Final-round preview and best bets for The PLAYERS Championship

Golf Betting Tips: The PLAYER Finals

1pt against Tommy Fleetwood at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1.2)

1 point win Tommy Fleetwood ‘without Big 3’ at 8/1 (bet365)

1pt Two-Ball Acca Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Aaron Rai and Scottie Scheffler at 17/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Skybet Odds | Paddy power | Betfair Sportsbook

Scottie Scheffler is in one of those golden periods of a golf career when everything seems straight forward and easy. So on moving day he does exactly that: move.

Scheffler’s 7-under of Sawgrass on Saturday wasn’t the only low score in round three, but from the position he shot it from — second place — that 65 pretty much spread the field. With 18 points to play, he’s two ahead of Min Woo Lee, four ahead of third-place Cam Davis, and at least five ahead of everyone else.

But if two-time Major winner Collin Morikawa can crush a 54-hole lead in six shots (see January’s Sentry Tournament of Champions), let’s not assume that lone Major winner Scheffler already has the trophy in his hands holds. However, his best rate of 2/5 to get over the line suggests otherwise.

For one thing, he doesn’t have the pounding hooves of Jon Rahm behind him like Morikawa did in Hawaii. If Lee or Davis won this, it would far surpass their previous accomplishments.

Secondly, we could say that Morikawa had rather lost the winning habit after not having a win since the 2021 Open Championship. This is not the same as Scheffler, who has won five times in the last 13 months, most recently just a few weeks ago.

Scheffler converted a three-shot lead to win the 2022 Masters and a two-shot lead to complete his defense in Phoenix last month. He also only made three bogeys this week, the fewest in the field.

But if all about his case looks watertight so far, let’s remember his final 73 at the Tour championship in September, which propelled him from tied first to tied 13th. And how about a Sunday 72 at last year’s Colonial, where he lost a playoff to Sam Burns after starting round four by two shots.

As for this event, rewind to 2019 when a brilliant 64 by Rahm in the third round gave the Spaniard the lead before going 12 strokes higher the next day and finishing in 12th place. Be warned, Scottie, five of the last six 54-hole leaders at TPC Sawgrass have not converted.

But if Scheffler is beatable, who will beat?

Sawgrass’ history suggests that the list of candidates is, shall we say, small. Why? In the last 23 editions, only two players have come from a finals deficit of more than three shots: Henrik Stenson in 2009 and Fred Funk in 2005.

That leaves only Min Woo Lee (two behind) at 6/1 and certainly Scheffler versus Lee is a mismatch. In order to win the 6/1, I want Lee to have the Strokes Gained: Approach stats high because since The PLAYERS have returned to a March slot, the three winners of this event are all in the top six in that category were placed. Lee is ranked 58th so far and was 54th for SG: Approach in round three so some of his play was missed.

Scheffler is 2nd for Approach, the only weakness in his game being a 54 hole ranking of 56th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Perhaps it can afford to be humble considering Justin Thomas (2021) and Rory McIlroy (2019) were 42nd and 45th respectively at the SGP when they won here.

Cam Davis, four in third, is the next cab waiting. He fired a 67 on day three but later said, “I felt like I got pretty much everything I could have that round.” Hmmm. And having never made a cut here on two previous visits: “This weekend is the first for me so I’ll try to make it a really good first run.” To me, those aren’t a winner’s quotes.

So, to find my Scottie hunter, I go to the 9-unders and take TOMMY FLEETWOOD, a man of both Sawgrass pedigree and strong Strokes Gained: Approach numbers. From five visits last year, the Englishman has a fifth, a seventh and another top 25. In the stats he is 8th in SG: Approach for the week.

Fleetwood was 3-over after 6 holes on Thursday, so he was practically the best player of the tournament over the last 48. Looking back on the final lap, he said: “A good top 5 won’t change my life. I’m going to go out and go like I do every week and try to win the tournament.”

Well Tommy, we want a good top 2 or 3 from you now.

If Scheffler wobbles and Lee finds it hard, Fleetwood has a chance to add a first PGA Tour win to his six PGA Tour wins. He most recently came at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in November, where – omens – he started five shots behind the leader, just like Stenson and Funk when they hefted the iconic PLAYERS glass trophy. Yes, he can show weaknesses in the finals, but I’m happier to get him off the pace for a decent price than if he were, say, two up.

So we beat Fleetwood back at 28/1 with bet365 in the outrights on each-way terms of 1/4, 1.2. And I also take him at 8/1 in Betfred’s ‘no Big 3’ market. This is now effectively “without Scheffler” as Rahm and Rory McIlroy missed the cut. Fleetwood has solo seconds at the US Open and Open Championship and that would be fine here if he follows Scheffler home.

Finally, when ball forwards are sorted out at Sawgrass on Sunday, I’ll also have a little two-ball acca pitting players with strong SG: Approach numbers against those who are struggling in that department. So, with current SGA rankings in parentheses, I take it JORDAN SPIETH (10th) vs. Denny McCarthy (68th), JUSTIN ROSE (16th) vs. Taylor Montgomery (63rd), Aaron Rai (14th) against Chad Ramey (71st) and SCHEFLER (2nd) against Lee (58th). It pays 17/2 at Coral/Ladbrokes.

Posted at 1005 GMT on 12/3/23