How to Time Your Leaf-Peeping Trip This Fall

Planning a pilgrimage to enjoy the bright autumn leaves gets harder this year.

Months of record-breaking drought in the Northeast have drained trees of water, and in the west, nearly 100 major fires have swept a path of devastation through seven states.

From California to Oklahoma to Maine, the symphony of color that accompanies the arrival of an air snap plays out differently in 2022. But leaf scouts need not despair. Those looking to feast their eyes on fall’s colorful foliage will have plenty to enjoy this year as long as they plan it right.

The effects of climate change

“There is no question that climate change is affecting leaf observation time,” said Dr. Gordon Ober, Professor of Environmental Sciences at Endicott College in Beverly, Mass.

The effects, said Dr. Upper, can be seen in a number of ways: The peak of leaf peeping season comes later and lasts for a shorter period of time.

“Because of the warmer weather, the growing season of deciduous trees in the Northeast and West will be lengthened,” he said. “A few decades ago, leaf peeping peaked earlier in the fall, and now it usually happens later.”

according to dr Warm temperatures above keep some trees green later in the season, repelling the gorgeous crimson and gold colors that leaf scouts love. In other regions, lack of rain prematurely turns others brown.

This year is shaping up to be the fifth warmest year on record. The summer of 2022 brought record-breaking heat worldwide. As mercury rose, water levels dropped dangerously — by August more than a quarter of the contiguous United States was hit by severe to extreme drought, and at the end of September a quarter of the Northeast continued to experience unusually low rainfall.

dr Nicole Davi, who directs the Department of Environmental Sciences at William Paterson University, studies trees and the effects that events like extreme weather have on them. She’s currently conducting fieldwork in the Catskill Mountains of New York and said in many places this year’s viewing season felt like it was over before it even started.

“We’ve had a pretty severe drought this season and that can mute the colors. What I’m seeing in the lower Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey is they’ve dropped the foliage altogether,” she said. “You see how stressed trees have become, and when they’re stressed, you won’t see the same brilliance of color.”

When and where to find colors

The good news is that travelers looking for the best colors can turn to hindsight as a guide.

“This season is expected to largely mirror the 2021 season,” said Alan Reppert, a senior weather forecaster at AccuWeather.

AccuWeather predicts that peak colors in places like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and upstate New York will appear in late, mid to late October this year, rather than the usual late September and first week of October. That was also the trend of the last year.

Leaves are likely to fall earlier than usual in Michigan and northern Minnesota thanks to cold fronts, and AccuWeather also predicts that foliage has already peaked in Minnesota’s Superior National Forest, popular for its colorful foliage.

Leaf scouts in the North East, who may have been hoping the region’s late summer rains would save their season, will be disappointed, Mr Reppert said, because it was too late to undo the damage of a dry midsummer.

“Trees begin to prepare for fall foliage change around July 4th, and rainfall and drought conditions from that point forward are really setting the outlook for fall,” he said.

From Boston to New York City, AccuWeather forecasts that fall foliage will underperform and leaves will fall from the trees early in the season. Colors will likely be muted in the Northeast and Appalachian Mountains, including eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeast New York.

And in parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island, some leaves are already turning brown.

In other parts of the country, however, the outlook — and the colors — will be brighter.

Thanks to a snowy winter and plenty of rain in spring and early summer, a lively spectacle is expected in western Oregon and Washington state by early October. They should peak just before the end of the month.

“Olympic National Park in Washington is one of those places along the West Coast where we’re planning to show off the foliage this year,” said Mr. Reppert.

Heavy rain in the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and valleys of Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi also suggests a strong display of fall colors and a viewing season beginning in mid-October and lasting through early November.

Meanwhile, leaf scouts in California, Nevada, and western New Mexico, where moderate to extreme drought has persisted for the past two years, can expect a shorter season, not peaking until late October, characterized by duller colors, and becoming extinct by early November.

Northern California trees offer more brilliance. However, the wildfire risk in the region means those traveling to see the leaves should monitor weather conditions and exercise caution.

And from Missouri to Illinois to eastern Kentucky, the bright colors will actually last longer than usual, with peak colors lasting beyond the first week of November.

Those areas “had 1 in 1,000 years of flooding in late July and early August that occurred within six days,” Mr. Reppert said. “This increased moisture content will result in states in this region having longer leaf show periods than in previous years.”

And in the eastern Rockies, a summer of monsoon rains is expected to give way to particularly vibrant colors.

“The yellow aspens covering the Colorado highlands are expected to look bright this year,” Mr. Reppert said, although he also noted that due to higher temperatures and longer periods of sunshine, foliage in eastern Colorado will peak a little later. According to a forecast by the Smoky Mountains National Park, this peak will not occur until early November.

Last year, colors in the Rocky Mountains and inner Northwest were disappointingly dull, thanks to widespread drought and extreme heat. This year, after a wet winter, spring and early summer, the forecast is better.

“Bighorn National Forest in northern Wyoming is a popular leaf-lover destination to visit this season,” said Mr. Reppert.

Other Resources

There are several online resources to help leaf scouts plan when and where to visit.

A fall foliage forecast map created by Smoky Mountains National Park allows users to check color projections weekly between September 5 and November 21 across the country.

Travelers to New England can consult the New England Fall Foliage 2022 Forecast, produced by New England Today, and travelers with smartphones can download the Gaia GPS app, produced by Outside Online, to review live satellite imagery of foliage and plan their visits accordingly to plan.