How can it be that a balloon is the latest weapon of great powers?

A new threat now threatens the warring factions of the world. Who would have thought balloons would cause such a riot? But think about it. Almost every country or terrorist group should be able to launch a balloon.

On the weapons spectrum, balloons are at the opposite end of the spectrum from nuclear weapons and missiles. South Korea’s defense ministry just put North Korea back in its place as an “enemy” in its annual white paper. That reflects the dangers posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles, not balloons or drones. The South’s conservative President, President Yoon Suk-yeol, reversed the policies of outgoing President Moon Jae-in, who said it wasn’t a good idea to call North Korea an “enemy” while seeking reconciliation.

That search was in vain, of course, given North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s refusal to see Moon after the collapse of the Hanoi summit four years ago between Kim and Donald Trump, which insisted the North must abandon its nuclear program. He had foolishly expected it after meeting Kim in Singapore last June. Now President Biden, whatever he thinks of Trump, is making the same demand. All that has changed is that South Korea under Yoon not only pushes denuclearization much more strongly than Moon, but also advocates joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States – in contrast to Moon, who had advocated war games only on computers.

Amid worries about nuclear weapons and missiles, worries about balloons could be a welcome relief. On the other hand, while they may appear relatively harmless, appearances can be deceptive. Balloon-carried instruments can do more than spy on bases and people below. They can also carry bombs to be dropped when instructed by their navigators thousands of miles away. Drones can do the same but make a lot more noise; They carry a lot more gear and are a lot easier to spot.

It’s hard to believe that with such seemingly simple devices, Americans are just catching up. How is it that a Chinese spy balloon circling tens of thousands of meters above the surface of the earth turns out to be the newest weapon in the great powers’ inventory?

It’s not just the Chinese who are bringing them to market, either. It turns out the US played with them too. Expect a number of other nations to join in, discovering the ease with which balloons can rise out of sight of high-tech devices. Discerning stargazers can see everything up there, from low-flying satellites to spy planes penetrating air defense identification zones, but balloons may have inexplicably slipped under the radar.

The balloon phenomenon has immediate significance for the defense of all countries, especially South Korea. North Korea has launched a series of drones over the south. Some made it back north and others crashed. Consider what the North Koreans can do when tempted to wage a balloon war against the South. Shouldn’t the Chinese be expected to launch balloons over other countries, including North and South Korea? And why shouldn’t South Korea send some balloons over the North?

Come to think of it, defectors from North Korea have been firing balloons at North Korea just below the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas for years. They are full of propaganda pamphlets exposing the Kim Dynasty and other news and views that North Koreans never see or hear. Kim Jong Un’s sister Yo Jong has bitterly denounced them, suggesting that some of them are reaching their intended audience.

The South Korean authorities have regularly cracked down on activists for their leafleting campaign, but it’s easy to imagine the South and North actually engaging in balloon warfare and beginning to use them for intelligence gathering. Imagine the challenge a balloon campaign would pose for the Southern Air Force as they chase balloons like crazy all the way to the DMZ.

However, they would have to recognize them first, and that won’t be easy. Not long ago, fighter jets and helicopters failed to intercept a flight of North Korean drones over the south. Reconnaissance balloons might be even more difficult, especially when rising thousands of feet into the sky.

Right now, American intelligence needs to figure out how the Chinese balloons worked, how much material they sent back to operators in China, how they controlled their flight patterns, and how valuable they really were as weapons in a new Cold War that could get hot anytime .

We’re not even sure if US Navy divers off the coast of South Carolina recovered the tiny working parts that are key to the success of the first balloon launched by a missile launched from a US Air Force plane became. All we know is that the Chinese had been running the balloon program for several years before the Americans started catching up on what they were doing.

Primary responsibility for finding the balloons over North America rests with NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Incredibly, while NORAD might be expected to be able to track the flight of any aircraft approaching the United States and Canada, it was made flat-footed by the appearance of the giant balloon that was eventually spotted high over Montana caught.

NORAD physicists, engineers and technicians can “hear” a North Korean nuclear test whenever Kim wants to test one. They’ve been waiting for him for months to order the North’s seventh underground nuclear warhead, but nothing seems to have prepared NORAD for the shock of the Chinese balloons. While the focus was on nuclear weapons and missiles, no one imagined that devices as relatively simple as balloons could attract the attention of statesmen, national leaders, generals, and envoys. Call it China’s once secret weapon.

Balloons are more than just headline stuff of the day. In a war for wits and nerves, and strength and power, it is wise to expect the unexpected, including hot air blasting in from China.

Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years and has focused much of his career on conflicts in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and the Chicago Tribune. He is currently a freelance correspondent for North and South Korea. He is the author of several books on Asian affairs.