NFL odds Week 5: How to bet Dolphins-Jets, pick

The Miami Dolphins (3-1) will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) when they take on the New York Jets (2-2) in a key AFC East Division contest on Sunday.

Veteran Teddy Bridgewater starts for Miami.

The Dolphins lead the all-time series against the Jets 57-55-1. Miami has controlled the NFL rivalry – which began in 1966 – by winning the last four games and eight of the last nine.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Dolphins-Jets game, from point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

TIED TOGETHER: Tagovailoa eliminated against Jets

dolphins @ nozzles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point distribution: Dolphins -3.5 (Dolphins prefer to win with more than 3.5 points, otherwise Jets cover)
money line: Dolphins -167 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.99 total); Jets +130 Win underdogs (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Total score over/under: Both teams scored 44.5 points together

The Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.

The Dolphins have hit the under in the over/under (O/U) in 10 of their last 14 games.

The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.

The Jets have hit the over in O/U 12 times in their last 18 games.

The Jets have won 1-7 straight (SU) in their last eight home games.

The Jets have hit the under in the O/U in their last five home games against the Dolphins.

Insights about Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

It will be a welcome relief for the Jets to be done with the AFC North. The Jets played their first four games against the brutal AFC North, and the last two games came against the Bengal and Steelerboth top 10 defenses.

Now the Jets must face the fifth-worst defense in the NFL, the Dolphins.

Miami is second in yards per pass this year.

And they were the worst pass defenses in the NFL versus game action.

When using game actions, QBs record +0.65 EPA/att, which is #1 in the NFL and well above the NFL average of +0.12 EPA/att.

When teams aren’t using game action against the Dolphins, their pass attempts average +0.05 EPA/att.

So it’s made a big difference for QBs when they’re up against the Dolphins.

In his game against the Steelers, Wilson had massive on and off game action splits on early down passes:

With game action:

+0.09 EPA/att, 50% success, 8.0 YPA

Without game action:

-0.23 EPA/att, 19% success, 5.1 YPA

If the jets have improved Wilson’s Leveraging play-action, and this isn’t the case with a small sample size, it’s going to be huge for them this season.

That’s because Wilson was one of the NFL’s worst QBs with play-action passes last season.

Check out his breakups in 2021:

With game action:

-0.31 EPA/att, 32% success, 5.8 YPA

Without game action:

-0.10 EPA/att, 37% success, 6.2 YPA

Using game action could end up working well for Wilson if the line can provide protection long enough.

I can’t think of a team for the Dolphins that took 10 more days off a game than the Dolphins.

From the game against the bills In brutal heat until the short turn on the road and losing your starting QB to a bad concussion, followed by all the media blitz and criticism, it was a tough time. Because of that, it was the perfect time to spend extra days away from the facility to rest and prepare for this game.

Say what you want Teddy Bridgewaters Performance after pasting for Tua last Thursday, but I think he’ll look MUCH better here against the Jets’ pass defense.

What’s amazing about Tua and this Dolphins offense is that they’re #2 in overall efficiency, including #2 in passing efficiency, despite playing the toughest plan of #1 pass defense.

They played nothing but three top 10 pass defenses and threw in the No. 14 for safety.

Now they finally get to face off against the Jets’ fourth-worst pass defense. This will be the worst pass defense the Dolphins will face all season.

I have no doubts that Teddy Bridgewater will look good in this situation given the players around him, his coaching and the time he’s had to prepare. He won’t outperform Tua, but against this defense he should be satisfactory.

Remember that last year when Teddy Bridgewater quartered Vic Fangio’s Broncos, he faced that same Jets defense and scored 19 of 25 for 235 yards (9.4 YPA), +0.37 EPA/att and 48% success scored while scoring 26 points. That was a far less creative, talented, and well-trained offensive line than what he’s doing now with the Dolphins.

I would look at the over in this game.

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