How to play the long term trend accelerating lower

Part 1) Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that benefit from market trends.

In the short term, Verizon decelerate higher. Long term was Verizon accelerate lower. With the long term Since the trend is the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a one week time horizon.

Part 2) Trading idea details

Sell ​​$53,671 from Verizon, take profit at $38.5334 Level with 25.0% quota for a $1,721 to win, hold on at $40.5517 with 50.0% quota for a $1,000 Loss.

The boxplot below outlines the placement of the take profit and stop loss levels of the trade idea, the inter-quartile range of the expected trade outcomes, and the best and worst case scenario for the whiskers.

Scenario Analysis:

There is a 25.0% chance of the Take Profit level trading independently over the 1 week timeframe.

There is a 50.0% chance that the stop-loss level is trading independently over the 1-week timeframe.

There is a 37.5% probability that neither the Stop Loss level nor the Take Profit level will trade independently over the 1 week period.

There is a 12.5% ​​probability that the strategy will succeed if the Take Profit level and the Stop Loss level touch do not touch over the 1w time frame.

Part 3) VZ trend analysis

VZ last price was $39.81. That Long term trend is accelerating down is stronger than the short-term trend, which is slowing to the upside. This trade will go short if the price has been moving down and accelerating in the last 21 days.

pricing

The last mid price today was $39.81.

price changes

In the last 21 days, the price has fallen by -3.72% percent.

Long-term trend analysis:

This trade will be short if the price has moved down and slowed down in the last 21 days.

Over the past 21 days, the price has accelerated by $0.005 per day on average.

Short term trend analysis:

This trade goes short when the last change was higher but slowing down.

In the last session, the price has slowed down by -$0.69.

Part 4) VZ value analysis

In the past 21 days the VZ price 7 days increased and 14 days decreased. For every positive day there were 2.0 negative days. The average return on days when the price has risen is 1.1108%. The average return on days when the price fell is -0.8145%. In the last 21 days, the price has fallen by -3.72% percent. Over the last 21 days, the average return per day has been -0.1771% Percent.

market distress

In the last 21 days, the VZ price has increased by 7 days and decreased by 14 days.

For every positive day there were 2.0 negative days.

The average return on days when the price has risen is 1.1108%.

The average return on days when the price fell is -0.8145%.

Part 5) VZ worst/best case scenario analysis

Within a week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% confident this level will not trade for VZ is $37.6049 and overnight best case scenario is $42.0151 . Levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible. We are 50% confident that $40.5517 and $38.5334 could trade. These values ​​are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within a week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% confident this level will not trade for VZ is $37.6049 and overnight best case scenario is $42.0151 . Levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible.

We are 50% confident that $40.5517 and $38.5334 could trade. These values ​​are within statistical probability.

Probability vs Payout Chart:

This chart plots the percentage payout for holding a position versus the probability of the payout occurring. The red and green columns represent the probability of folding and taking profits and the associated payouts.

The central theses:

• Price today $39.81.

• In the last 21 days, the VZ price has increased by 7 days and decreased by 14 days.

• For every positive day there were 2.0 negative days.

• The average return on days when the price has risen is 1.1108%.

• The average return on days when the price fell is -0.8145%.

• In the last 21 days, the price has fallen by -3.72% percent.

• The average return over the last 21 days per day was -0.1771% percent.

• Over the past 21 days, the price has accelerated on average: $0.005 per day lower.

• In the last session, the price increased by $0.31.

• During the last session, the price increased by 0.7787%.

• During the last session, the price slowed down by -$0.69.