How to end Europe’s dependency on Russian gas imports

A team of US researchers has developed a new model they believe can eliminate Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports.

Using a novel energy sector model, Binghamton University experts have developed a new way to help Europe end its dependence on importing Russian natural gas. The breakthrough could be crucial as countries across the continent scramble to secure their energy supplies during such uncertain times caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The study “Europe’s Way Out: Tools to Rapidly Eliminate Russian Natural Gas Imports” was published in joules.

Energetic Effects of the Russian Invasion

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has rattled the energy mix of countries across Europe and exposed the scale of Europe’s Russian gas imports. It is estimated that the European Union imported 155 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas in 2021 – equivalent to 45% of EU gas imports and about 40% of its total gas consumption.

The European Commission’s REPowerEU plan outlines a path for Europe to reduce Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022, and stop imports entirely by 2027. The plan includes four policy levers to achieve this goal in the short term.

They include:

• Expansion of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas from non-Russian sources;
• Reduction of gas demand in heating and industry;
• facilitating gas-fired power generation; and
• Adopt flexible gas storage targets.

To improve these strategies, university researchers have developed a power sector model for Europe and a gas model to analyze several possible ways to achieve full independence from Russian gas.

The team’s research provides insights for building a robust decision under parametric and structural uncertainties, alongside an assessment of low-carbon technologies and the impact of policy scenarios on energy systems.

Turning away from Russian gas

For their study, the researchers modeled European natural gas and electricity systems to analyze the feasibility and potential impact of a near-total embargo on Russian gas imports from October.

The results showed that Europe can shed its dependence on Russian gas by adjusting REPowerEU plans with near-term increases in coal and recalibrated gas storage.

Neha Patankar, Assistant Professor in Binghamton University’s Department of Systems Science and Industrial Engineering, commented, “All successful gas independence paths increase reliance on coal-fired power generation, but reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions due to offsets from reduced gas demand.”

For this strategy to be effective, these measures must be implemented over the next two winters.

Patankar concluded: “Increasing renewable energy, heating electrification and LNG imports will steadily replace current policy levers and sustain Europe’s long-term energy transition.”