Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 odds, picks, predictions, & props
The Nuggets will try to put the finishing touches on a great season Monday night as they prepare to face the Heat in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Denver is one win away from winning its first NBA title in franchise history after beating Miami 108-95 in Game 4 on Friday night.
After the Nuggets comfortably won Game 3, they knew the Heat would not budge outside their home stadium on Friday night for what might be the last time this season. However, Denver didn’t give up and put in an incredible performance from veteran power forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon posted a playoff-high 27 points (game high) on efficient 11-of-15 shots from the field and 3-of-4 from deep. He also grabbed seven rebounds and dished out six assists. Denver also scored a great performance from Bruce Brown, who scored 21 points. With Gordon and Brown going berserk, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were able to take a back seat. Jokic had a double-double consisting of 23 points and 12 rebounds while Murray had 15 points and 12 assists. Murray has now had ten or more assists in four straight games and will be aiming for five assists Monday night.
On the Heat, Jimmy Butler (25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists) and Bam Adebayo (20 points and 11 rebounds) had solid performances in their third straight game. Miami also received an additional point boost from Kevin Love, who scored 12 points (4-6 FG, 3-5 3pt) in 18 minutes. However, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent’s backcourt struggled with the home loss, scoring two points together at 1-of-10 from the field and 0-of-7 from three-point range. For the Heat to force a Game 6, Vincent and Strus will need to play better as the Nuggets are well-oiled machines on offense.
Will the Heat win their second away game of the series, or will the Nuggets finish the game on Monday and walk away as NBA champions? Below, we’ll break down Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and the Nuggets, along with our prediction and best bets on player props.
Odds, Tips and Predictions for Heat vs Nuggets Game 5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an NBA Authorized Gaming Operator. Click here to login
- spread: Heat +8.5 (-105); Nuggets -8.5 (-115)
- In total: OVER 208.5 (-110); OVER 208.5 (-110)
- money line: heat +310; Nuggets -400
The Nuggets go into Game 5 by 8.5 points after being brief away favorites in Games 3 and 4 in South Beach. Denver suffered their only home playoff loss this postseason in Game 2, where Miami was an 8.5-point underdog. Aside from that loss, the Nuggets lead 9-1 at home and 6-4 against the team in the NBA playoffs.
However, we shouldn’t expect Monday’s game to be a cakewalk as the Heat know they can keep up with the Nuggets. In this year’s NBA playoffs, Miami is ahead 7-5 away and 8-4 against the table. This team is not afraid to be the underdog and has shown in the post-season that they can win away from home.
For the Heat to win Monday night, they need to defend the three-point line better. In Game 3, Miami held Denver to 27.4 percent from the deep, which was good enough to win if they slowed down the Jokic-Murray combination. Fast forward to Friday night, and Miami’s defensive principles went haywire as the Nuggets shot 50 percent from long range. It doesn’t matter what Butler and Adebayo do if nobody can defend the three-point line.
On the other hand, Miami did an exceptional job winning the fight at the glass and being competitive on the fast break points. However, the Heat had 15 turnovers, resulting in 17 points for Denver, which is a quick way to lose. If the Heat can defend the three-point line and get a better production from Strus-Vincent, they could steal Game 5. We know Butler and Adebayo will appear in a must-win game, but who will emerge as number 1 alongside them? . 3 and 4 scorers? This question remains and will be answered quickly on Monday evening.
As for the Nuggets, they have a -5000 lead on winning the NBA Finals as they have a comfortable 3-1 lead in the series. Denver didn’t need their stars to lead the way Friday night, but Murray and Jokic still made the necessary plays and hit shots in time. We can count on Murray and Jokic to do well on Monday night as they look to KO the Heat early.
In addition to playing the starting lineup in Games 3 and 4, the bench also showed up and provided an additional attacking boost in Denver. Rookie Christian Braun had his breakout game with 15 points and four rebounds in Game 3, while Bruce Brown had 21 points (8-11 FG, 3-5 3pt), four rebounds and two assists in Game 4. If Brown or Braun can After repeating their performances Monday night in Miami, the Nuggets are on their way to an NBA title.
The Heat won’t back down in a win-or-go home situation as they are 8-4 ATS this season when the spread was between +7.5 and +10.5. However, the Nuggets have too much firepower when everyone is in overdrive and have been an excellent team at home. Winning a final game is tough in any sport, but the Nuggets are 3-0 in finals this postseason and winning by 3.3 points a game.
Forecast: Nuggets 107, heat 103. The heat (+8.5) Cover the spread with the game BELOW the total (208.5).
Best BetMGM Player Prop Bet for Heat vs Nuggets Game 5: Jimmy Butler OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+100)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an NBA Authorized Gaming Operator. Click here to login
The easy bet for Jimmy Buckets would be to win the OVER on Monday night with his points. However, we will examine his rebound prop – O/U 6.5 on BetMGM. Butler picked up seven rebounds in Friday’s loss, a noticeable improvement over Games 2 and 3 where he had six rebounds total.
The 33-year-old small forward has OVER 6.5 rebounds twice this streak, which bodes well for the start of a crucial Game 5. For the Heat to claim victory on Monday night, they must influence Butler in a variety of ways. Butler has averaged six rebounds per game and 13 rebound chances in his last six away games.