Rhamondre Stevenson or AJ Dillon: Who’s the better fantasy draft pick in 2022?

No matter how many mock drafts you complete in preparation for your league’s big day, you will inevitably make difficult decisions during your draft. In many cases, the split-second decision you make between two similar players who are close in the rankings can decide or destroy your entire fantasy football season (no pressure). At RB, two of those players — “Handcuffs” Rhamondre Stevenson and AJ Dillon — have breakout potential but affordable ADPs, putting both on the radar as big draft-day steals.

These backs share many similarities, from their roles to their comparative stats, skills, and perks. Let’s break down each player’s fantasy prospects for 2022 and determine which ones to pick first in your draft.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Outlook, projections 2022

2021 ready: RB36 overall, RB36 on average

Given the circumstances of Stevenson’s 2021 rookie season with the Patriots, it’s pretty amazing that the Oklahoma product had 606 rushing yards and five touchdowns. That production came despite missing five games, accumulating five or fewer carries in three games, and surpassing 11 touches just five times. He ended the campaign with just 133 carries and not even 150 total touches.

If he enjoys being in Bill Belichick’s good graces, Stevenson certainly delivers. His 4.6 yards per carry in 21 easily led all rookie RBs who recorded at least 100 carries. PFF gave his season an 84.9, the third best grade given to an RB. He caught 14 of 18 targets and averaged 8.8 yards per reception. He only had two fumbles despite playing for contact.

PPR RANKINGS 2022:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | Top 200 | Superflex

And at 6-0, 230 pounds, playing on contact is certainly one of Stevenson’s strengths. His size and strength help him master one-on-one fights and gain great distance with his solid escape speed (think a moderately faster David Montgomery). Stevenson broke 16 tackles in 133 carries last season — the only other defender with that many broken tackles in fewer than 200 rushing attempts was Dillon, who finished with 187 carries.

It’s Stevenson’s efficiency that should make all fantasy owners salivate. The 4.6 yards per dead mentioned above is great – but delve deeper and you’ll see he averaged 2.7 yards after contact per rushing attempt (YACON/A). Among defenders with at least 100 carries only Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and Rashad Penny averaged more YACON/A. Stevenson also had 20 big rush plays of at least 10 yards, meaning he’s hit opponents for 10+ rushing yards on 15 percent of his carries.

STANDARD RANKINGS 2022:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | Top 200 | Superflex

Belichick, who affectionately refers to his sophomore year as “Mondre,” has hinted at the possibility that Stevenson could be more in the Pats’ passing game this year. He praised his pass blocking and ability to pick up streaks, no small praise from the legendary coach who had just lost legendary local pass catcher James White (retired) and Swiss Army knife Brandon Bolden (signed with Raiders). If Bill Stevenson’s instincts are trusted, there seems little doubt that New England will take the 24-year-old closer to a 50-50 split with RB1 Damien Harris.

With fellow sophomore Mac Jones in the middle, Stevenson and Harris will be dependable in the running game. Belichick and former Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels appeared to keep Jones on a tight leash during his rookie season, instead opting for a physical approach on offense. The goal, it often seemed, was to wear down front seven.

This approach could again yield rewarding results, as New England is expected to have the second-easiest running back schedule in the NFL this season. Behind a consistently strong run-blocking line, expect a solid return on investment if you draft Stevenson anywhere in the 45-50 range overall. He should be considered a high-ceilinged RB2 or a solid weekly flex option until we know more about his ultimate role in this year’s Patriot offense.

2022 FANTASY THRESHOLDS:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team

AJ Dillon Fantasy Outlook, projections 2022

End of 2021: RB21 overall, RB32 average

While Stevenson is a big strong back, Dillon is an absolute tank for Green Bay. At 6-0, 250 pounds, he’s the same weight as Derrick Henry despite being three inches shorter. He’s almost as tough to fight as King Henry in the open field. In his sophomore year as a pro, the BC product rallied a total of 518 yards from contact, 111 of which came from catches. Overall, PFF ranked Dillon as the fifth best RB in the NFL.

Playing for back-to-back MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers has helped Dillon immensely as the defense rarely sells out to stop the run for fear Rodgers will call out a quick audible and take advantage of them through the air. Dillon averaged a healthy 4.3 yards per carry last season and caught a whopping 34 of 37 pass attempts.

AUCTION VALUES 2022 (Standard & PPR):
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | foosball | In total

Rodgers has praised Dillon’s passing abilities, comparing his skills to Packer’s RB1 and hybrid extraordinaire Aaron Jones. He even suggested that Dillon will be featured in passing plays in a myriad of ways this season. With former All-Pro Davante Adams now in Vegas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Kansas City and rookie Christian Watson seemingly not adjusting fast enough, that’s no surprise.

Speaking of Jones and Dillon, Rodgers said: “We’ve got to get our best 11 on the field and it seems like those two are both in the top 11. I think 50 catches for these two guys is realistic.”

RANKING 2022 & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs

That’s certainly tantalizing fodder for fantasy owners, but with Adams out of the picture and the passing game a mere shell of what it once was at Lambeau, Jones and Dillon will see the same levels of success they’ve seen in theirs respective countries have enjoyed careers?

Questions like these don’t seem to get asked often enough with this team, especially in the backcourt. Opposing coaches and defensive units will likely come well-prepared as Green Bay adopts a newfound run-first, dink-and-dunk approach. Dillon went from 5.3 yards per carry in his rookie season to 4.3 last year. Will he continue to regress?

Fantasy animators seem intrigued by Dillon’s massive physique, his MVP quarterback and his 2021 totals that easily surpass Stevenson’s. However, when you break it all down to the benefits, the efficiency and the system, you get a very different overall picture.

Stevenson’s 50.5 yards at 11.1 carries per game last year surpassed Dillon’s 47.2 at 11.0. His 4.6 yards per carry beat Dillon’s 4.3. His average 2.7 yards from contact beat Dillon’s 2.2. With the second year back rightfully catching the attention of its head coach, it seems like the easier choice to see a bigger year-on-year increase in usage and offer more value in return. Stevenson’s biggest concern is working on the goal line as Damien Harris is well established in that role but given Stevenson’s size he could easily take over from within the five.

We like both Stevenson and Dillon and wouldn’t pass on the mid to late 40’s of a draft, but Stevenson offers the biggest advantage.

The choice is…Stevenson

To see how RotoBaller handles Stevenson against Dillon – or any other four players you consider in your draft – watch the exclusive Who to Draft? tool below:

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