How to attack Dern vs. Yan main event
We’re less than a month away from one of the most anticipated pay-per-view lineups of the year. At UFC 280, Charles Oliveira meets Islam Makhachev for the lightweight championship in a stacked card featuring Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley and rising welterweight Sean Brady. Until then, we have a few fight nights at the UFC Apex to keep us busy and another rare week off following this Saturday’s card. Oddly enough, it feels like we’re right in the middle of what the UFC’s closest thing to a slow season is. Still, there are fights and bets to be made this weekend.
UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan may not have household names, but there are plenty of stylistic matchups to keep bettors intrigued. The main event is the perfect example. Almost every UFC map features a forward/submission specialist pairing at some level. The handicap depends on the fighters’ ability to force the fight to where it is most advantageous to them. I’ll explain why I see value in the underdog in the Main Event and a solid parlay option which I closed at +103 odds at BetMGM.
Mackenzie Dern (-250) vs. Xiaonan Yan (+195)
Dern scores a narrow decision win over Tecia Torres, capping a recent 5-1 run in the UFC. Yan has lost her last two after starting her UFC career with six straight wins. With Dern in fifth and Yan in sixth place in the strawweight division, the winner goes into contention for the No. 1 spot in early 2023.
Dern’s improvement continues to be impressive, but her punching power is still well below average. Yan, on the other hand, is a polished forward with crisp boxing whose leg strikes should be watched early on. If she manages to keep Dern on the defensive at a distance, every second that both women stand and act is a huge win for Yan. After the first few minutes, you’ll see Dern trying to tie himself down in a wrestling match and finding ways to get close enough to drag Yan to the mat. Your success in doing so will decide the battle.
Yan’s takedown defense has been exploited in previous losses. That’s one of the reasons Dern is such a big favorite. She’s an elite grappler and a Brazilian jui-jitsu black belt who’s relentless in submitting as soon as she gets you on the mat. It will be a challenge for Yan to muster the discipline to sustain this fight, especially for five rounds in the smaller cage at the apex. But she can.
More importantly, the probability that she does is higher than the 33.9% implied probability that the odds give her. In fact, the onus is on Dern to bring the fight to the ground. I don’t know how much Yan’s takedown defense has improved since losing to Carla Esparza, but she has the weapons to implement a game plan to keep her opponent at a distance for most of the fight. It may not excite the crowd, but we could see plenty of circling and point battles as Yan carefully chooses her points to slip into the bag and rack up points for the judges. One of the loopholes in Dern’s game is that she doesn’t have the strong wrestling that allows fighters to force the fight to the ground. When Dern gets sloppy on her entries in the later rounds, Yan has the cardio and clean enough combinations to punish her.
There’s certainly a good chance Yan’s night will end with him succumbing to one of Dern’s submissions, but at this price point, the value is on the underdog. When BetMGM opens the Prop Markets, both Dern by Submission and Yan via Decision are worth checking out. They are the most likely results of the struggle. However, most of my bet will be on the Yan money line. The +195 odds are good enough to bet on Yan’s ability to avoid danger and get us to the window with a winning ticket.
Parlay: Randy Brown & John Castaneda (+103)
“Rude Boy” Randy Brown should be able to improve on Francisco Trinaldo from the outside by combining his speed with his eight-inch range advantage. Trinaldo has always been a tough hit. The 44-year-old hasn’t been stopped in the Octagon for over five years, but it’s hard to bridge the 12-year age gap between these fighters. Brown has won three straight and has a pretty clear path to a decisive win by keeping that within reach.
Pairing him with Castaneda increases the chance of pairing to +103. In this duel against Daniel Santos, Castaneda will be the more active fighter. His heavy cardio fuels his ability to pressure his opponent and I see him using his wrestling and winning rounds with a heavy top game while Santos spends too much time working in his own cover.
Statistics provided by ufcstats.com.