March Madness Predictions 2023: 5 safe first-round NCAA Tournament picks against the spread
The 68-man field is officially seeded for the 2023 NCAA tournament, which is scheduled to begin Tuesday night with the First Four in Dayton. After the conclusion of the first four on Tuesday and Wednesday, the first round begins on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET. Bettors will try to cash in some bets to start the madness and hopefully build their bankrolls.
This year we have 10 games with double digit spreads in the first round, which is the same amount as last year’s first round. Below we look at five games in the first round where we think it’s safe to take the spread, whether the team is a favorite or an underdog. It is never easy to predict who will cover the spread in the NCAA tournament as anything can happen in a win-or-go home situation.
Safe March Madness is taking action against the spread
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
No. 5 San Diego State (-5) vs. No. 12 College of Charleston
Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET
Depending on the sportsbook, the spread for this 5-12 matchup is fixed at either 5.5 or five points. The College of Charleston enters the tournament fresh from a CAA championship and a 31-3 record. The Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 10 straight games, which might discourage some bettors from matching them against the spread. However, Charleston has excellent offense (80.8 points per game) and rebounds efficiently (40.5 rebounds per game – 14th in the NCAA). Based on those stats, along with 20-12 ATS overall, 3-0 ATS as an underdog and 9-3 ATS against non-conference teams this season, there’s a compelling case to adopting the Cougars’ spread. Aztecs could win but it could be a close game as both teams are solid defensively.
Choose: College of Charleston covers (+5)
No. 8 Auburn (-1) vs. No. 9 seed Iowa
Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET
Auburn-Iowa is another game where we think the underdog can cover the span. The Hawkeyes haven’t been great against the spread as an underdog this season (3-5) and are on neutral ground at 0-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Tigers are the favorites this season at 12-13 ATS, which doesn’t inspire much confidence either. We believe the Hawkeyes are the better team, even if the trends are against them. Kris Murray can score at all three levels, and they are more balanced offensively than Auburn, who has lost several close games this season.
Choose: Iowa Covers (+1)
No. 7 Texas A&M (-3) vs. No. 10 Penn State
Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET
The Aggies are only three-point favorites in their first-round match against the Nittany Lions, which makes a lot of sense. Texas A&M has emerged as a favorite against the spread with a 19-7 record this season (best coverage in the SEC) and 8-5 ATS in nonconference games. However, the Aggies face a Penn State team that has played well in the Big Ten and is also good against the spread. The Nittany Lions are 6-4-1 ATS in non-conference games, 11-5 ATS as underdogs and 7-1 ATS at a neutral venue. Did we mention they have a great player in Jalen Pickett, who averages 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game? If Pickett brings his A-game and the rest of the Nittany Lions follow, Penn State could rival Texas A&M Thursday night.
Choose: Penn State covers (+3)
No. 7 Michigan State (-2) vs. No. 10 USC
Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET
After picking a few underdogs to cover the spread on Thursday, we’ll cover the Spartans and win straight against USC on Friday. The Spartans are only 10-9 against the spread as favorites this year, but an impressive 16-3 right on the money line. Michigan State also has one of the best coaches on the touchline (Tom Izzo), who is 14-9 ATS with the Spartans in the first round of the NCAA tournament. It won’t be easy for Michigan State as USC has two great guards (Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson). However, the Spartans are among the top three-point scoring teams this season (39.5 percent), which will help them advance to the second round.
Choose: State of Michigan includes (-2)
No. 3 Xavier (-11.5) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET
The Musketeers should win this game on Friday after losing the Big East title to Marquette. Don’t sleep on the Owls, however, who had an impressive season in which they defeated Liberty twice, including in the ASUN title game for the car bid. Kennesaw State held its ground 7-3 ATS in non-conference games including Indiana, Florida, VCU and San Diego State. The Owls are 3-1 against the spread when listed as underdogs with 10 points or more and 9-4 ATS as underdogs this season. They were also one of the best teams in the NCAA against the spread (20-10-1). Again, Xavier should win, but Kennesaw State will fight to the end.
Choose: State of Kennesaw covers (+11.5)
2023 NCAA Tournament: ATS Records for 68th Field
| team | conference | ATS entry |
| Kennesaw State | A SUN | 20-10-1 |
| State of Montana | big sky | 19-11-2 |
| UNC Ashville | Big South | 18-13-1 |
| College of Charleston | CAA | 20-12-1 |
| Northern Kentucky | horizon league | 14-18 |
| drake | MVC | 16-16-1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Northeast | 15-17 |
| State of Southeast Missouri | OVC | 19-13-1 |
| Furman | South | 18-13 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Christi | southland | 17-12 |
| Oral Roberts | summit | 13-16-1 |
| Louisiana | sunbelt | 16-13-1 |
| gonzaga | WCC | 13-18-1 |
| Pittsburgh | Acc | 22-10-1 |
| Florida Atlantic | C-USA | 21-10-1 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 23-11 |
| State of Kansas | big 12 | 21-11 |
| Connecticut | Great East | 21-11-1 |
| Kent State | MAC | 20-11-1 |
| Marquette | Great East | 21-12-1 |
| Maryland | big ten | 21-12 |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 20-12-2 |
| Vermont | America East | 20-12-1 |
| Pennsylvania | big ten | 20-13-2 |
| northwest | big ten | 19-13 |
| St. Mary | WCC | 19-13 |
| Iona | MAAC | 20-14 |
| Howard | MEAC | 18-13 |
| Alabama | SEC | 19-14 |
| Miami, FL) | Acc | 18-14 |
| providence | Great East | 18-14 |
| Princeton | ivy | 15-12 |
| Illinois | big ten | 17-14-1 |
| VCU | Atlantic 10 | 18-15-1 |
| xavier | Great East | 18-15-1 |
| State of Boise | mountain west | 16-14-2 |
| U.S.C | Pac-12 | 17-15 |
| Iowa | big ten | 17-15 |
| Houston | Supported communication | 18-16 |
| NC state | Acc | 16-15-2 |
| Baylor | big 12 | 16-15-1 |
| memphis | Supported communication | 17-16-1 |
| West Virginia | big 12 | 17-16 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 17-16 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 16-16-1 |
| Missouri | SEC | 16-16-1 |
| Texas | big 12 | 17-17 |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 16-16-2 |
| State of Iowa | big 12 | 16-16 |
| TCU | big 12 | 16-16-1 |
| State of Mississippi | SEC | 16-16-1 |
| State of San Diego | mountain west | 15-15-2 |
| Creighton | Great East | 16-17 |
| State of Michigan | big ten | 15-16 |
| Kansas | big 12 | 16-18 |
| Maroon | SEC | 15-17 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 15-17 |
| Indiana | big ten | 15-17-1 |
| duke | Acc | 15-19 |
| State of Arizona | Pac-12 | 15-19 |
| Purdue | big ten | 13-19-2 |
| Virginia | Acc | 18.12.2 |
| Texas South | SWAC | 19.11.2 |
| Nevada | mountain west | 18-11-2 |
| Colgate | patriot | 17-16 |
| Grand Canyon | WAC | 15-18 |
| UCSB | Great West | 20-10-2 |