How to make sense of player projections
Like it or not, projections influence our decisions in fantasy hockey. When you’re on the clock and choosing between two players, it’s incredibly difficult not to look at the number of goals they’re predicted to score and factor that into our picks.
I think projections are a very valuable tool for fantasy hockey managers when used properly. But many managers tend to go to extremes, either completely overhauling all projections and drawing from the gut, or following projections as if they were pure gospel and the assumptions that went into creating those projections , do not question.
How to navigate these murky waters.
Step 1: Find projections you trust
There are many places where you can find projections online, both paid and free. I make my own skater projections every year, Dom Luczyszyn from The Athletic has built a very robust projection model, Yahoo Sports has built-in projections right in the app and there are many others.
Whether you use one or more of these sources or go a different route, it’s important to find projections that you generally trust to give you a starting point.
Step 2: Understand assumptions
It’s probably an obvious point, but every set of projections is based on some sort of assumptions. Things like predicted time on the ice, most likely linemates, and use of power plays can all have a significant impact on an individual player’s projection, and these assumptions may contradict your beliefs.
Likewise, some projections attempt to predict the number of games each player will play, while others assume a full schedule of 82 games for all players. Either way, you need to understand the differences and how it might affect production in your lineups.
Step 3: Use your own assumptions to analyze projections
If you can rely on your own analysis of a situation or player, you should understand what the projections assume and make adjustments (even if only mentally) for your own analysis. It’s worth going through the projections you plan to use fairly quickly and checking those assumptions if you see any numbers that surprise you.
For example, I personally predicted Sam Bennett for a 30-goal, 66-point season. Baked into those numbers is the assumption that Bennett will see even more Ice Age this year, including an above-average share of the top powerplay unit. If you think there’s no chance of Bennett playing on the Florida PP1, you should subtract my prediction by a decent amount (let’s say 5 goals and 10 points).
Step 4: Consider the range of results
Perhaps the most important thing I’ve learned about projections is that it’s best to no longer treat them as a single number, but rather as a starting point for each player. When you look at a player’s projection, you determine what might be going right for that player and what the results might be. I look at changes in time on the ice, the use of power plays, and the possibility for younger players to take the next step as potential factors that could result in a player exceeding their baseline projection.
On the other hand, we also have to consider what could go wrong for a player. Having a new coach, being in their mid-thirties, or having moved to a new team are potential factors that can cause a player to fall short of expectations. We need to understand both the “lower bound” and the “upper bound” for each player in order to make an informed decision on where to design them.
Step 5: Flipping value over security
Finally, I always preach about putting your head above safety. Boring, safe veterans may seem to fill your roster perfectly, but the reality is that after the first four or five rounds, finding big hits is far more beneficial than avoiding potential busts. There are many players who will show up as viable fantasy assets in our disclaimers this year, but far fewer who will reach such a level that they are legitimate “league winners.”
Timo Meier and Filip Forsberg were two players with that kind of advantage that I drafted big last year, and they were great. In both cases, I figured out what could make them great (more PP and EV time on hold for Meier, staying sane for Forsberg) and drafted them more aggressively than my league peers as a result.
I hope these five steps will influence your opinion on the player predictions you follow and help you identify the players with untapped advantages.
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Nate Groot Nibbelink is the creator of Apples & Gino’s Fantasy Hockey and the originator of the #ZeroG blueprint strategy. You can find him discussing obscure fantasy hockey strategy topics in the Apple’s & Gino’s Discord Server or on Twitter @applesginos.
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