Mike Trout’s Latest Injury May Leave the Angels Floundering

The Angels began Independence Day by announcing that Mike Trout had fractured the hamate of his left wrist and would be out for at least the next four to eight weeks. That cuts short his healthiest season since 2016; Trout had played in 81 of the team’s 87 games and rib dysfunction in his back – something that will remain a long-term problem – didn’t prevent him from playing in midfield on a daily basis. That wasn’t the only fireworks display for the Angels either; Later that day, Anthony Rendon suffered a blow to his lower leg, a blow so painful he needed help getting up and leaving the field. And as if that wasn’t enough for Orange County fans, Shohei Ohtani was sidelined from the start with a then-unknown injury and left the field accompanied by a coach – real horror footage. At least his problem turned out to be not serious, but it was not the most festive holiday. He dropped the second of three games against the Padres right after Juan Soto served a small but fine portion of trash talkremoved any silver lining.

The Angels announce that Mike Trout is transferring to the IL with a left hamate fracture.

This is a heavy blow for the Angels, who are already struggling with many injuries.

Jo Adell was called up.

— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) July 4, 2023

Rendon’s x-rays of his shin turned out negativeTherefore, his injury is initially diagnosed as a shin sprain. It’s still possible he could end up on the injury list but it seems he avoided a serious injury. Thankfully, the Angels have greater depth at third base than they did just a few months ago following the cautious takeovers of Eduardo Escobar and Mike Moustakas in recent weeks. Neither will likely replace the Angels’ production hope von Rendon but the position is unlikely to be a disaster in his absence.

Ohtani’s injury is linked to a blister believed to stem from treatment for a cracked fingernail that delayed his start by a day. Blisters have been attributed to pitchers missing significant playing time; Josh Beckett is a prime example. But if that’s just because Ohtani’s acrylic nail degrades as the game progresses, that doesn’t seem like anything to worry about. However, he has hinted that he won’t be in the All-Star Game, which stinks to viewers but is more of a by-product by and large. In any case, we basically had the big All-Star moment earlier in the year when Ohtani faced Trout and the WBC was at stake. And even if Ohtani ends up missing a start with the Angels, it’s no problem that he keeps hitting.

But if Rendon and Ohtani injuries aren’t a big deal, Trout’s certainly is. The three-time MVP broke the hamum bone in his wrist while hitting a pitch from Nick Martinez in the eighth inning on Monday. While the injury will by no means affect his career, it will keep him out of the squad for a month or two. The Angels rely heavily on the performance of their two megastars, so losing one of them for about a third to two thirds of the remainder of the season is a particularly unwelcome sight. The team is around .500 and just four games behind the Yankees for the last wildcard spot, so we’re talking a group with valid ambitions in October. But the angels are not alone; The Blue Jays, Mariners, Red Sox and Guardians are all just two games away from them in the standings, meaning every win has a big impact on the playoffs.

Tuesday’s game gave a glimpse of what the Angels will look like during Trout’s recovery: Moustakas at first base, Hunter Renfroe back in outfield and Mickey Moniak moving to midfield. How well you do with the angels enduring the loss of Trout depends on how confident you are of Moniak’s abilities. If you ask a projection system, the answer is “not very”. He’s undeniably contributed with the racquet to the Angels this season, but the fact remains he also has a dismal professional record in terms of performance. His 2022 was cut short due to a wrist injury of his own, and while he did very well in his month with the Minors, his cups of coffee with the Angels and Phillies — a .170/.207/.302 line — certainly weren’t successful. I will not yell “breakout candidate” at anyone. Also the previous minor league translations for him in ZiPS: .191/.251/.368 in 2021, .210/.250/.348 in 2019.

There’s also good reason to be skeptical about Moniak’s unexpected line for the Halos in 2023. His power was impressive at times – 16.7% barrel percentage – but it was inconsistent, with his hard hit percentage dropping around 35%. A major factor in this is that his disc discipline is terrible with an out-of-zone swing rate of 49.2%. In context, that’s a worse number than Javier Báez’s always Over the course of a season, he has about a 50% higher chance than the average player of swinging out of zone on a pitch. While someone like Luis Arraez can hit a shocking number of hits (.348 BA this year!) on these out-of-bounds pitches, that’s not Moniak, who hits .091 – four hits on – on pitches outside the matchday strike zone total of 105 out-of-zone pitches he has offered. This approach is very difficult to sustain over the long term.

So what is the bottom line? Here’s the predicted ZiPS AL West ranking, assuming Trout misses two months – I’ll provide the numbers for a month and all the stuff after that – starting Wednesday morning.

ZiPS didn’t expect Trout to be completely healthy without the injury, and his prognosis is certainly diminished somewhat by his rather ordinary season at Superstar level so far. But despite those caveats, ZiPS reckons the Angels will struggle to land above .500 without him and will be slightly below that mark from now on. For comparison, here’s what the predicted placement would be without this injury:

The Angels only lost two wins (rounded) on average, but that was enough to cut their playoff chance by almost half and their World Series chance by just over half as their division title chances were more impacted. Basically, The Snap of Trout’s hamate bone was the Angels’ 2023 Infinity Gauntleted season.

Here are the promised forecast charts with a month-long recovery and Trout ready for the season:

Of course, it would be a disaster if Trout suffered a setback and missed the season, but even losing him for a month is a huge blow.

Before Trout’s injury, I was adamant that the Angels had to be aggressive buyers during that period. With Ohtani on the way to free agency, plenty of competition for wild card slots and some real gaps in the roster, all the incentives are in place for a big, splashy swap at the end of July. Without Trout, the need to attract talent becomes even more pressing. Failing that, it’s becoming increasingly likely that we’ll never see the greatest baseball player of the decade and his successor play in the playoffs together, and that would be a shame.