Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy warns ‘war is returning to Russia’; reports of ‘fierce fighting’ in northeast | World News

By Sean Bell, military analyst 

While pressure builds on President Zelenskyy to deliver some form of progress with the Ukrainian offensive, he is not the only leader under pressure.

Away from the battlefields, there is growing evidence that President Putin’s authority and support base is waning as cracks start to form in the foundations of his regime.

Is there a whiff of blood in the air around Moscow, and will Putin’s evident troubles provide Ukraine (and the international community) the opportunity to capitalise?

Although Putin would have felt emboldened by Russia’s relatively simple success in annexing Crimea in 2014, he could never have imagined that, nearly 18 months into his invasion of Ukraine, Russia could have become embroiled in such an attritional and damaging conflict.

Putin’s ambitions to halt the expansion of NATO, restore Russian “greatness”, and grow the Russian economy, have all failed to materialise. Instead, NATO has expanded, Russia has become a pariah on the global stage, and its economy is suffering under a mass of Western sanctions.

Although the Russian population is fed a Kremlin-controlled diet of Russia-friendly news, the Russian elite – whose support Putin requires – are feeling the growing impact of the sanctions.

Oil and gas revenues remain strong, but with over one million fighting-age Russian males having fled to avoid conscription, the Russian economy is contracting. And the elite will also be aware that Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court will have enduing impacts on Russia’s ability to recover once the conflict is over.

Putin is rapidly becoming the problem that Russia needs to solve.

Following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive coup attempt, Putin will be concerned at the apparent ease with which he was able to advance on Moscow. Did he act alone or were his actions a barometer of wide discontent?

Authoritarian leaders generally do not enjoy a comfortable retirement – they usually suffer a swift and often brutal end as a successor sweeps to power. But, Putin cannot afford a widespread purge for fear of fanning the flames of a further coup, leaving him struggling to know who he can trust.

Russia’s limited military successes to date have been delivered by the Wagner mercenaries, but they can no longer be trusted by Putin. Russia is on the back foot in Ukraine, but Putin will also need to bolster his domestic security, and retaining his grip on power will be a priority.

Read Bell’s full analysis below…