How Liverpool can beat Manchester United in the Premier League on Super Sunday

That was the narrative that preceded most Liverpool games this season, but Sunday’s upcoming clash with Manchester United is a must if the Reds are to keep their top-four hopes alive.

Anfield is the destination for the Clash of Titans, with both teams having everything it takes. The hosts know that a win will reduce United’s lead to just seven points in their quest for games Champions League football next semester.

At the same time, visitors can put themselves in a superior position by claiming maximum points on enemy territory. If results go their way, they could end the weekend with a game in hand, seven points ahead of Spurs in fourth place.

Defense of the Reds on the rise

Liverpool are going a little under the radar in this game. Jurgen Klopp’s side have kept four straight league clean sheets since losing 3-0 to Wolves in early February. Since then, the Reds have racked up 2-0 victories over Everton, Newcastle United and Wolves while also clinching a point at Selhurst Park.

The 5-2 defeat by Real Madrid distorts the perception of that period, but the truth is that the 2019/20 Premier League champions have seemed much more secure in recent weeks.

Admittedly it’s not the largest sample size, but Liverpool’s expected goals (xGA) average over those four Premier League games was just 1.05, while expected goals (xGF) average was 2.12.

In short, they made good progress and were able to limit the opponent. Ideally, the xGA average would be slightly lower, but since it’s a small sample size, the numbers from the bizarre Newcastle game have a significant impact.

Everton, Crystal Palace and Wolves all failed to exceed 1.0 xG in their respective games against the Reds.

It wasn’t a defensive disaster class against Real Madrid either. The reigning European champions were simply ruthless, scoring five times from chances equivalent to 1.59 xG, with Infogol calculating just a 2.3% chance the Spaniards were shooting given their chances in the quintet. In comparison, Liverpool’s xGF was 2.21.

United on one roll

Manchester United, on the other hand, go into this game confident and in top form.

United have lost just two of their last 32 games in all competitions. Since losing 6-3 to neighbors Manchester City in October, the Red Devils have won 11 of their 17 Premier League games and lost just two.

Aston Villa celebrated an easily unearned 3-1 win in November, while Arsenal clinched a deserved last-minute winner in January when the two old rivals met.

Erik Ten Hag’s side are just 11 points off the top of the table with a game in hand.

Defensive weaknesses for Red Devils obvious

The headlines are looking incredible for the Red Devils, but there’s a lot more happening. For example, they have conceded their first goal in four of the last seven games in all competitions. As Liverpool showed late last season and early this season, once you get used to the habit, it’s difficult to break from that.

Even in the games where they didn’t concede first, David De Gea was over-relyed on between the sticks. The Spaniard single-handedly kept United in the game against Leicester City in the opening 30 minutes before driving Ten Hag’s side to victory.

This is also supported by the numbers. In their last five Premier League games, the Red Devils have conceded an average of 1.85 xGA per game while generating an average of 2.03 xGF per game. They are by no means impenetrable and Liverpool should be carried away.

Klopp is unlikely to make such a drastic change to his system ahead of this game, but it’s worth noting that he has the players available to play a 4-4-2 again. It was a tactic he successfully used to frustrate Manchester City in their 1-0 win against them earlier this season.

Klopp can use the blueprint for defeating City

The system may differ slightly, with Liverpool using a 4-3-3 on paper, but the approach could be almost identical. Against the Premier League champions, the Reds tended to rely on middle block press. They sat a little lower and tried to counterattack the guests with quick changes in defence. With possession, Klopp’s side would keep the ball in their half, lure City forward and then try to go straight.

An example of the latter can be seen below.

City are pretty aggressive with their press and commit five bodies up front. Despite the pressure, the Reds retain possession and eventually Thiago passes the ball back to Virgil Van Dijk.

The Dutchman quickly makes a big move to join James Milner on Liverpool’s right and the hosts have bypassed the City press and are taking on their defence.

You can see the space between City’s defense and their midfield. You can also see how many bodies Liverpool have in this space to build an attack from a good area.

Direct play could be the key

A similar approach against United could prove successful. The Red Devils have struggled against direct, aggressive teams in recent games.

Leeds scored within a minute after Tyler Adams got up and pressured Bruno Fernandes straight down the home side’s half. Leeds then signed five players to attack and Wilfried Gnonto fired the ball past De Gea.

Leicester had a number of chances after dispossessing United in the middle third before breaking with numbers.

This type of style is the pinnacle of Liverpool under Klopp. They are still ruthless if they can be patient before pouncing.

When there’s room to attack, the Reds are still one of the best in Europe when it comes to ruthlessly taking counterattacking opportunities. If they play that right there will be room to attack on Sunday.