How to beat India – CricViz

A data-driven strategic guide on how to beat India.

India hits hard; aim above average

India has had an abundance of hitting riches for some time, but it’s only since Rahul Dravid and Rohit Sharma took control of this team that they have started to fully utilize the resources at their disposal and India is clearly a “hit” team now . This imbalance was exacerbated by the injury to world number one bowler Jasprit Bumrah, tipping the scales further in favor of India’s strikers. Teams playing against India should factor this into their assessment of what they need when batting first and try to get above average overall results.

Choose to pursue

No full member team has a greater hunting preference than India. Since the beginning of 2018, they’ve won 80% of matches in chasing — the highest percentage of any team in the world, but just 57% in batting. The 23% difference between these two is the largest of any team, suggesting that winning the draw and bringing India into the game is a clear tactical path.

Recognize the balance of India’s attack

Losing Bumrah is clearly a major blow to India’s chances in the tournament. It not only robs her of the best pace in the world, but also has a significant impact on her phasing and role coverage in her attack, as Bumrah – as a 140kph Death Bowler – single-handedly handled high pace and death bowling. Now that Bumrah is absent, it will be more difficult for India to cover a bowling attack with all abilities, likely leaving them unprotected for at least one phase of the game. Realizing what this stage is can help teams formulate their hitting strategy and how and when to attack hardest. For example, if one of Arshdeep Singh or Harshal Patel is out, India could easily find death, or if Mohammad Shami is out, they rely on Hardik to play the role of the fast fast.

Choose Lefty to counter Axar

Axar Patel is likely to be India’s fifth bowler on India’s default team, while Hardik will provide sixth bowler coverage. Teams with a number of left-handers are likely to complicate Axar’s efforts: this happened in the third T20 against South Africa at Indore and saw Axar score just one rollover and this clash will be repeated at the World Cup. Axar’s economy rate against lefties is 8.39, well above his 6.50 against righties.

Against left-handed South Africa it will be interesting to see if India leaves out Axar or Yuzvendra Chahal for Ravi Ashwin or Deepak Hooda. Although Axar’s place on the team might be protected by his value as a left-handed hitter.

Pakistan’s percussion is very right-leaning and will count on one of Shan Masood and Fakhar Zaman to counter Axar and could see Mohamamd Nawaz help as well. However, left-handers should be wary of Axar: while he’s expensive, he has a healthy hit rate against them.

Take on Chahal

When playing, Chahal is the key to unlocking India’s Attack. In games India has lost since early 2021, Chahal’s economic rate is a staggering 10.94 – higher than regular death bowlers like Harshal. Not only is Chahal’s recent form mixed, but taking him down robs India of flexibility in their bowlers and could force them to throw the finger spinner, even to an awkward match-up. Pakistan are particularly defensive against spin, but the recent promotions of Mohammad Nawaz and Shadab Khan could help them attack the leg spinner. South Africa with an abundance of left-handers should be in a better position to take on him.

Left pace on the power play

India’s top 3 Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul and Virat Kohli should be far better suited to the conditions in Australia – where pace and bounce thrive – than in the UAE, where pitches are slower and lower. Regardless of the venue, however, the left-arm pace remains a good match-up against all three racquets who, to varying degrees and at different times, have struggled with wicket angle, particularly when coupled with lateral movement.

Winning India’s batting power play is crucial

As of the start of 2021, no team in the world has had a greater difference between their winning (54.93) and losing (19.66) power play batting averages than India. Against India, taking early wickets and drying up runs is paramount – teams can’t afford to give them a good start because it not only sets them back in the game, but the mid- and death-overs as well prepared for India’s deep, varied and dynamic batting lineup. Teams shouldn’t try to survive cheap overs on the power play; Instead, they should bowl their best bowlers and go all-in from the start. Pakistan are well suited for this with their elite pace attack, but South Africa are more challenged in this area and will be looking to Wayne Parnell, who fits the role perfectly, to prove he’s a quality fit.

India is RH-heavy; Avoid bowling off spin

India are likely to choose an almost exclusively right-handed batting order, with all-rounder Axar Patel being the only left-hander. There’s a chance of Rishabh Pant playing, but it seems like Dinesh Karthik is ahead of him in the pecking order. Teams must construct their bowling attacks accordingly. Relying on offspin would be a huge mistake against this team. In fact, since the start of 2021, when India picked more lefties than they’re likely to pick in this tournament, no team has scored against off-spinners faster than India.

On the other hand, the imbalance in India’s batting formation should bring left-arm spin and leg spin into play. Turning left arm in particular is an excellent clash against India’s likely top 6 and Pakistan’s Mohammad Nawaz, South Africa’s Keshav Maharaj and Bangladesh’s Shakib Al Hasan should all have plenty of good games in their group stage clashes. It’s worth noting how bad Pant has been against turning his left arm lately – he may be a left-hander, but he may not be the panacea he initially seems to be.

Hold back spin for DK

Karthik is used by India in a special role as a pacemaker, coming into the game very late and targeting the last few overs of the innings. India have shown a willingness to be flexible with their batting order, promoting left-hander Axar to delay Karthik’s entry point and protect him from rotations. When this happens, teams should consider changing tempo earlier and targeting Axar with it, then holding an over spin for Karthik, who favors tempo on the ball.

Freddie Wilde is the Head of Performance Analysis at CricViz.