Latest snow, rain, wind forecast, flooding alerts for Friday’s messy storm

For the second time this week, a major storm system has New Jersey in its sights, bringing a sloppy mix of snow and sleet to northern parts of the state late Friday afternoon and heavy rain, gusty winds and a risk of flooding to other areas early Saturday.

Here’s a look at what New Jersey residents can expect from this wet storm, from timing, rain and snowfall forecasts to flooding risks and the latest National Weather Service warnings.

When the storm comes

Forecasters say Friday morning will start out dry with some sun peeking through clouds. However, clouds are expected to thicken in the late morning, with afternoon precipitation moving southwest-northeast into New Jersey and into the northwestern parts of the state through Friday evening.

The weather service said the heaviest rain should fall Friday night during the nighttime hours when a secondary low-pressure system develops near the Delaware and Maryland coasts, then sweeping across New Jersey and toward Long Island, New York, through Saturday morning.

Forecasters say a major storm system late Friday through early Saturday will bring a mix of snow, sleet and rain to northern parts of New Jersey and heavy rain to the rest of the Garden State.

snowfall forecast

The National Weather Service says snow, sleet and freezing rain will be mostly confined to the northern region of New Jersey along and north of Interstate 80, with some mixed snow and sleet near the Interstate 78 corridor. Overall, about 1 to 2 inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain are expected across Morris, Passaic, Sussex and Warren counties, with a few pockets of 3 inches possible in high-elevation areas.

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AccuWeather is calling for 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet over the same general swath in northern New Jersey.

Light accumulations of snow and sleet are expected to be confined to the far northern region of New Jersey from Friday afternoon, March 3 through Saturday morning, March 4.

rain forecast

Most of New Jersey can expect intermittent moderate to heavy rain Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, totaling between about an inch and 1.5 inches. There could be some isolated areas with 2 inches of rain, particularly along the I-95 corridor and through central New Jersey.

Forecasters say the combination of heavy rain and strong sea winds could cause widespread coastal flooding, as well as flooding on roads with poor drainage.

This is how much rain is expected to fall in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania from Friday afternoon, March 3 through Saturday afternoon, March 4, 2023 when a strong winter coastal storm hits the region.
This is how much rain is expected to fall in northeastern New Jersey and the New York City metropolitan area from Friday afternoon, March 3 through Saturday afternoon, March 4, 2023.

Strong gusts of wind

The storm is expected to generate wind gusts of up to 25 to 30 miles per hour in interior portions of New Jersey and up to 40 to 45 miles per hour along the Jersey shore. No formal wind warnings were issued in New Jersey as of early Thursday evening.

A strong winter storm hitting the coast will bring a combination of snow, ice, heavy rain and wind gusts up to 45 miles per hour to New Jersey on Friday and Saturday. The storm carries a coastal flooding hazard along the Jersey shore.

Latest NJ weather alerts, flood monitoring

A Coastal Flood Watch, which is not as urgent as an alert, was issued for the stretches of coast of Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean counties from late Friday night to Saturday morning.

The water could rise 1 to 2 feet above the ground in low-lying areas near coasts and tidal waterways, the Weather Service noted in its flood monitor. “This level is where widespread road flooding occurs in coastal and bay communities and along inland tidal waters. Many roads become impassable. Some damage to vulnerable structures may occur.”

Areas at risk of moderate flooding include those along the Arthur Kill in Perth Amboy, Middlesex County, Sandy Hook in Monmouth County, Barnegat Bay in Ocean County, and Watson Creek in Manasquan, Monmouth County.

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A coastal flood watch was also issued for Hudson County, east Essex County and east Union County, where minor coastal flooding is expected between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m. Saturday.

Forecasters say a major storm system could cause widespread flooding in coastal areas of New Jersey, from Middlesex County’s Arthur Kill to Cape May County’s Delaware Bay.

Effects of the main storm

This chart from the National Weather Service summarizes the various threats posed by the major storm system that will hit the New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania region on Friday, March 3 through Saturday, March 4, 2023.

Current weather radar

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Employees of NJ Advance Media Jackie Roman contributed to this report.

Len Melisurgo can be reached at [email protected].

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