NBA Best Bets for Wednesday: Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds, picks, predictions

The NBA has been on fire since the All-Star hiatus ended last week, and we could see another classic in Boston tonight when powerhouse Celtics host the Cavaliers at TD Garden (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Let’s break down the betting odds, trends, best bets, and top player props for this Eastern Conference showdown.

With over 75 percent of the regular season on the books, every game counts in the insane sprint to the finish line. The Celtics (44-18), who had had the best record in the NBA for most of the 2022-23 season, were recently overtaken by the rising Bucks (44-17). Meanwhile, the Cavs (39-25) have won eight of their last 11 games and are looking to beat Boston for the third time this season after winning rousing overtime in October and November.

The Celtics have won nine of their last 12 games, and their 24-7 home record ranks sixth in the NBA. They are also 18-13 against the spread at home, while Cleveland has gone 13-18 in away games and 3-9 as an away underdog. As many Green Teamers recall, Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert each lost 41 points en route to a 132-123 OT win the last time Boston hosted the Cavs. Cleveland is the only team not to defeat Boston at least once this season.

The Celtics will be happy to have Jaylen Brown back after the All-Star guard missed Monday’s game against the Knicks due to personal reasons. JB had previously missed five contests in February due to a facial fracture sustained when he collided with Jayson Tatum. Boston went 4-1 at that stretch but lost to a confident New York team 109-94 on Monday.

Speaking of losses, Cleveland broke its three-game losing streak and bounced back from a 136-119 win over Atlanta last Friday with a comfortable 118-93 win over the Raptors. However, the Cavs have not defeated a team with a winning record since their 118-107 win over the Pelicans in New Orleans on Feb. 10. A win tonight against a mostly healthy Celtics roster will remind everyone in the Association that Cleveland deserved to remain on the shortlist of NBA Finals contenders.

Can the Celtics finally figure out how to beat Donovan Mitchell and the twin tower duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley? Or will the Cavaliers continue their reign of terror over Boston and catch up with the Eastern Conference powerhouse 3-0? Below, we’ll break down this prime-time competition as we make our prediction and best bets on another marquee NBA game to remember.

Celtics vs Cavaliers odds, tips, predictions

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

• spread: Boston -4.5 (-115) | Cleveland +4.5 (-105)
• In total: About 218.5 (-115) | Under 218.5 (-105)
• money line: Boston-200 | Cleveland +160

It’s easy to see why odds makers have so much respect for the Celtics, listing them as -4.5 favorites despite their troubles with Cleveland this season. Boston has the most wins this season with Milwaukee and Denver, and the C’s are the only team in the NBA to place in the top four in both offensive and defensive standings. Not surprisingly, their 5.8 net rating leads the NBA, with Cleveland ironically hot on their heels with a 5.5 rating.

Home court obviously plays a big part in BetMGM’s line here as Boston played 2Garden and 18-13 at home against the spread. The Celtics are also 23-17 against Eastern Conference teams and have exactly the same record when they have a rest day. Cleveland’s 3-9 record as a street underdog ranks among the second-worst in the NBA, with only the Grizzlies having worse coverage than away dogs. (1-8).

Of course, let’s not forget that the Cavs staged a comeback win in Boston in October, going 132-123 thanks to the exploits of Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert, as well as some dominant insiders from Cleveland’s Bigs. A lot has of course changed since the end of October.

Most notable difference: All-defensive center Robert Williams III is back at center for the Greens. RW3 offers immeasurable rim protection and rebound assistance, two aspects of the game that Boston struggled mightily against bigger teams like Cleveland while Williams rehabilitated his knee. The combination of Williams and tall veteran Al Horford gives the Cs a much-needed bottom-end combination of sizes to fight the Cavs’ double whammy against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

The Celtics also have much better chemistry going into the second half of the season than they did at the start of the year. Joe Mazzulla was rightfully stripped of “interim” status and now serves as a deserving head coach for a team that respects him. From the ground up, each player knows their role within this system.

Malcolm Brogdon, who has been good all season, has taken the lead in the sixth man of the year race. Jayson Tatum was one of the favorites in the MVP race right from the start. Derrick White is enjoying what may be his best season as a pro, and even trade-deadline acquisition Mike Muscala has turned back time and looked deadly at key moments.

But Cleveland will by no means be a pushover. JB Bickerstaff’s roster is the NBA’s #1 goal saver, allowing just 106.5 points per game. The Cavs are also in the top three in the association in field goals, three-pointers, rebounds and assists allowed. They also rank fifth in the league for field goal percentage (48.8) and rank in the top 10 for turnovers and fouls committed.

Such a battle of defensive powerhouses caught the attention of oddsmakers with the forecast of 218.5 total points, but it’s important to note that (a) these two sides have averaged exactly 115.3 points in their last three games, ( b) Cleveland has given up 115.5 points per game in their last four; and (c) Boston has given up 115.8 points per game in their last four. Since the NBA has generally been scoring since the All-Star break — and both of these teams are rested — we’re going to bet the Celtics’ moneyline and smash the OVER this game.

Best Bet: Celtics -200 And OVER 218.5

Celtics vs. Cavaliers Best Player Prop Bet: Al Horford OVER 8.5 points (+105)

Horford might be one of the more boring Celtics to bet on in the player prop market, but plus odds with a very feasible total score easily make him one of the best bets on the night. The veteran big man always comes out in the home stretch of the season and in the playoffs, and we’re expecting no less tonight in a major rivalry game against the only squad Boston hasn’t defeated this season. With Robert Williams back in the middle, Horford has more freedom to move away from the interior and better distance to find openings from the three-point line as Tatum, Brown and the guards drive and kick. Big Al has 11-plus points in four of Boston’s last five games and has lost 13 and 15 in the last two games. Bet on the big man and grab some hard-earned points.