Heat vs. Knicks Game 4 odds, picks, predictions, & props
The eighth-seeded Heat (-4.5) is looking to take a comfortable 3-1 lead against the fifth-seeded Knicks in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference semifinals game Monday night (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT). After the Heat failed to lose 111-105 in Game 2 at Madison Square Garden without Jimmy Butler, Butler’s return helped Miami to an impressive 105-86 win in Game 3. Despite having the worst offense this postseason (109.4 offensive rating ) Miami prevailed on the defensive end, holding New York on a lackluster 88.7 offensive rating.
Butler (ankle) led all scorers on Saturday afternoon (28 points, nine of 21 FG) but again sprained his ankle in the second half. He was able to return and while he’s officially listed as ‘questionable’ ahead of Game 4, watch out for the Superstar wing in full swing tonight. Although Miami shot just 34.1 percent from the field, Max Strus (seven of 14 FG) and Bam Adebayo (17 points, seven of 14 shooting) managed to get their places against the Knicks defense.
The Knicks’ offense couldn’t do much, shooting 20 percent from deep (eight of 40) while not reversing the basketball enough to emphasize the Heat’s rotational defense. New York’s half-field offense was just as stunning, and while they’ve done a decent enough job defensively, 86 points just won’t cut it. In addition to Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson, who were struggling with ankle injuries themselves, substitute Immanuel Quickley injured his ankle in the fourth quarter, preventing him from returning.
Can the Heat keep up their sensational postseason game, or will the Knicks equalize this best-of-seven? Below we’ll break down tonight’s Heat Knicks matchup and give our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Heat vs. Knicks odds, tips, predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
- spread: Heat -4.5 (-105); Curtsy +4.5 (-115)
- About Below: OVER 208.5 (-105); BELOW 208.5 (-115)
- money line: Heat -190; Curtsy +155
A deadly team against the spread during its postseason run, Miami had an elite coverage rate of 87.5 percent (7-1 ATS). After finishing as a four-point favorite in Game 3, it’s no surprise that the Butler-led Heat sits as a 4.5-point favorite after a 19-point win. However, the betting market still respects the Knicks enough not to adjust that spread too much after a 19 loss, and while Tom Thibodeau finds himself in a 2-1 hole, there’s plenty of time for Tom Thibodeau’s group to turn things around.
It starts with running a better offense on half court and not settling for shots in possession like Saturday morning. It’s probably in the Knicks’ best interest not to lift 40 threes in Game 4 considering they shot just 35.4 percent from deep in the regular season (19th), but against a Heat defense, who have been strong in their defensive rotations, they might not have many better options.
Given how connected the Heat looked in the postseason, it’s hard to fade them now. It didn’t really matter who was on the floor as every rotation player played their part. Miami’s bench has the best net rating this postseason (5.9), while the Knicks’ bench has a -0.3 net rating in their eight playoff games.
We expect both offenses to be more efficient tonight, but we still believe Miami’s ability to run a better offense and get to their spots consistently will result in another win and cover for the sweltering heat.
Forecast: Heat 107, Knicks 102. The Heat (-4.5) Cover the spread while the game is in progress ABOVE the sum (208.5)
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Best Player Prop Bet for Heat vs. Knicks: Max Strus OVER 2.5 scored three points (-120)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
With the Knicks likely to continue sending doubles teams towards the Butlers, we’d like Strus to splash three-plus-three tonight. Strus didn’t have his best three-pointer throwing night in Game 3, but did make three of his 10 attempts from distance. We think the DePaul product will hit three plus three for the third straight year in a performance that should bounce back from both offenses.