Gameweek 23 scorelines according to expected goals

• We attempt to rank each game outcome by comparing the actual outcome to the range of possible outcomes that could occur given the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, with 100 representing the occasions where the process comes closest to the actual outcome, and lower scores indicate a game where the outcome is not fully reflected in the balance of opportunities created.

• Infogol xG: 0.34-3.37
• Fairness rating: 82.74
• Watkins 5′, Coutinho 31′ | sake 16′, Zinchenko 61′, Martinez OG 90+3′, Martinelli 90+8′

Arsenal needed two stoppage-time goals to beat Aston Villa and deservedly return to the top of the Premier League table.

The Gunners were trailing with inferior chances at the break after a first half (xG: AVL 0.23-0.12ARS) Ollie Watkins and Philippe Coutinho found both ends of a Bukayo Saka equaliser.

After Oleksandr Zinchenko fired in from the edge of the box just after the hour, Arsenal were pushing for a winner, but their best chance was uncharacteristically denied in the 77th minute by Martin Odegaard (0.35) with an open goal from 12 meters out.

But just as time seemed to be running out, a 25-yard shot from Jorginho shot off the crossbar and into the back of former Arsenal player Emiliano Martinez’s head.

Gabriel Martinelli then broke away to tap into an empty goal after the Villa keeper went up for a late corner.

Vitaly Janelt snatched a dramatic injury-time equalizer from Brentford against Crystal Palace to extend his unbeaten run to 11 games.

Palace were close to their first win in 2023 after substitute Eberechi Eze put them ahead.

Eze’s goal was his fourth of the season and just the shot-shy Palace’s 21st in 23 Premier League games.

The crowd also successfully captivated Bees sniper Ivan Toney, while Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen stood firm as a rock.

But in the sixth minute of added time, another substitute Janelt scored to draw the top-class hosts 1-1.

Substitute Manor Solomon returned to pursue former boss Roberto De Zerbi as Fulham secured a dramatic 1-0 Premier League win over fellow high-flyers Brighton.

Israel international Solomon, who played under De Zerbi at Shakhtar Donetsk, scored with two minutes remaining at the Amex Stadium after Albion dominated.

Solly March and Facundo Buonanotte were disallowed for the Seagulls, who, despite 21 tries, failed to score in the top flight for the first time since October.

Fulham, without star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic due to a minor injury, struggled for most of the afternoon to find their feet in the game before the late turn boosted their hopes of European qualification at the expense of their hosts.

Loanee Solomon’s second goal in as many games puts Marco Silva’s side ahead of Brighton in sixth place despite playing two games more.

Chelsea’s season sank to a new and alarming low as they were beaten 1-0 at Stamford Bridge by Premier League bottom-placed Southampton.

A James Ward-Prowse free-kick converted just before half-time put the Saints captain a goal behind David Beckham in the all-time standings of the competition and sent Graham Potter’s side to a fourth straight game without a win in the league.

With five of the club’s eight January signings in the starting XI, Potter saw his team work to find an invention against a Saints side set up by interim boss Ruben Selles to frustrate the hosts’ expensively assembled attacking cavalry. Winning their first match since Nathan Jones was fired was all they deserved.

Chelsea have scored just once at home in 2023 and the lack of a recognized striker was once again painfully evident.

Seamus Coleman’s insane goal was the stroke of luck Everton needed to lift them out of the relegation zone and plunging managerless Leeds there after their 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park.

New manager Sean Dyche knew he would need some luck after the Premier League’s worst scorers were not signed in January, despite injury-prone striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin struggling with his fitness all season.

But even he could not have imagined winning his second straight home game like that after the Toffees captain’s attempted cross caught goalkeeper Ilan Meslier at his near post.

Everton’s longtime Irishman is the club’s talisman as they have never lost in all 28 games he has scored in and if they can continue to pick up wins at home like this – which put them a point clear of the last three – then that’s it Survival well a realistic possibility.

The same cannot be said for Leeds, whose 10th game without a win dropped them to 19th after fellow contenders Southampton and Bournemouth both won.

Nottingham Forest delivered another twist in the Premier League title race as Chris Wood’s late goal secured a 1-1 draw against Manchester City at the City Ground.

City looked to return to the top of the table after Arsenal’s win over Aston Villa at lunchtime when they took the lead through Bernardo Silva’s first-half stunner.

But a series of missed chances after the break, including two from Erling Haaland, proved costly and Wood’s first goal for Forest in the 83rd minute earned them a point.

The tie, which should have been off the table for the hosts, means the Gunners are now two points clear of City at the top of the table with a game in hand.

How big those two points lost in the title race will be remains to be seen, but Pep Guardiola will be sick that the game didn’t finish.

Marcus Tavernier marked his return from injury with a thigh winner as Bournemouth secured an important 1-0 win over Wolves in their relegation battle.

The midfielder, who started for the first time since November, curled in a Dominic Solanke cross in the 49th minute at Molineux to end the cherries’ long run without a win.

It was the south coast club’s first league win since the World Cup break and their first since Gary O’Neil was confirmed as full-time manager in November.

Tavernier’s goal was also just her third of that period and while it was an element of luck there was no denying its value.

Up until then, Wolves, who were aiming for a third straight win, had been the better side but while the fight was open there was a distinct lack of quality in front of goal.

Nick Pope’s Carabao Cup final dream went up in smoke as Liverpool rejoined the top four with a 2-0 win at Newcastle.

The England goalkeeper was sent off after 22 minutes in a vibrant Premier League game at St James’ Park for handling outside his box and will be suspended for Sunday’s clash with Manchester United at Wembley.

With Martin Dubravka already playing for United in the competition while on loan earlier this season and Karl Darlow on loan at Hull, former Liverpool goalkeeper Loris Karius is likely to make a debut he could not have expected.

However, the Magpies’ hopes of extending their unbeaten league run to a club record 18 games were mortally wounded in just the first 17 minutes by goals from visiting Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo – the only side to beat Newcastle in the league that season – ruthlessly used the spaces behind central defenders Fabian Schar and Sven Botman to win 2-0.