UEFA Champions League permutations, scenarios: How Chelsea can advance and qualify to quarterfinals 2023

March 7, 2023 Abraham Smith

Another week and we’ll be down to eight teams in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League as the round of 16 second legs unfold.

Four sides – AC Milan, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund – will narrowly lead 1-0 in those crucial returns, while RB Leipzig and Manchester City are stuck 1-1 after the opening 90 minutes in Germany.

Leading Napoli and Benfica by two goals and Real Madrid by three, barring an incredible collapse, they are likely to join the competition’s elite eight.

The Sporting News breaks down each draw and what each team needs to do to progress. As a reminder, away goals no longer serve as tiebreakers as of last season. If the teams are level after 180 minutes, there is extra time and, if necessary, penalties to determine a winner.

MORE: All the details on the Champions League quarter-finals draw

Chelsea versus Borussia Dortmund

1st stage: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Chelsea (February 15)
2nd stage: Tuesday 7th March (Stamford Bridge)

Dortmund still have work to do to cope with the surprise. A goal from Karim Adeyemi in a full sprint has given the Black and Yellows the narrowest lead, but Chelsea will be heartened to know they deserved more from that first leg in Germany.

MORE: Chelsea vs Dortmund prediction and best bets

How Chelsea can progress to the Quarterfinals

Win by two or more goals: Chelsea advance to quarterfinals
Win by one goal: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Draw or defeat: Chelsea are eliminated

How Borussia Dortmund can move into the quarter-finals

Win or Draw: Dortmund moves into the quarterfinals
One goal loss: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Two-goal loss or worse: Dortmund is eliminated

Benfica vs Club Brugge

1st stage: Club Brugge 0-2 Benfica Lisbon (February 15)
2nd stage: Tuesday, March 7th (Estadio da Luz)

Benfica provided good value for money in their 2-0 win in Belgium and there’s no reason to believe they won’t dominate again at home. But Brugge are dangerous on the break and beat Benfica rivals Porto 4-0 in the group stage in Portugal.

MORE: Benfica vs Club Brugge best bets and predictions

How Benfica can advance to the quarterfinals

Win, draw or lose by one goal: Benfica advance to quarterfinals
Defeat by two goals: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Defeat by three or more goals: Benfica is eliminated

How Club Brugge can reach the quarterfinals

Win by three or more goals: Club Brugge advances to quarterfinals
Victory by two goals: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Loss, draw or win by one goal: Club Brugge is eliminated

Tottenham Hotspur vs AC Milan

1st stage: AC Milan 1-0 Tottenham (February 14)
2nd stage: Wednesday 8 March (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

After conceding an early goal in Italy, Tottenham arguably did well to return home with just a narrow defeat. Spurs will be banking on their ability to up the intensity in London with manager Antonio Conte back on the sidelines after a break following surgery. AC Milan, meanwhile, are dreaming of a return to the quarter-finals for the first time in over a decade (2011/12).

How Tottenham can advance to the Quarterfinals

Win by two or more goals: Tottenham advance to quarterfinals
Win by one goal: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Draw or defeat: Tottenham are eliminated

How AC Milan can reach the quarterfinals

Win or Draw: AC Milan advances to the Quarterfinals
One goal loss: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Two-goal loss or worse: AC Milan are eliminated

Bayern Munich vs PSG

1st stage: PSG 0-1 FC Bayern Munich (14.02.)
2nd stage: Wednesday, March 8th (Allianz Arena)

Bayern deserved to win in Paris but they will remember how the momentum changed completely after Kylian Mbappe came on midway through the second half. This time, the 2022 World Cup top scorer will be there from the start and, even without the injured Neymar, will single-handedly test the German champions as PSG continue to dream of their first Champions League title.

How Bayern Munich can reach the quarterfinals

Win or Draw: Bayern move into the quarterfinals
One goal loss: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Two-goal loss or worse: Bavaria is eliminated

How PSG can advance to the quarterfinals

Win by two or more goals: PSG advance to the Quarterfinals
Win by one goal: Extra time (and penalties if applicable)
Draw or defeat: PSG is eliminated

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