March Madness upset predictions 2023: Which 10 seed is most likely to win in first round?
The difference between a 7 and a 10 may seem huge – three dots – but as someone who has been doing bracket projections for years I can tell you that the line difference in CVs between the teams on the 7s and 10s is typical slim.
Sure, it’s a lot different than the teams on lines 1 and 4, if that makes sense.
Because of this, you often see the Vegas lines small for these games. That is the case this year. In fact, two of the 10 seeded players will be favored in the 7v10 games this year.
10 seeded track record in NCAA tournaments is serviceable. The #7 seed is 90-58 – a win rate of 0.608 – in the first round.
A total of 24 No. 10 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16, nine made it to the Elite Eight — including Miami last year — and Syracuse made the Final Four as the No. 10 seed in 2016.
Which number 10 is best equipped for a run? Sporting News takes a closer look:
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USC No. 10 vs. Michigan State No. 7
BetMGM Odds: State of Michigan -1.5 (over/under 137.5)
Why this can happen: It’s been a season of ups and downs in the Big Ten for Michigan State; The Spartans started the league 4-1 but haven’t won more than two straight games since early January, ending in a 10-point loss in the conference tournament to Ohio State. USC may not be the traditionally dangerous 10-seeded team — you know, the mid-sized team that’s won a ton of games and the conference tournament — but the Trojans finished second in the Pac-12 with 2-seeded Arizona They shared the season streak the UCLA regular season Pac-12 champion.
No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 7 Missouri
BetMGM Odds: State of Utah -1.5 (over/under 154.5)
Why this can happen: Why? ‘Cause look at that above/below. That’s a glorious O/U, folks. When the line is SO high, you know both teams can light the scoreboard. And the truth is, it might not be high enough. No one who has watched either team would be at all shocked if this game ends in the 80s with both teams. And here’s the thing: If both teams are capable of scoring points in bunches — Utah State has four players with 30-plus made 3-pointers, Mizzou has five — the team, just getting a little hotter, can quickly pull away. As you can see from the line, if that team were the Aggies, Vegas would be upset about the seed but not at all surprised.
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#10 Penn State vs. #7 Texas A&M
BetMGM Odds: Texas A&M -2.5 (Over/Under 132.5)
Why this can happen: Does momentum matter? Because Penn State has a lot of momentum right now. Before falling two points to No. 1 Purdue in the Big Ten tournament title game, the Nittany Lions had won five straight games — all against B10 teams that were broadly bid in the NCAA tournament. And they were all close wins too, showing the kind of guts it takes to win in March.
No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 7 Northwestern
BetMGM Odds: Boise State -1.5 (over/under 129.5)
Why this can happen: While Penn State rose in Big Ten action, Northwestern slipped in the stretch run. The Wildcats lost four of their last five games — two to Penn State — and are entering the NCAA tournament with their worst basketball of the year. At least it’s their worst result stretch this season. And while that’s not always a recipe for disappointment in March, it’s not great either. Boise State is a good team capable of winning a grind game. Do you see the over/under? This should be a grinder of a game.