March Madness predictions 2023: Using KenPom to pick NCAA bracket upsets, Final Four
If you don’t consult Ken Pomeroy’s eponymous KenPom ratings before making your selections for the 2023 NCAA tournament through the Final Four, then you would be doing something wrong. It’s called March Madness because of those unforeseen surprises, early exits and fantastic results – but in the end it’s still about statistical sanity.
Tons of bracket fillers pick for the tournament based on teams they like and dislike based on recency, rankings, and seeding bias, but Pomeroy’s detailed, number-based bracket breakdown is no longer fancy analysis — it carries a story of success.
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You can learn a lot by looking at the results of the last 14 NCAA tournaments. From Kansas, which broke the nets in 2008 to the Jayhawks, who did it again last year, only five of 56 teams (8.9 percent) participating in those tournaments made it to the Final Four outside of the top 20 in KenPom.
Kansas was No. 3 in KenPom during the 1922 regular season, while North Carolina (No. 16), Duke (No. 8), and Villanova joined them in the Final Four. In ’21, alongside champion Baylor (#2 in KenPom), runner-up Gonzaga (#1 in KenPom), Houston (#5 in KenPom), and UCLA (#13 in KenPom) also made the Final Four. .
Eight of the last 14 NCAA champions have been ranked #1 in KenPom. Gonzaga, No. 1 in 2017 and 2021, made the championship game in both years. Another, Kentucky in 2015, made the Final Four.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
So here you will find the right chalk. But KenPom can also help you identify clinch thresholds and misses based on two signature stats: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When a team scores highly in either area, it can offset deficiencies at the other end.
When Loyola Chicago crashed the Final Four in 2018, it had the number 17 KenPom defense on its side. In 2017, South Carolina ranked 91st on offense but made a run to the Final Four as the No. 7 seed thanks to its third-ranked defense. In 2013, Louisville advanced to the Final Four with their seventh offense and best defense.
Throw out the two teams that have been the biggest statistical anomalies since 2010 — VCU and Butler, both in 2011 — and nothing was shocking in the national semifinals, factoring in KenPom. When a team ranks higher on both offense and defense, they can expect to beat everyone in every part of the tournament.
But before you use KenPom to hit your bracket picks for March Madness 2023, here are some things to know about this year’s NCAA tournament field based on its ratings:
HISTORY OF ORIGINS THROUGH SEEDS:
15 against 2 | 14 against 3 | 13 against 4 | 12 against 5
KenPom ratings for 2023 March Madness
Top teams in NCAA tournament by KenPom rankings
| 1. Houston (#1 in the Midwest) |
| 2. UCLA (#2 West) |
| 3. Alabama (#1 South) |
| 4. Connecticut (#4 West) |
| 5. Tennessee (#4 East) |
| 6. Purdue (#1 East) |
| 7. Gonzaga (#3 West) |
| 8. Texas (#2 in the Midwest) |
| 9. Kansas (#1 in the West) |
| 10. Arizona (#2 South) |
Top teams in KenPom adjusted Offensive Efficiency
| 1. Gonzaga (No. 3 in the West) |
| 2. Baylor (#3 South) |
| 3. Iowa (#8 in the Midwest) |
| 4. Arizona (#2 South) |
| 5. Connecticut (#4 West) |
| 6. Purdue (#1 East) |
| 7. Marquette (#2 East) |
| 8. Xavier (#3 in the Midwest) |
| 9. Missouri (#7 South) |
| 10. Houston (#1 in the Midwest) |
Top teams in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency
| 1. UCLA (#2 West) |
| 2. Tennessee (#4 East) |
| 3. Alabama (#1 South) |
| 4. Houston (#1 in the Midwest) |
| 5. State of Mississippi (No. 11 in the Midwest) |
| 6. Kansas (#1 in the West) |
| 7. Iowa State (#6 in the Midwest) |
| 8. Saint Mary’s (No. 5 West) |
| 9. San Diego State (#5 South) |
| 10. Texas (No. 2 in the Midwest) |
Most likely first round and second round upsets based on KenPom through seeding
| 1. No. 10 Utah State via No. 7 Missouri (South) |
| 2. No. 10 Boise State via No. 7 Northwestern (West) |
| 3. #9 Auburn via #8 Iowa (Midwest) |
| 4. No. 9 West Virginia via No. 8 Maryland (South) |
| 5. No. 10 USC via No. 7 Michigan State (East) |
| 6. #10 Penn State via #7 Texas A&M (Midwest) |
| 7. No. 8 Arkansas via No. 1 Kansas (West) |
| 8. No. 9 West Virginia via No. 1 Alabama (South) |
| 9. No. 11 Providence over No. 6 Kentucky (East) |
| 10. No. 12 Oral Roberts via No. 5 Duke (East) |
The Most Underrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament
| 1. State of Utah (#18 in KenPom, #10 in the South) |
| 2. West Virginia (#17 in KenPom, #9 in South) |
| 3. Memphis (#19 in KenPom, #8 in East) |
| 4. Arkansas (#20 in KenPom, #8 in West) |
| 5. Creighton (No. 13 in KenPom, No. 6 in South) |
| 6. Florida Atlantic (#26 in KenPom, #9 in East) |
| 7. Maryland (#22 in KenPom, #8 in South) |
| 8. Boise State (#31 in KenPom, #10 in West) |
| 9. Saint Mary’s (#11 in KenPom, #5 in West) |
| 10. Auburn (#29 in KenPom, #9 in the Midwest) |
Most Overrated Teams in NCAA Tournament
| 1. Pittsburgh (#77 in KenPom, #11 in the Midwest) |
| 2. Charleston (#73 in KenPom, #12 in South) |
| 3. Arizona State (#68 in KenPom, #11 in West) |
| 4. Missouri (#23 in KenPom. #7 in South) |
| 5. Iona (#74 in KenPom, #13 in West) |
| 6. Miami (#40 in KenPom, #5 in the Midwest) |
| 7. Kent State (#71 in KenPom, #13 in the Midwest) |
| 8. Virginia (#34 in KenPom, #4 in South) |
| 9. Drake (#66 in KenPom, #12 in the Midwest) |
| 10. Indiana (#30 in KenPom, #4 in the Midwest) |
| 10. Northwestern (#42 in KenPom, #7 in West) |
March Madness Bracket Predictions 2023
Region South
Alabama will have it tested early if West Virginia (No. 17 in KenPom) and San Diego State (No. 14 in KenPom) survive and advance early. However, Utah State (No. 18 in KenPom) and Creighton (No. 13 in KenPom) are the teams to watch the most as bracket busters.
Region East
Duke and Tennessee should be on alert early, while Memphis (No. 19 in KenPom) can push Purdue in the second round. Marquette (No. 12 in Ken Pom) with Shaka Smart’s experience as a coach looks poised for a deep run.
Middle West
Houston gets a break in the top half here, with Auburn (No. 29 in KenPom) becoming the toughest of a weak group. Iowa State (No. 23 KenPom) is a tricky team in the bottom half, but red-hot Texas (No. 6 KenPom) looks like the team to beat in the group.
West region
Kansas gets a brutal tie as the defending champion, while Arkansas (No. 20 in KenPom) is likely to give him trouble in the second round. However, Connecticut (No. 4 in Ken Pom) can stop a Cinderella run by the Razorbacks. UCLA has a rough regional challenge against Gonzaga (#8 in KenPom).
Final Four Picks 2023
- South: Alabama
- East: Marquette
- Midwest: Texas
- West: Connecticut
Looking at overall KenPom ratings, Alabama (#3), Marquette (#12), Texas (#6), Connecticut (#4) make a fine traditional foursome, well within the top 20. Alabama though that’s just No. 1 seed here, Texas and Marquette are powerful No. 2s, and Connecticut is a dangerous, underrated No. 4. All teams are also well balanced with offensive and defensive efficiency.
National Champion: Alabama
What is this that predicts the winner of the college football playoffs? This would be the crowning achievement of a worthy KenPom-Rated champion, behind only Houston and UCLA. The nation’s No. 3 defense plus a top-20 offense is a tough combination for Nate Oats to beat. Texas is the runner-up based on solid all-around play. KenPom doesn’t account for intangibles, but the different types of adversity both programs face should translate into a battle-tested resilience.
Nick Saban has a lot of fun with trophies. The basketball tide will not “roll over” the soccer program like it has in the past, but is in the best position to win a hard-fought tournament.