.

And then we have the course. By no means has he lit the place up just yet, but he has made two cuts in two starts, finishing 27th and 39th and both times making a big Friday move. He drove the ball fantastically on his debut here and, whether telling or not, has so far enjoyed these greens. Moreover, it simply looks like a Dubuisson course to me and, as he showed at his peak, he’s very dangerous under those conditions.

The two courses on the schedule Dubuisson most enjoys are Sun City and the Earth Course, which host the final two tournaments of the year. From just eight appearances he’s already done enough to seal his card and while I’m not going to make big claims about the motivation of someone so enigmatic, there are reasons to believe he does have some focus about him, and those two targets could help to sharpen it.

There are ifs and buts galore here, which is what you get with Dubuisson. At 50/1, you also get a huge talent whose recent form marks him down as a potential contender at a course he likes. It’ll do for me.

Green light for course specialist

Red-hot Renato Paratore will do for many at a course where he was fifth as a teenager but he’s been putting the lights out and I’d be wary of that continuing for all it’s historically been a strength. I’d rather chance another course specialist in Tom Lewis at twice the odds, but will split the difference and go with GAVIN GREEN.

Twice the first-round leader here after rounds of 64, and in front at halfway on the first of three visits, Green loves Albatross. He said so himself in 2019, remarking that his power and high ball-flight were hugely beneficial, and it’s therefore a great place to be visiting on the back of second place in a valuable Asian Tour event last week.

Green was unable to kick on following a blistering start there but kept on fighting and we all know he has the ability to win a tournament like this. It’s also fair to say he has all the form I was looking for, not just here having stayed the course to be third in 2018, but in Saudi Arabia where he held firm when battling Dustin Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Phil Mickelson for the title six months later.

I recall putting him up at around the 66/1 mark that week and when golf returned in the summer of 2020, an in-form version of this talented youngster was going off among the favourites in this kind of company. I therefore believe that while of course last week’s effort has forced his price in, bookmakers could and probably should have gone shorter still given his history here and the potential he still carries.

Fifth place earlier this season in Qatar gives us some DP World Tour form but I also like how he’s played over here more recently, driving it well in the Hero Open a week after he’d ranked second in strokes-gained approach in Wales. Piece those two elements together and this dynamite putter could go a long way towards a breakthrough win.

Don’t overlook Aussie at the odds

Alvaro Quiros has lost some of his pop off the tee but might still like it here, while I did look twice at Lee Slattery, one of last week’s selections. He’s the same price here which reflects the fact he has stacks of course form, and I’m told after a good preparation at Galgorm Castle, his tournament got off to a nightmare start when he was stung by a wasp just before teeing off on Thursday.

Slattery went on to keep hitting quality approaches, something he’s done for a while now, but I’m going to scroll past him and stick with the theme to back JAKE MCLEOD at huge odds.

This Aussie, who hits it a good way despite not being the biggest, hasn’t done much so far on the DP World Tour, but there have been flashes of promise and they line up nicely with this.

First of all, he was in terrible form when coming here last summer but fought hard to shoot a second-round 69, make the cut, and secure his best finish of a miserable campaign. Then there’s his sole top 10, which came in the Portugal Masters back in 2019. And finally, he’s played the Saudi International once, and opened with a 65.

Given all that I’ve written, these performances jumped off the page, and then I see he drove it better, continued to hit good approaches, maintained his solid work around the greens and finished 23rd last week, under far less suitable circumstances – he was nowhere near making the cut in the same event last year, and hit it terribly at the same course in 2020 only to save himself somewhat with the putter.

McLeod has in fact only played five DP World Tour events so far in 2022, and as well as the positves last week, he played really well for three of the four rounds of the ISPS Handa Championship won by Arnaus back in April. Between the two there was nothing disastrous in three starts, latterly when missing the cut on the number in Wales, so while totally off the radar, he’s probably playing just fine.

Having started the year in red-hot form back home in Australia, McLeod is better than his rating. Given that we’re at a course I’d say is more likely to play to his strengths than most, he’s a fun bet at huge odds.

Posted at 1800 BST on 15/08/22

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*Amended to remove description of Brun’s partner as Czech – she is from Slovakia, but the couple live in Prague