Tanner McKee draft projection: Why Stanford QB could be worth early-round selection
Stanford has amassed 14 wins over the past four seasons, but the Cardinal is starting to look like a quarterback factory.
In 2021, the little-known Davis Mills snuck into the early portion of the third round and became the Texans’ starting quarterback for parts of two seasons. Two years later, Tanner McKee is on his way to surprise even some of the most dedicated college football fans on draft night.
No, McKee won’t crash Bryce Young and CJ Stroud’s party at the head of the draft. He almost certainly won’t touch the range of Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, both of whom could come off the board early in the first round. Thereafter? Who knows.
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Here’s what you need to know about why McKee might be sneaking into the early rounds of the NFL draft.
Draft projection by Tanner McKee
Projecting McKee’s design range is difficult. The second tier of quarterback prospects is always difficult to gauge, which we’ve seen in full in 2022.
After Kenny Pickett came off the board in the first round, no team advanced against Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral until the middle of the third round, although many predictions placed them in the second round or higher.
Even Sam Howell, considered a likely Day 2 pick, slipped into the fifth round. Teams often reach for quarterbacks in the first round, but in the eyes of NFL front offices, there tends to be a fine line between those quarterbacks and the next tier.
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As of now, McKee’s range appears to be in the late second or early third round. NFL Network’s Chad Reuter drafted the Lions McKee 81st in his February mock draft, while a January mock draft by DraftWire saw McKee drafted in the 40th pick.
SN’s Vinnie Iyer ranks McKee as his No. 6 QB, but there’s a huge gap between the top four quarterbacks and the next tier of Hendon Hooker (No. 74 overall) and McKee (No. 80 overall).
Quarterbacks rank high, and it only takes a team to fall in love with their potential for McKee to be drafted higher than expected. Here’s what quarterback-needy teams might be interested in.
Why Tanner McKee Stock Could Soar
Iyer calls the Stanford quarterback a “classic, strong, big pocket passer with a system-versatile sensibility.” This type of profile sparked interest in Mills two years ago, and it’s partly what attracts scouts to Levis that led to this design. McKee’s appeal is what could be, not what he already was.
McKee didn’t have the typical numbers or win totals of a top-tier quarterback prospect at Stanford, but many prospects who have those accolades don’t get to the next level.
Josh Allen is the quintessential example of why college numbers shouldn’t necessarily scare teams away from a quarterback. Allen struggled with accuracy and turnover issues in Wyoming, and he didn’t win much despite attending a non-power conference. Still, his ridiculous arm strength and skill level captivated teams.
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McKee is (probably) not Allen. However, he has impressive arm strength and size. While he doesn’t have the playmaking skills that Allen does, McKee was mostly accurate at Stanford and rarely turned the ball over.
That’s the kind of profile that could make McKee a high-floor prospect who can at least be a viable NFL quarterback if he doesn’t develop into a long-term starter.
Tanner McKee College Statistics
| season | games | completion rate | meter | TD | INT |
| 2021 | 10 | 65.4% | 2,327 | 15 | 7 |
| 2022 | 12 | 62.0% | 2,947 | 13 | 8th |
| In total | 24 | 63.2% | 5,336 | 28 | 15 |
McKee was rumored as a potential first-round contender after a decent first season at Stanford when he wasn’t asked to throw the ball too often.
His 2022 season will almost certainly keep him out of that area. McKee saw a decline in yards per attempt and touchdowns despite throwing more often. Stanford fought back a 3-9 record, leading to the end of coach David Shaw’s tenure at Palo Alto. The problems at Stanford went well beyond the quarterback position, however.
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Mills didn’t have any gaudy numbers before being drafted 67th overall in 2021. Limited in part to the shortened season due to the COVID-19 season, he threw for 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions and 3,468 yards.
McKee hasn’t left much to the imagination with his 24 games that could hurt him, but predictions suggest teams still see something in his ability that could make him worthy of a Day Two pick.