latest poll gives Republican lead
A new poll released Thursday showed Republican incumbent Tate Reeves in the race for state governor by a 7% lead over Democrat Brandon Presley, with a 4% margin of error.
This comes after two consecutive polls have shown a race within error, each with a different candidate topping the list.
The new poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling, a Florida-based pollster who frequently conducts polls in deep-red states like Mississippi and was ranked A by poll aggregator and news outlet FiveThirtyEight. It was commissioned by the Magnolia Tribune and included 625 registered voters who said they expected to vote in November.
The poll found that 46% of respondents intend to vote for Reeves and 39% intend to vote for Presley, the Northern District’s Public Service Commissioner. Fifteen percent of respondents were undecided, leaving an open race to win their support.
The survey was divided into a number of sub-groups, also by region. Reeves has double-digit leads in North Mississippi, the Pine Belt/Southwest Mississippi and the Gulf Coast, while Presley holds one in The Delta. The regions closest to support were Jackson Metro, where Reeves leads by 2%, and East Mississippi, where he leads by 9%.
The survey was also broken down by gender and age. Reeves has a 19% lead over Presley among men, while Presley holds a 3% among women in the state. Reeves also leads in the Mississippi over-50s by 19%, while Presley wins the under-50s by 20%.
Less than 5% of voters who identify with a political party said they support the other party’s candidate. Presley leads among independents, 42%-37%.
From a racial perspective, white respondents support Reeves 65% to 23%, while black respondents voted for Presley 69% to 11%. Undecided white respondents sit at 12%, while undecided black respondents sit at 20%.
Presley continues to face a name recognition gap compared to Reeves. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they did not know Presley’s name, compared to just 5 percent for Reeves. 39% of respondents have a positive opinion of Reeves, while 34% have a negative opinion. 22 percent of respondents see Reeves neutral. 20% view Presley positively, while only 4% view him negatively. 39 percent of those surveyed have a neutral opinion.
Neither Reeves nor Presley publicly responded to the latest poll, but Presley’s recently appointed communications director noted the current governor’s unfavorable view.
“The real red flag of this poll: Tate Reeves has walked 5 times nationwide and his favor can’t even exceed 40. The Mississippi know Tate and they just don’t like him,” said Michael Beyer said on Twitter.
The primary elections are held in August, and the general election is held on November 7th. Mississippi is one of three states to have an off-year gubernatorial election this year. The other two are Louisiana and Kentucky, both typical red states that currently have Democratic governors.
In Louisiana, incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards is on a tenure, and a number of Republicans are lining up hoping to flip control. Meanwhile, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear faces a long list of Republicans trying to prevent him from winning a second term.