Heat vs. Knicks Game 1 odds, picks, predictions, & props
The 8th-place Heat will travel to Madison Square Garden on Sunday to play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at 1:00 p.m. ET (ABC) against the 5th-place Knicks. Miami upset the first-ranked Bucks in the first round while the Knicks defeated the fourth-ranked Cavaliers in five games.
During the regular season, the Knicks won three of four games from the Heat. New York is hoping this bodes well as they will play Miami in the playoffs for the first time since 2000. Meanwhile, the Heat are in the second round for the second straight season and the third time in the last four seasons. Jimmy Butler had a great first round against the Bucks and will need similar performances for Miami to return to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Nonetheless, the Knicks are the betting favorites (-160) to win this series, but the veteran-led Heat won’t be phased right now and be prepared for anything Jalen Brunson and co. throw at them.
Can Butler lead the Heat to another surprise Game 1 win, or will Brunson and the Knicks put on a show at MSG? Below we will break down Sunday’s Heat-Knicks matchup and provide our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Heat vs. Knicks odds, tips, predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
- spread: Heat +4.5 (-115); Knicks -4.5 (-105)
- About Below: OVER 207.5 (-110); BELOW 207.5 (-110)
- money line: Heat +155; Knicks -190
The Knicks go into tomorrow’s Game 1 at Madison Square Garden as a 4.5-point favorite. New York played well at home in the first round, winning both games by 20 and nine points over the Cavs. In that sense, the Knicks were a good home team during the regular season (23-18). That success has translated to the betting, with New York seen as home favorites at 22-20-1 against the spread at MSG (postseason included) and 17-15 ATS.
If the Knicks are to get Game 1 out of the upset Heat, they need to defend the three-point line. We’ve seen the Heat shoot 45 percent from deep (best in the NBA playoffs), which is a notable difference from the regular season (34.4 percent – 27th place in the NBA). New York let the Cavaliers shoot from beyond the arc 32.7 percent in the first round and finished the regular season with 12th-best three-point defense (35.7 percent).
The Heat will do everything in their power to contain Brunson at the perimeter, so Julius Randle needs to win his matchup. In the final round, Randle was averaging 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game after missing some time with a sprained left ankle. He aggravated the injury again in Game 5 and it’s doubtful he’ll play on Sunday. If Randle can’t go, the Knicks will have to take offense from elsewhere – Josh Hart, RJ Barrett, etc.
Meanwhile, the Heat are looking to topple another frontrunner to return to the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami relied on Butler, who put in a historic 56-point performance in Game 4 and went on to win the series with 45 points in Game 5. Butler can’t do it alone, however, as he’ll need Bam Adebayo (20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists) to step up like he did in Game 5 and be present at the low post. Adebayo is listed as doubtful with a thigh strain but it would be shocking not to see him play on Sunday.
The Heat are 18-25 ATS on the road and 10-11 as street dogs this season (including the postseason) but we just saw them defy the odds in Round 1. Can Miami Steal Game 1? Without doubt. However, we believe the Knicks will win and set the tone on Sunday afternoon.
Forecast: Knicks 102, Heat 96. The Knicks (-4.5) Cover the spread while the game is in progress UNDER the sum (207.5)
Best Player Prop Bet for Heat vs. Knicks: Jalen Brunson OVER 5.5 Assists (-115)
If the Knicks want to win Game 1 on Sunday afternoon, they need Brunson to be a goalscorer and involve other players. In the first round against the Cavs, Brunson averaged 4.8 assists per game, which is below his season average (6.2). However, the former Villanova standout dished out more than 5.5 assists in three of the five game series (two at home).
Brunson was successful against the Heat in the regular season, handing out 5.7 assists per game. The Heat allowed PGs the 8th fewest assists per game this season, but that won’t deter us since Brunson is the Knicks’ primary ball handler.