Ukraine Latest: Poland Oil Deliveries Cut; Russia Denies Talks

(Bloomberg) —

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Friday that his country will secure victory if allies maintain their support, possibly this year. “I am sure that there will be victory,” Zelenskiy told reporters in Kyiv. 

The EU formally adopted its 10th sanctions package against Russia. Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 wealthy nations struggled at a meeting in India to find common language to describe Russia’s invasion. A US-led coalition within the group called for more pressure on Vladimir Putin’s regime. 

Poland’s largest oil company said it had stopped receiving oil via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia. Russia’s foreign ministry denied a recent comment from the Swiss foreign minister that discrete, lower-level talks on a possible peace accord are being held in Geneva. 

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Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding

You can follow all our special coverage of the one year mark of Russia’s invasion via our website, on Twitter and on Bloomberg Television, including live broadcasts from Kyiv. You can also read our biggest pieces from the past week on Flipboard. 

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)  

Listen to our special conversations from this week, including our Twitter Space yesterday analyzing Zelenskiy’s press conference as it happened. We also discussed the military strategies of the war, the impact on energy and the environment, the effect of sanctions including on the wealth of Russia’s oligarchs and what the future holds for Ukrainian refugees. 

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Big Take Podcast: How Does Ukraine Continue to Beat Back Russia? 

Key Developments

On the Ground: 

Russia’s main efforts continue to be focused on conducting offensive operations on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtars’ke axes, the Ukrainian General Staff said on Facebook. Russia carried out 27 airstrikes and 75 attacks from MLRS. Around Bakhmut, Kremlin troops are actively conducting aerial reconnaissance to adjust artillery fire. Russian troops shelled towns in Dnipropetrovsk region with heavy artillery, damaging three schools, 10 apartment buildings, 11 private houses, electricity lines and local gas transportation pipelines. 

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(All times CET)

Poland’s Says Russia Cuts Oil Deliveries Via Key Pipeline (1:36 p.m.)

Poland’s largest oil company, PKN Orlen SA stopped receiving oil via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, Chief Executive Officer Daniel Obajtek said in a tweet. Orlen said consumers won’t be impacted by the halt, which it said it prepared for without giving the reason for the situation. 

Read more:  Poland’s Orlen Says Russia Cuts Oil Supply Via Key Pipeline 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry Denies Talks in Switzerland (1:14 p.m.)

Russia isn’t holding negotiations on the Ukrainian situation in Switzerland since it no longer considers the country neutral after it joined anti-Russian sanctions, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in comments on the ministry website.  

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Zakhorova was referring to comments this week by Ignazio Cassis, the Swiss foreign minister, who told the Le Temps newspaper this week that secret, “non-high-level” talks on trying to reach a peace settlement are under way in Geneva. 

Switzerland can no longer pretend to play any intermediary role, including providing a venue for talks, Zakharova said. 

Scholz Says China’s Proposal on Ukraine Has ‘Light and Shadow’ (1:05 p.m.)

The German chancellor, who’s in India for two days, said China’s position paper on ways toward a cease-fire in Ukraine contained both light and shadow. The 12-point plan has been roundly dismissed as offering clear benefits to Russia. 

Olaf Scholz said he welcomed the “red lines” described by Beijing on the use of nuclear weapons, but criticized the lack of any demand by China that Russia pull its troops out of occupied territory in Ukraine. “A dictated peace manufactured by Russia isn’t an option,” Scholz said. 

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Read more: China Cease-Fire Proposal for Ukraine Falls Flat With US, Allies

EU Formally Adopts 10th Sanctions Package Against Russia (12 p.m.) 

A year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU member states formally adopted a 10th package of sanctions on Moscow including tighter export restrictions and technology controls, as well as requiring banks to report information on Russian Central Bank and other sanctioned assets they hold.  

The bloc’s envoys signed off on the measures late Friday ahead of its final ratification. The EU also imposed measures against individuals and entities supporting the war, spreading the propaganda, or delivering drones by Russia. 

The measures come amid a push to better enforce existing sanctions and crack down on companies circumventing them. 

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War, Debt Impasse Cloud G-20 Finance Chiefs’ Talks (11:43 a.m.)

An eighth draft of a communiqué being discussed among the world’s top finance chiefs showed lingering tensions over language concerning Russia’s year-long war in Ukraine. 

The sticking points over how to characterize Russia’s invasion was new, compared with the strong language adopted in Indonesia at a G-20 leaders’ meeting in November. 

Discussions toward finding a common language to describe the world’s challenges “are getting more difficult as the war goes on,”  Nadia Calvino, Spain’s deputy prime minister, told reporters. 

Read more: War, Debt Impasse Cloud G-20 Finance Chiefs’ Final-Day Talks 

Macron Plans to Visit China in April, Urges Russia Out (11:30 a.m.)

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Emmanuel Macron will visit China in early April, the French president told reporters on Saturday. 

He praised China’s move to become involved in efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine, while reiterating that peace “is possible only if it comes first with an end to Russian aggression, withdrawal of troops and respect for the territorial sovereignty of the Ukrainian people.” 

“China must now help us to put pressure on Russia, of course, so that it never uses chemical or nuclear weapons, which China has already done, but that it stops this aggression as a prelude to negotiations,” Macron said.  

More Ukrainians Are Moving Abroad for Good (9:30 a.m.) 

More than 8 million Ukrainians, mostly women and children, fled the country after Russia’s invasion a year ago – and many are staying away. 

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The United Nations has called it Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II, and Ukraine has been tipped into a spiral of demographic decline that’s likely to damage its post-war growth prospects as well. 

On Friday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy implored Ukrainians to return once it’s safe to do so. 

Read more: More Ukrainians Are Settling Abroad as War Grinds On

Russia Running Low on Iranian Drones, UK Says (9 a.m.)

Consistent with this week’s reporting from Bloomberg, the UK defense ministry said Russia has depleted its stock of Iranian-made drones and will likely seek a new batch. 

There’ve been no reports of Iranian one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs) being used in Ukraine since about Feb. 15, the ministry said on Twitter.  

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“Although the weapons do not have a good record in destroying their intended targets, Russia likely sees them as useful decoys which can divert Ukrainian air defences from more effective Russian cruise missiles.”  

Read more: Russia May Be Running Low on Iranian Drones, Awaits New Supplies

UK Nears Deal on More Defense Spending (8 a.m.)

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is close to a deal with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on extra funding, the Telegraph reported.  

The ministry is said to be seeking an extra £10 billion ($11.9 billion) and said a deal was “not very far away” ahead of the UK budget that’s due in March. The funds are badly needed, and “the Prime Minister gets it,” Wallce told Times Radio.

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“We are hollowing out our forces. Our allies and partners are all investing in defense. Every single previous prime minister I can think of would have responded to that,” Wallace said.

Russia, China Naval Drills Under Way Off South Africa (7:30 a.m.)

Joint naval exercises involving China, Russia and South Africa are under way as planned, TASS reported, citing the African nation’s defense ministry. The operation is expected to run through Monday. 

Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko said in a statement on Friday that Ukraine was “deeply concerned” about the drills and said South Africa was “adopting the experience of the Russian war machine.”

“We call on the Republic of South Africa not to encourage further Russian aggression and its sense of impunity,” he said. 

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Read more: Russia, South Africa, China to Simulate Air Attacks in Exercise

Belarus President to Visit China From Tuesday (7 a.m.)

Alexander Lukashenko will make a state visit to China Feb. 28-March 2, including a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Global Times reported, citing Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying.   

Biden Rules Out Giving Ukraine F-16s ‘For Now’ (4:10 a.m.)

President Joe Biden said he is ruling out Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets at this time, despite increased pressure from Zelenskiy.

“He doesn’t need F-16s now,” Biden said in an interview with ABC News broadcast Friday evening. “I am ruling it out for now.”

The US has resisted sending Ukraine F-16 warplanes over concerns their delivery could further escalate the war, which is entering its second year. 

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Biden Doesn’t Anticipate China Giving Russia Weapons Aid (4:10 a.m.)

Biden said he doesn’t expect China will provide significant assistance to Russia in the form of weapons to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine, but warned any such action would draw a US response.

“I don’t anticipate — we haven’t seen it yet — but I don’t anticipate a major initiative on the part of China providing weaponry to Russia,” Biden said in the ABC News interview. 

World Bank Announces $2.5 Billion in New Ukraine Aid (7:45 p.m.)

The World Bank announced $2.5 billion in grant financing for Ukraine to provide budget support for essential services and core government functions, bringing funding it has mobilized to help the country to almost $21 billion.

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The new funds, which will come from the US Agency for International Development, will help with key areas including health care, schools, payment of pensions, payments for displaced people, social assistance programs and wages for public employees.

The Washington-based World Bank gives the money to Ukraine after verifying eligible expenses, rather than transferring it upfront, to help minimize the risk of corruption.

Zelenskiy Casts Doubt on Chinese Weapon Supplies to Russia (6:27 p.m.)

Ukraine’s president said he hopes China will stand with Ukraine, on the side of “just peace” – and lauded Beijing for beginning to address Ukraine. He expressed optimism that China embraces the principle of territorial integrity.

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“I strongly believe that China will not supply weapons to the Russian Federation – for me it is important, for me it is the No. 1 point,” Zelenskiy said. “I’ll do everything to prevent this.”

The US has begun to issue warnings that China is weighing deliveries of lethal weapons to Russia. Beijing denies any such considerations even as its top diplomat this week called relations with Moscow “solid as a mountain.” Zelenskiy said the task is to “gather all to isolate one,” adding that “we should work with China.”

Iran-Russia Cooperation Is Expanding, Kirby Says (6:06 p.m.)

The US believes that defense cooperation between Iran and Russia is intensifying, and that Moscow may offer Tehran fighter jets in addition to the existing flows of missiles, electronics and air-defense systems, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

Iran is also seeking to purchase billions of dollars in military equipment — including attack helicopters, combat trainer aircraft, and radar — from Russia, Kirby said. The US didn’t provide evidence for that finding or information about how that intelligence determination was reached.

Zelenskiy Again Rules Out Talks With Putin (5:51 p.m.)

President Zelenskiy reiterated that talks with his Russian counterpart are unacceptable. 

“There is nobody there to speak with now,” he told reporters when asked if he would accept a hypothetical offer to meet with Putin in Turkey.