Can Michigan make the NCAA Tournament? Breaking down Wolverines’ March Madness odds for 2023
Michigan has evolved into a collegiate basketball powerhouse over the past decade, twice reaching the national title game and winning Big Ten tournament titles in 2017 and 2018.
Even in a bad year, the Wolverines usually have the talent to make a run. They snuck into the NCAA last season as an 11 seed and still made the Sweet 16. Sometimes Michigan just needs a chance. Will Juwan Howard’s team get that chance this year?
The Wolverines have been on the outside for most of the season, but a recent rise in the Big Ten rankings has put them in a position to steal an NCAA tournament bid. There is still a long way to go before Michigan can dance, but the opportunity is upon us.
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Here’s what Michigan must do to reach the NCAA tournament:
Will Michigan make the NCAA tournament?
As Thursday’s action began, Michigan was still out of the NCAA tournament picture by most predictions. TSN’s latest bracket projection put the Wolverines in one of the top four, leaving them within striking distance.
Given how close Michigan is, a win over Illinois Thursday night could have catapulted them into the field of 68. The Wolverines fell in double overtime, narrowly missing out on an important win.
Only an away win would give Michigan’s case a big boost, so an away win against Indiana on Sunday would keep the Wolverines’ hopes very much alive.
Back-to-back losses, however, would, at best, put Michigan’s tournament hopes in the doldrums. Road losses for quality teams aren’t much damage on their own, but the Wolverines are trying to climb into the field and would miss two big chances before the end of the regular season. The loss to Illinois shrank their margin for error significantly.
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And even if Michigan wins in Illinois, it might still need a decent performance in the Big Ten tournament.
The Wolverines also have to hope for losses from other teams in the tournament bubble. For example, an Arizona State win at UCLA or USC this week could seal a bid for the Sun Devils and drop Michigan a spot.
Similarly, a Wisconsin win over Purdue on Thursday would boost the Badgers’ hopes greatly and likely keep Wisconsin ahead of Michigan in most predictions. All Michigan can do is take care of business, but the reality of the bubble is that other outcomes matter.
Even if Michigan makes the field of 68, its chances of winning the tournament are slim. According to BetMGM, the Wolverines have a 200-1 chance of winning the national championship.
Michigan in the Big Ten tournament
The Big Ten tournament is the other route to the NCAA tournament for the Wolverines. If they win the tournament, they would receive an automatic bid and not have to worry about what the selection committee thinks.
On the one hand, this is easier said than done. There are 13 teams with eight or more conference wins in the Big Ten, making it one of the busiest leagues in the country. As Michigan has learned in the past, even a great regular season doesn’t guarantee a title at a Big Ten tournament.
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One thing the Wolverines can do, even if they don’t win the conference tournament, is win helpfully. The strength of the Big Ten means a trip to the semifinals or championship game would include victories that could bolster their case ahead of selection Sunday.
On the other hand, Michigan entered the Big Ten Thursday in second place. A top four finish would give the Wolverines a double bye and make their path to a tournament title that much easier.
The loss to Illinois put Michigan in a six-team tie with Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa and Illinois 11-8 in the Big Ten, so a double bye isn’t guaranteed.
Michigan’s record strength
Michigan’s record — 17-13 overall, 11-8 in conference play — would sometimes be what a Big Ten team needs to get into the NCAA tournament, but the Wolverines have struggled with a lack of quality wins all season. That’s why their last two games, both away against tournament teams, are so crucial.
Michigan is only 3-11 against Quad 1 opponents, although the Wolverines are 14-2 against all other teams combined.
Hidden in that tally is a Quad 4 home loss to Central Michigan in December. Central Michigan is 10-20 (5-12 MAC) and 328th in the KenPom rankings, so Michigan could feel the impact of that excitement when the bracket is unveiled.
Michigan’s metrics
Below are Michigan’s metric rankings entering Thursday’s games. NET and KPI are designed to consider a team’s overall work, while KenPom is designed to measure how well a team is doing, regardless of wins or losses.
MORE: NET Rankings Explained: How Quad 1 Wins Affect NCAA Tournament Teams
The NET is a tool developed by the NCAA that, according to the organization, “takes into account game results, schedule strength, venue, scope, offensive and defensive net efficiency, and quality of wins and losses.”
NETWORK: 42..
KenPom: 54
KPI: 50
- Quad 1: 3-11
- Quad 2: 6-1
- Quad 3: 4-0
- Quad 4: 6-1
There is no magic NET or KenPom ranking that gets a team into the NCAA tournament, although it’s worth noting that only 36 general bids are available, in addition to the automatic bids earned by teams that otherwise finish 36 would fill in.
If Michigan performs strongly on the road and in neutral Big Ten games over the next few days, there is room for upward movement on all three metrics.