San Diego State vs. Alabama odds, prediction, betting trends for 2023 March Madness Sweet 16 matchup
In the first game on Friday night, No. 5 San Diego State plays KFC Yum! at 6:30 p.m. ET in Louisville! against the No. 1 seed Alabama. Center (TBS).
The Aztecs defeated double-digit seeded No. 12 (Charleston, No. 12, Furman, No. 13) en route to their Sweet 16 matchup against the Crimson Tide. In the first round, San Diego State survived a College of Charleston scare and eventually defeated the Cougars 63-57. Matt Bradley was the only double-digit scorer for San Diego State with 17 points (7-15 FG, 1-4 3 points). He also added seven rebounds (second-best in the Aztecs) and four assists. After defeating the Cougars, the Aztecs dominated Furman 75-52 in the second round. San Diego State put in a better performance off their offense as four players cracked double digits. This is the first time in Brian Dutcher’s era that the Aztecs have survived the first weekend.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide picked up two blowout wins over Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (96-75) and No. 8 Maryland (73-51). Junior forward Nick Pringle led ‘Bama with 19 points on the bench. He also had a team high of 15 rebounds (10 def boards). Star freshman forward Brandon Miller didn’t play well in his tournament debut, recording zero points (0-5 FG, 0-3 3pt), five rebounds and three assists in 19 minutes. However, Miller rebounded in Alabama’s win over Maryland, scoring 19 points (5-17 FG, 2-6 3 points) and adding seven rebounds. Senior guard Jahvon Quinerly was the top scorer for the Crimson Tide with 22 points (9-14 FG, 4-6 3 points).
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Here’s everything you need to know about betting on San Diego State vs. Alabama in the 2023 NCAA tournament, including updated odds, trends and our Sweet 16 matchup prediction.
Odds between San Diego State and Alabama
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Crimson Tide are 7.5-point favorites over the Aztecs, who head into Friday night’s Sweet 16 contest after the range opened at 6.5. Alabama receives 55 percent of the bets (50 percent of the handle) and 52 percent of the bets (55 percent of the handle) on the money line. The score is set at 136.5.
- spread: Alabama -7.5
- About Below: 136.5
- money line: State of San Diego (+280), Alabama (-375)
Three betting trends to keep an eye on
– The Crimson Tide are 18-12-1 against this season as favorites and 6-1 ATS with more than four days off.
— The Aztecs are 1-2 ATS as underdogs and 4-6-1 ATS with more than four days off this season. San Diego State is also 5-7-1 ATS in non-conference games.
– Alabama is 6-8-1 ATS in nonconference games this season but 12-3 right on the moneyline.
Major Players of the State of San Diego
The Aztecs are led by senior guard Matt Bradley, who was named to the All-Mountain West first team. This season, Bradley is averaging a team-high 13 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.1 rebounds per game. In two NCAA tournament games, the 6-4 guard averages 13.5 points, five rebounds and three assists per game. In addition to Bradley, opponents will have to rely on Darrion Trammell (9.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 RPG), Lamont Butler (8.6 PPG), Micah Parrish (7.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Jaedon LeDee (7.8 PPG and 5.2 RPG) beware. .
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Alabama key player
The Crimson Tide have three players scoring in double digits, led by Brandon Miller, who is averaging 19.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The freshman forward shoots 44.1 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from three-point range. Miller was named to the Consensus All-America second team that season for his efforts. Mark Sears (12.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG) and Noah Clowney (10 PPG and 7.9 RPG) round out Alabama’s top three scorers. The Aztecs will have to watch out for Jahvon Quinerly, who has scored 20 or more points in two of his last three games.
Best Singles Matchup: Matt Bradley vs. Jahvon Quinerly
Brandon Miller is the headliner in Friday night’s game, but we know the game will depend on the guards’ performance. Bradley didn’t shoot the ball well in San Diego State’s win over Furman (10 points at 3/10 FG and 0/3 3 points), but the team played great defense and received input from other players. However, for the Aztecs to progress, Bradley needs to be the top scorer on Friday night. As for Quinerly, he doesn’t have to be the top scorer since the Tide have Sears and Miller. However, if Quinerly can play like he did against Maryland in the second round, ‘Bama will be hard to stop. The former Villanova guard has played well this month, averaging 14.8 points per game with 45.6 percent shooting from the field and 36.4 percent from off the arc (seven games). Whoever gains the upper hand in this duel on Friday evening determines the outcome of this game.
San Diego State vs. Alabama stats to get you started
The Aztecs go into Friday’s game with one of the best defenses in the country (63.1 points per game, 25th in the NCAA) and a DRtg of 94.1. San Diego State is also exceptionally good at defending the three-point line at 28.8 percent (sixth in the NCAA) and rebounding 31.2 per game (30th in the NCAA). However, the Crimson Tide have good offense, scoring 82.3 points per game (fifth in the NCAA) and boasting a 111.1 ORtg (34th in the country). But don’t sleep on Alabama’s three-point defense as they allowed opponents to shoot just 28.1 percent this season.
San Diego State vs. Alabama Prediction
The Crimson Tide won’t win this game by double digits on Friday as the Aztecs’ defense is one of the best in the NCAA. San Diego State will want to slow the pace as the Tide have an explosive offense led by Miller, Sears and Quinerly. We’ll still take Alabama to move up to the Elite 8, but the Aztecs will cover it and see it through.
Forecast: Alabama 68, State of San Diego 64. State of San Diego (+7.5) covers the spread while the game is in progress UNDER the sum (136.5).
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