Derek Carr contract, explained: Why Raiders will likely release QB after failed trade to Saints

Derek Carr, long overdue by the Raiders, will officially be off the franchise’s books in the coming days.

Las Vegas is poised to ditch the ninth-year veteran, who made his fourth Pro Bowl appearance in 2023 (as a substitute). The most pressing question following the Raiders’ decision to part ways with Carr was whether it would trade him or cut him.

It appears to be the latter, as Carr exercised the no-trade clause on his expensive contract extension. That has severely (read, fully) limited Las Vegas’ ability to navigate with other teams that could use an upgrade at quarterback. It seems Carr would rather take a pay cut than lose control of his own destiny as he moves into the next phase of his career.

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The Sporting News breaks down Carr’s contract details and how they were briefed on the upcoming Las Vegas move with the soon-to-be former Raider:

Derek Carr contract details

Carr signed a three-year, $121.5 million contract extension with the Raiders in April 2022 that included a $24.9 million guarantee at signing (a $7.5 million signing bonus and a base salary of $17.4 for the 2022 season). However, the remaining $40.4 million in guarantees that would be paid out during the 2023 and 2024 seasons will not become available until after February 15, 2023 — or if Carr is injured at any point during the 2022 season.

Once it was clear the Raiders were moving away from Carr — they benched him for Jarrett Stidham in the last two games of the season — there was no point in keeping him past that date or risking him getting injured becomes.

Below is his contract expiration, per Spotrac:

Year Annual cash
2022 $24.9 million
2023 $33 million
2024 42 million dollars
2025 $41.3 million

MORE: Derek Carr contract: Raiders QB unwilling to extend Feb. 15 deadline to ease trade

Why Raiders are likely to release Derek Carr

The Raiders would prefer to trade Carr so they get something back for him while also getting another team to take the rest of his contract. Las Vegas certainly doesn’t hurt teams that need a solid upgrade at quarterback either.

However, Carr has enforced his no-trade clause, even telling the Saints he would not accept any trades with the franchise. He also told the Raiders he would not extend the February 15 deadline to help them facilitate a trade.

“I don’t think that would be the best thing for me,” Carr said on February 2.

Even if the Raiders Carr had traded before Wednesday, the deal wouldn’t be official until March 15, meaning a team could walk away from the deal or otherwise attempt to alter the trade arrangements. By forcing the team to cut him — and losing guaranteed money in the process — Carr can instead approach Teams immediately as a free agent, negotiate his own contract, and ensure he transfers to a team that best sets him up for success.

With Carr’s stance cemented just days before Wednesday’s deadline, the Raiders will almost certainly cut him to avoid paying $40.4 million to a player who doesn’t play another significant snap in Las Vegas. By doing so, they also avoid a $34.9 million cap for 2023, good for the ninth-highest spot in the NFL.

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Derek Carr potential landing sites for 2023

Several teams need a quarterback in 2023, including the Saints, who Carr visited before telling them he wouldn’t accept a trade. Here’s an overview of some teams that could potentially compete at Carr:

nozzles

The Jets have said multiple times that they are looking for an experienced quarterback to take over in 2023, not only to lead an offensive unit with a few key figures, but also to mentor former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. However, the Jets are reportedly trying to land Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers — and are still having to overcome their salary cap struggles as they are about $3 million overpaid after Super Bowl Sunday.

Foal

Indianapolis has tried several times in recent years to implant an experienced quarterback in the roster, without success from the likes of Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. Carr would be an upgrade, but it’s possible the Colts, who have the #4 pick in the 2023 NFL draft, might trade for one from Bryce Young or CJ Stroud instead.

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privateer

Tampa Bay is an attractive option for any free-agent quarterback, with two Pro Bowl receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans — not to mention a decent offensive line — all under contract. With Tom Brady really retiring, Carr would not only be the best quarterback in Tampa Bay ahead of Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask, but the entire NFC South.

The Buccaneers are currently $55 million over the cap, according to Spotrac, which means several players on the roster would have to go through contract reshuffles just to have enough money for Carr.

saints

New Orleans is perhaps in the worst position to land a quarterback upgrade in free agency and ranks last in salary caps at minus $57.4 million, according to Spotrac. The team managed to get a (late) first-round pick by selling Sean Payton to the Broncos, but there might not be enough in New Orleans — even with NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year nominee Chris Olave – to interest Carr.

One thing that speaks for New Orleans is coach Dennis Allen, who coached the Raiders when Carr was a rookie in 2014 (he only played four games that season before he was fired). That familiarity could come into play, but New Orleans has plenty of other things to sort out in order to become a potential landing spot for Carr.

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