How to understand the latest immigration numbers
In January 2021, the first month that President Biden was in office (albeit for only a third of it), there were 78,414 stops at the US-Mexico border. The following month it was over 100,000, a number that has been exceeded every month since.
On average, about 183,000 people were stopped at the border each month. The month with the most stops was May, when more than 241,000 people were stopped.
This chart shows the relative number of total stops. Each circle is divided into constituent groups, which will be more useful in diagrams later in this article.
Early in Biden’s tenure, the vast majority of those stopped at the border were unaccompanied adults. In January 2021, 9 out of 10 people stopped fell into this category. In July and August, the number was closer to three-quarters, with a significant portion of the total (about 16 percent each month) made up of family members — adults and related children traveling together.
A more noticeable change is in the number of arrivals from countries other than Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras (the green group below). In January 2021, almost 9 out of 10 people stopped were from one of these four countries. In August it was less than half.
Last month, the number of stops involving people from Mexico and these three Central American countries was 44 percent higher than in January 2021. The number of stops involving people from other countries — Haiti, Venezuela, etc were has increased almost tenfold.
Who won’t get stopped?
Those who see the increase in border stops as an indication that illegal immigration was not prevented often point to estimates of the number of people who did were not stopped. After all, the Border Patrol cannot and will not catch everyone sneaking into the United States.
That’s true, but it’s often rooted in a lack of understanding of how border protection has changed in recent years. Data from the Department of Homeland Security shows that in 2019 more than 80 percent of those attempting to enter the country illegally were stopped, which has increased significantly over the past decade or two. In part, this is a function of the increased use of technology; in part it is due to the expanded barriers at the border under both George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Part of it probably also has something to do with why many of the border crossers are being stopped, which we’ll get to in a moment.
However, the implication is that the combined number of people both stopped at the border and who entered the country illegally is likely lower today than it was 15-20 years ago.
What happens to those who are stopped?
CBP data can be broken down into three groups: those who were arrested, those deemed inadmissible, and those who were stopped and expelled from the country.
This last group is the most controversial. At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the Trump administration instituted a policy of expeditious deportation for people stopped at the border, invoking an ordinance that addressed public health concerns. The Biden administration continued this policy, despite objections from many of the administration’s allies, until this year when it moved to repeal the policy (under the section of the code it depends on, Title 42). In May, a judge prevented the policy from being terminated.
The data also includes people who are stopped at border crossings when seeking entry deemed “illegal”. In other words, among the stops are people who tried to enter at a border check but were prevented from doing so.
Since the beginning of Biden’s tenure, the number of arrests — people stopped after entering the country — has increased as a percentage of the total number of stops. In January 2021, about 16 percent of controls were fears. Last month it was more than half.
But consider what that means: Most of those stopped at the border since January 2021 have been expelled from the country under Title 42 – nearly 1.9 million of the nearly 3.7 million stops total.
This has two implications that are relevant to the political debate. First, it means far fewer people are staying in the United States than the top-line number suggests. When the Republican Party releases a statement blowing up the number of people who have “crossed the line” under Biden — as it did Monday — it fails to mention that most of those people are being removed quickly or for removal were intended.
It also means that many of the people displaced from the United States will simply come back to the border and try again. Since Title 42 was introduced, the percentage of people stopped multiple times in a month has skyrocketed. Earlier this year, CBP reported that the number of “encounters” at the border increased by 82 percent from 2019 to 2021 – but the number of individuals stopped at the border only increased by 30 percent.
Those who are allowed to remain in the country remain in detention. Again, the rhetoric would suggest that millions of people crossed the border into the United States, where they could roam freely. But the reality is that most of those who are not deported remain in detention.
This is less likely for families or children. One reason the rising number of children detained at the border is putting a strain on federal resources is that the rules for detaining children are (understandably) stricter. Families are often released from custody to await hearings. About 920,000 of the people stopped at the border and not deported are families or children traveling alone (about 270,000).
Another complicating factor is the increase in people seeking asylum in the United States. In recent years, the number of people claiming to seek asylum when detained at the border has increased; Some immigrants are actively looking for authorities to report to. There is a court process that decides asylum applications during which immigrants are allowed to remain in the United States. When you hear claims about people entering the country illegally, that doesn’t mean they can’t legally do so remain in the United States, especially if you are awaiting an asylum hearing.
This certainly helps explain part of the increase in people arriving from countries like Venezuela. Last month, the United Nations announced that the number of refugees from Venezuela around the world was roughly equal to that from Ukraine. Many of them make their way north to the United States.
There is no question that the number of people wanting to come to the United States is straining the resources and ability of state and federal officials to respond. But it’s not as if millions of people are streaming freely across the border. Despite the recent increase in border controls, it is likely that fewer people will be stopped or flee to the United States than 20 years ago. And of those stopped since early 2021, less than half remain in the country. And only part of those who remain are eventually released to await a hearing.
The situation is complicated. That’s one of the reasons why straightforward political rhetoric resonates so much.